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1. 中人物 2012-06-25 12:37:32 |
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在下不明白, 現時入市一手樓的不是以用家為主嗎? 既是自用, 又何懼樓市高低?
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2. 無明 2012-06-25 12:59:36 |
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一手樓除了真正用家, 亦一定有部份投資者, 所以每次新盤銷售後都有100-500個租盤走出來, 租客又可以搬屋有新樓住。如果每年20,000個新樓, 無投資者購買的話, 可能不能全部消化, 估計發展商應該是一面放售新盤, 一面減少買地或低價買地, 反正低價來補地價亦可提供可發展地盤。 |
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3. 目标三间屋 2012-06-25 14:13:25 |
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投资者不一定是炒家. 现在炒家是少了, 可投资者还是市场里. |
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4. real user paradox 2012-06-25 15:05:48 |
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Actually, I cannot agree that someone claim the real users dosen't care the property price drop. Just imagine the extreme, if you buy a flat for 1 million, and it drops to 1 thousand, do you still can claim you would not care as you are the real user? The truth is all other buyers can buy the similar flats at mush lower price but you still sit on en expensive one. Although this is just the extreme, the logic is the same. You may say there is no way the price would drop so crazy and I agree that is the exterme scenario, I just want to tell even the real user would care the drop in reality, or you should refine your sentence that the real user dosen't care a small drop in price but not the large drop. Don't cheat yourself please. |
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5. Mortgage 2012-06-25 15:15:16 |
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to 4/f Totally agree with you. Especially when your flat is still mortgaged, you have always to keep updated with the market. |
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6. 言平 2012-06-25 15:23:35 |
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按揭 物業月供額以息口及承做按揭時成本為基礎 (at cost basis). 隨後物業價格波動 (market value) 唔會影響月供額. 自用業主對息口波動更關注, 因會直接影響月供額度. |
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7. 目标三间屋 2012-06-25 15:32:54 |
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自住物业如果跌得太惨也担心给银行追差价嘛. 还有物业大跌后, 本地经济也不会好到哪里去. 保住工作变得非常重要, 那能不担心. 可是自住物业的优点在于可以守. 因为反正需要住. 小弟愚见, 请指教. |
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8. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 15:35:54 |
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汤博士点解会想当然呢？今时今日的地产霸权，政府点敢比合理的补地价，唔怕被废青闹官商勾结吗？最近政府一切从严，已经令好多新楼都延期开售，新地的龙门，还有长实的峻瀅原本都是第一季计划开售。峻瀅延期到第二季未，龙门就不知何年和月。 多大地產商其實已經囤積了不少地，大多數是農地，他們只是等待地價最低的時間才申請補地價，當C.Y.一上場，掌握各大地產商所囤積的農地，必定會定出一個合理補地價，在未來三、五年，各大地產商亦要儲備資金，準備開發，屆時，供應一定多，所以地產商現在儘量賣樓其實是有目的。
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9. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 15:56:55 |
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几个月前，我经常说多行不义必自毙。CY未上台，他的武功已经被废了一半。基本上可以说是难成大器。 |
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10. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 16:03:24 |
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还有博士讲的新楼，我觉得年98年单单将军澳，就有接近万个供应。还有当时的重灾区，西九，青衣，东涌。 今日全港发展商可以提供的供应都系1万左右。 |
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11. 實用呎價過萬 2012-06-25 16:21:48 |
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12. real user paradox 2012-06-25 17:16:06 |
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To 6/F, Just give a survey, 1. the interest rate increase, so you need to pay more for monthly repayment but on the same time your flat's price also increase and the increase is far more than the sum of increase in repayment (Remember is far more). 2. interest rate decrease, you can pay less in repayment but on the same time your flat's price also decrease and the decrease is more than the sum of increase in repayment (Again, remember the drop is huge here). Which one you would choose? According to "real user" logic, you would choose no. 2 coz you care only the real payment. But I think I would choose no. 1 and I believe I would not be the only one choose one no matter you are the real user or investor. If I am the real user, I would not care to see the repayment increase by only few hundred per month but the property price increase by millions. |
