各位，早晨

期待湯博士明天的文章。

在這個網站支持樓偠上升的人不少。

但我倒最想看到睇跌的論點。

可能多方面思考。

但我本人還是覺得現時市況是大脹小回，屬正常調整。

謝謝！

事實上，招標的確是最黑箱、透明度最低的出售方式，於整個過程中買家完全處於被動狀態，想中標卻又怕以過高溢價購入項目。生殺大權由賣家說了算，即使賣家明益自己人也不會亦不能被揭穿......甚至可以說，招標是最容易導致貪污的售賣方式。

本人之前的評論指出政府不應賤賣土地，因土地為香港最貴重資產，其所得收益用於政府財政支出的所有範疇---土地賤賣了，損害的不只是政府的利益，更是全港市民的利益。

但這不等於要求所有土地應改用招標形式出售。

拍賣是公開公平公正的出售方式，如果不滿地產商出價過低，可以調高底價---地產商出價不夠高便收回，何需害怕收回土地？

如果因為害怕地產商在拍賣土地標政府松柴的話，可以拿部份土地作招標，例如先拿四份一作招標---既可防止地產商太懂利用拍賣機制，又可防止招標因其黑箱性質而引起的各種問題，一箭雙鵰！

更何況，既然地產商可以串通鋤低拍賣價，他們亦可圍標，使土地不能以合理價錢賣出。由此可見，拍賣與招標並行方為上策，而較公平的拍賣亦應佔多些比例。

一言敝之：黑箱招標問題多，改善拍賣是正途。

南昌站幅地舊年攞過出黎招標，但最終流左標，但你問 100個香港人，有拾幾個會知呢件事？ 
但如果呢幅地係拍賣嘅話，如果賣唔出？咁出曬電視直播，上曬報紙頭條，咁樓市重唔死？  
政府先係香港高樓價嘅推手，係可能嘅情況下，拒地最希望樓價穩步上升，咁當然只係希望，未必做得到！

"2008年為甚麼會急挫"

本人記得, 湯博士亦曾提出過, 測量師是黑手, 他們曾經預測樓價會大瀉, 引致市場上信心比較低的部份業主恐慌性賣樓

Negative factors to support HK property falling to 20% to 50%

Marco Factors

1. Risk of Global recession due to Greece default and its debt.
2. Slowdown of US and Euro economy.
3. Austerity measures by China, less money inflow to Hong Kong.
4. Lag effect of property price due to Global stock market turns to bearish because Cash is King.
5. Money goes to safety heaven, US bonds and gold.
6. Strong US dollar in a cyclical bull market is under formation. Correlationship between strong US dollar and weak HK property price.

Micro Factors

7. The result of Land auction is lower than the Market expectation.
8. Slight change housing supply policy by the Government in terms of tendering and pledge to continual land supply not less than 20,000 units over the next few years.
9. Less potential foreign buyers to invest the luxury property due to comparatively expensive than other financial centre.
10. Worry of HOS prelaunch to the market to affect the supply and demand balance.
11. The loan to value ratio reduces from 70% to 50%, it restricts the potential buyers.
12. Mortgage rate is increased to curb the potential buyers.

Does it make sense? Can I answer your question?

Tell you a joke.

某人乘船去度假，在船上他看見船長正在苦惱，便問他：「你在苦惱什麼？」

船長答道：「船快沈了！」

  Why don't just let Greece to leave Euro Zone ? and go back to its own currency ??

 Let it go bankrupcy, at the same time, strong funding from join Europe committee to support all Euro Banks carrying lots of Greece bonds or debts. This should release the pressure of these banks go bankrupcy with Greece. Let kick it out of the Union.

 Let those Greece sucker citizens die in the hell, depreciated their own currency and suffer their own consequences !

 Euro guys are slow motion person, unlike US, they are lack of  determination and no sincerity, always throwing balls to each other, or just delaying to buy time.

 Sooner or later, they are all sink into the sea bottom together !

 This is a typical example of rats shit (produced by Greece)  in the congee.

博士此文開首十分幽默!!

且觀察南昌站上蓋中標情況如何. 就兩種方法而言, 招標在淡市中確實由政府取得主動. 正如上次北角油街地長實中標價為$8,300/呎, 如果剔除42%樓面面積為作價較低的酒店,剩餘的住宅面積不均面粉價超過$10,000 /呎, 而且中低層未來的海景會被遮蓋, 落成後要賣$16,000才有利潤空間. 所以中標價並不算太差....