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13. 言平 2012-06-25 18:23:30 |
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To 12. 你將息口升同樓價升劃上等號; 又將息口跌同樓價跌劃上等號. |
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14. 请“真正用家”不要再说自欺欺人的废话 2012-06-25 18:33:24 |
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房屋从来都是用品，也是投资品，尤其是在香港（寸金尺土之地）。如房屋只能使用，不能转售，试问各位会花费数以百万千万买一间“房”吗？请那些“真正用家”不要再说什么“既是自用，又何懼樓市高低”自欺欺人的废话，好吗？ |
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15. real user paradox 2012-06-25 18:44:55 |
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To 13/F, I think you misunderstand my intention. I am not going to show the interest rate rise is equal to the flat price's increase. Let me clarify, all I want to show is even the real users do not really not care about the price fluctuation. Of course, they care the payment amount, this is no doubt about this, noone will so stupid to argue that the user like to see the payment increase, this is contrary to common sense. But in some situations, the users do not only focus on the repayment, they also care the price. I just pick these kinds of situations and prompt you to think which one will you choose. In reality, of course, the price may increase or decrease despite the interest rate movement, this is common sense and econ 101, noone will care to argue that. Get my point? |
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16. 房屋政策 2012-06-25 18:57:25 |
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博士也轉淡. |
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17. 回上 2012-06-25 20:05:29 |
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博士一早轉淡啦，乜你唔知佢已叫人防守嗎？ |
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18. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 20:38:37 |
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長實(0001)峻瀅呎價5313元绝对不便宜。以长实的品牌，加上位置，加上发水。 |
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19. X觀點 2012-06-25 20:43:09 |
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用家心態是『供樓平過交租』時便供得心境舒暢，即使當時樓價在下跌中亦不大介懷，因為供樓是長期的事(動不動十多廿年)，樓價中短期有波動何須理會，反正長期是整體向上格局，現在跌將來升突可以說是必然的 (回顧香港二戰後房地產價格便知)，反為每個月供款愈供愈貴，即使樓價颷升身家多了，亦不覺特別開心！因為無可能賣了樓之後去瞓街！ |
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20. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 22:04:14 |
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德国楼价一样爆升，虽然德国有很严格的租管， 該國租樓比率也十分高，令到國民不會淪為房奴。德國現在有近六成居民租樓，在年輕人當中，租樓的更佔77%。據德國法律規定，業主需以書面陳述加租理由，而且一般加幅不得高於一成。業主若加租過高，已屬違法。不過，當大城市樓價不斷上升，加租潮一觸即發。 |
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21. 向饭民说不 2012-06-25 22:10:40 |
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香港楼价真正的风险是大陆经济硬着陆。大陆无论国企还是民企，都不太乐观。间间公司都做数。这才是我最担心的。 |
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22. 小市民 2012-06-26 00:18:09 |
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"自用, 又何懼樓市高低" 這句話用來騙人入市.至於騙什麼人? 1 很想置業而又拿不定主意的人會用這句說話而自我蒙蔽,甚至用以說服家人. 2 分析力較弱,自信不足的人會以為某些名人之言不會錯.
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23. 目标三间屋 2012-06-26 09:28:03 |
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回17，博士不单说“守”，他直接说“走”的需要啦。 回22，那些“很想置業而又拿不定主意”和“分析力較弱,自信不足”的人在甚么时候入市风险都会大。没有这一句"自用, 又何懼樓市高低"，还会有其他的。不用咬文嚼字。 |
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24. Mortgage 2012-06-26 09:52:06 |
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7/F: "自住物业如果跌得太惨也担心给银行追差价嘛. 还有物业大跌后, 本地经济也不会好到哪里去. 保住工作变得非常重要, 那能不担心. 可是自住物业的优点在于可以守. 因为反正需要住. " That's what the real user like me worry. I hope I could pay up mortgage within 10 years. Afterwards I could have more savings for retirement and kid's education. |
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25. real user paradox 2012-06-26 10:07:36 |
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一個真實例子, 我有一個朋友, 他的上司薪金比他多不知多少, 卻在00年以1000萬買下一個半山單位, 他他的上司一直是我朋友的工作目標, 結果是, 我的朋友沒升職加薪, 但由於樓價下挫, 他在05年只需500萬便可買了一個差不多大小的同地段半山單位. 當然, 朋友的上司由於有穩定工作, 挨至現在已經賺突, 但問題是, is this really doesn’t matter? How many years can you save 5mio if your are employee? Wrong timing to buy flat can write off all your achievement in the workplace. In the end, my friend has the similar living standard as his boss coz he has less mortgage repayment and hence more to spend due to he can buy the flat at much lower price but not due to his “ability”. They both are real users, just the time of buying can make my friend has better living standard than his boss. |
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26. To 22/F 小市民 2012-06-26 10:08:21 |
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If you know yourself enough (ability to fulfill actual needs), you might not care much for other's sayings. And remember everyone's situation is unique, their opinions may often not suit for you. But the common issue is to prepare for the worst. If you have such worries as what you said, propably you are not capable to bearing the risk. The foremost you should do is to enhance your earning ability. |
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27. Mortgage 2012-06-26 10:15:22 |
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To: 25. real user paradox What I think is your friend very lucky: buy low, sell high (the evergreen rule of investment world) If you are not lucky enough, then you have to make yourself capable enough of affording your enjoyment (like your friend's boss). Once you have that capability, most often you wouldnt care much. |
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28. 週蜆 2012-06-26 11:04:22 |
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撰文:周顯
欄名:周顯手記
我在大約一年前，在本欄一而再、再而三地預測，中共將會部署接收香港，打擊地產霸權，四大地產商將風光不再，因為親中的地產商將會上位。當時，好像有不少 讀者說我是編劇，嗤之以鼻，並且大加取笑。固然，我的確是一個編劇，而且還是一個優秀的編劇，但是，我的預言也證實了是出奇的正確。
其實有這種思維並不困難，只要熟悉政治，不，不是那種日日看報紙的政治，而是政治理論、心理、鬥爭、歷史、中國權鬥慣用的手法等等，就可以料事如神。不過 香港人是不讀書的，也從來不懂政治，那些金融地產大亨，說出來的政治想法，往往可笑得令人「踎低噴飯」，所以其被整，也就一點也不出奇了。
中央先收拾土豪惡霸
這些地產霸權料不到他們臣服中央，居然還被整肅。這是因為他們沒讀歷史：當年西南方的土司也是臣服清廷，結果雍正皇帝還不也是改土歸流，要把土司的世襲權 力收回來，改回朝廷指派的流官去擔任？中國有一句古語，叫「臥榻之側，豈容他人鼾睡」，這些土蛋當然沒有讀過，所以遭殃也是必然的。
但是，就是料事如神的周顯大師，也只是料到地產霸權的風光不再，卻決料不到「阿爺」出手竟然如此凶殘，真的要一舖打謝他們。然而話說回來，以本地權貴的勢力盤根錯節，不用刀去砍，要慢慢的一個一個結去解，不知解到何年何月，才可以解完也。
至於新界的土豪，更是可笑，竟然揚言七一會有數萬人上街示威。為甚麼林鄭會如此落力去拆僭健？因為新界土豪的權力，就是來自村民相信他有能力保護村民的利益，所以，只要拆掉了僭健，村民很快就會發現其保護神已被廢了武功，就會改拜地主了。
下一步：向下炒地產
至於今後的政經局勢，我的忠告是：賣樓、賣樓、賣樓！因為下一步就是引入中資的新貴，而家陣樓價咁貴，新貴如何入來？如果新貴不能掌握金權，那又如何統治 香港？中國實行的是國家資本主義，香港的未來，也會實行這一套，因為中央掌握了香港政府，而政府掌握了財富，那就代表了中央控制了香港。但是現在香港的財 富都掌擁在巨富的手上，根本無法有效管治。
用炒股票的角度比喻：手花散哂，不如供一手，供番乾先啦！而把地價打下去，再任由中資低價狂買，就是向下炒，供番乾的法子。所以照我的看法，地產是非大跌 7成不可的，因為這是政治任務。至於地產大跌後的風險如何評估，我也早有分析，坊間一般的討論不值一駁也。舉個例子，說會製造出大量負資產，其實這幾年的 樓宇供應量這麼少、按揭成數又這麼低，就算是樓價再度大跌7成，負資產的數字不會比得上2003年的2成。中央政府一定做過相類似的評估，所以樓價大跌根 本不會影響到今日的經濟結構，你估仲係10幾年前咩！
最後，各位可參考筆者在去年寫下的文章，可見得我的預見力，證明我並非吹牛，自作馬後炮的事後孔明。 |
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29. 言平 2012-06-26 11:09:52 |
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To 25. 請問你個friend賣左樓未? 佢依家係: (a)"身家豐厚, 現金沒有" 定係 (b) "身家豐厚, 現金喺手, 但冇左層樓"? "身家豐富" 我地應該恭喜佢; 但係"現金沒有" 或者 "冇左層樓" 咁真係唔知點同佢講. |
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30. Mortgage 2012-06-26 11:25:50 |
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To: 28/F 週蜆 Funny viewpoint of "politics first economics second". I appreciate it but bare insights to take practical actions for the real users with only one property. |
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31. 言平 2012-06-26 11:50:53 |
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To 15. "in some situations, the users do not only focus on the repayment, they also care the price." Indeed, we could not find your further elaborations on what situations the real users also care the price, both in (12) and (15). The property price increases and the real users care. Other than you put the presumption to draw your conclusion; we could not see the connections in between. Please help us to get your point. |
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32. 言平 2012-06-26 12:03:04 |
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To 15. 我們要說的是用家可以無需理會樓價波動, 因為按揭支出大抵已經鎖住. 至於佢會唔會關注樓價波動, 唔係我o既point. 再者佢日日查樓價, 咁又點. "身家豐厚" 佢會開心; "現金沒有"佢會閉嗡. 棧攪到精神分裂. 人生苦短, 活在當下. Life is simple. 簡簡單單咪算囉. 何必攪到自己呢. 仲有層樓要供嫁, 多花d心機揾真銀供甩層樓仲好啦. |
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33. 峻瀅低開$4993/呎起 2012-06-26 12:14:13 |
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34. real user paradox 2012-06-26 12:17:19 |
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I think it is enough argument. I am sorry that if I cannot convince to you guys that the price fluctuation does matter. Anyway, my friend dosen't sell his property yet and so does his boss. But the truth is my friend's boss told my friend when in happy hour drink that they get similar spending income after deduction of mortgage payment. My friend thinks he tells the truth coz his boss should know what is my friend's salary. In the end, my friend and his boss are real users, may be they both dosen't care the price fluctuation coz it is just the wealth on paper. But in reality, my friend can have similar living standard as his boss only because he "choose" the right time to enter the market (may be he is only lucky or may be he has the good judgement). This is the end of story. |
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35. 言平 2012-06-26 12:19:56 |
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康城地鐵站+日出康城幾千伙, 一間地產鋪都冇, 異象. 要出番將軍澳站至有. |
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36. 言平 2012-06-26 12:31:38 |
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To 34. 你朋友入市時間理想, 抵佢跟佢老闆有同樣享受, 佢值得o既. 恭喜佢. 同一件事情, 揾個好角度去享受咪好囉. 簡單d. 希望大家都買到自己鍾意o既樓. 自用o既住得開心; 投資o既賺到錢. |
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37. A 女子 2012-06-27 02:21:29 |
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非常同意28周生論點!!樓市已近瘋狂!!良心忠告各位走為上著!!勿忘 負資產慘痛教訓!!敢言!! |
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38. A 女子 2012-06-27 02:50:40 |
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T01. 人人玩緊接火棒 用家又係炒家!!500萬買500尺 西九樓 好合理咩? 儍瓜遊戲 分分鐘輸死!!! |
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39. 黄生 2012-06-27 04:43:12 |
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其实香港政府有没有跟美国及中国狂印银纸？ |
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40. 肥師奶 2012-06-27 08:19:57 |
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港元不是國際儲備貨幣,不負責印錢必死得難看, 因此現今當香港有一美元儲備, 可以打印一美元價值港元. |
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41. 向饭民说不 2012-06-27 09:49:44 |
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39楼，PEG之下，美国佬，印多少，香港就要印多少。这就是香港楼价升的根本原因。 美国佬印钞票支持楼价，香港也印钞票，令楼价上升。 |
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42. 股Joy 2012-06-27 09:50:50 |
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五窮六絕七上吊，歐債已臨跳崖邊緣，7月食大茶飯！
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43. 肥師奶 2012-06-27 10:33:40 |
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正如我所說, 當香港有擁有一美元儲備才可以打印一美元等價港元, 現今香港聯繫匯率是1美元兌7.80港元, 當美國不負責任地印鈔票, 香港的港元購買力事實上是被嚴重地低估了. 簡單來說, 美国可以印钞票, 香港不能, 因此聯繫匯率讓港元被嚴重地低估了,港元被低估的直接影響就是大家看到的通貨膨脹現像了.
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