不過我發覺一個現象, 無論用何種方法, 通常大熱的地產商....像長江奪油街,新地奪澳軍澳66A, 好像甚少會失手.......發展商遠比銀行佬齊心!!

貧富懸殊與地產商的關係,
就是地產商製造貧富懸殊,
造成有樓就是富豪,沒樓就是貧民,
沒有樓的市民,地產商就用其他途徑剝削

咪係囉! 咁簡單,係人都知!

咁点觧你沒樓甘做貧民? 学吓陸東呀!

If Greece is out of Euro Zone, its currency must be depreciated. It triggers the Big speculators to destroy the whole economy.  Then the consequence is the risk of collapse of european banking system because many banks buy their bonds. That's the reasons why S&P downgrades the French banks and also the country Italy. If it happens, the dominio effect will collapse the whole financial system in the world.

Who can pay this price? 

This is also the reason why gold detachs as the risky free safety heaven and strong US dollars cyclical bull market is under formation.

政府的房屋政策已轉招。放手豪宅市場不管，也管不了。就算升到天比高亦不關平民百姓事。湯博士轉戰豪宅，可謂洞察先機。佩服！

政府想管的是中小型的市場。誠哥見完李克強後做個純粹人情賣５千多一尺，只是賺少一點。無傷大雅，也算對得起這兩年平賣了樓的人士。信息很簡單：要買快手，下不為例！！！

大家心知肚明，政府根本無意做低樓市。須知要它跌易，要它升難。除非梁振英當上殺手，人為因素推低樓市。否則暫見不到大跌之危。

他指，本港通脹周期只是剛開始，因為人民幣升值令成本增加，相信未來五至十年續呈通脹壓力，衝擊社會及小市民生活。

点解通脹樓价向下?

大家請指教.

回18樓:

根據基本宏觀經濟理論, 初期通脹會迫使人買入資產對沖, 從而令資產價格上升; 但持續的通脹 (尤其是成本上升推動的)令央行有加息壓力去壓抑, 所以負債人利息支出會上升, 令樓價下跌, 當然高通脹也有你說的民生問題, 企業經營成本上升, 失業率也會隨之推高. 這是從政者那麼害怕通脹居高不下.

陶冬之所以估計5-10年通脹居高不下, 我想他認為中國經濟相對不太差, 香港也會維持一定增長, 但美國至少5年內未必能加息, 基於聯繫匯率, 香港沒有自行調息的空間, 所以通脹會一直高下去.

買樓對沖通脹我是基本上贊同的...但對沖不代表100%減少風險, 只是每人面對資產配置的方針都不一樣, 沒有最好與最壞的方法. 建議兩點銀行認為合理的樓市風險管理準則供參考:

1) 總借貨不超越100倍月薪 (有配偶的可計及配偶的人工);

2) 樓市資產剩值(市價 - 按揭餘額) 不超越總資產70%.

12 positive factors to support the HK property market.

1. Severe negative interest environment. Reason why property price drop 70% during 1998 to 2004 was because during this period, HK expereinced a 68 months non-stop deflation.  I don't think that we need to worry about deflation now.

2. Nominal interest rate is a lot lower than historical average. Back in 1997, banks charged P + 2%, and there was no cash rebate.

3. Unemployement rate drop to 3.2% as of today.  With major projects started up next few years, unemployment rate will drop even lower.

4. Office vacancy rate in Central, Wanchai, Causeway Bay drop to an extremely low level, as more and more multinational companies are moving to set up office in HK. You can't believe how crazy office rent are going up in Central.  With the US and European economy going to nowhere, even more multinational companies will come to HK to set up regional headquarters.

5. In terms of gold, price of Taikooshing is now less than 20% of its 1997 level.

6. In terms of RMB, Australia Dollar, and even Singapore Dollar, property price of HK is still far lagging behind 1997. 

7. GDP per capita of Shenzhen (population more than twice of HK's) will exceed HK (in US dollar terms) in 10 years time.  Also, with GDP grows at 8% to 9% a year, number of millionaires and billionaires of China will still be growing like hell.  Don't underestimate the purchasing power of Chinese investors. The demand to buy apartments in HK for weekend vacationing is just huge.

8. Rent has been growing up like crazy along with inflation.  If rent is skyrocketing, how can property price drops 50%?  If that happens, rental yield will be going up to the roof. 

9. For all those with lots of cash, buying property is safer than buying stock.  Many of my friends stay away from the property market and think that buying stock is safer.  The fact is that price of many stocks drops 20% to 50% this year. 

10.  Market capitalization of HK's property market is around $5 trillion, and according to HKMA, the current oustanding mortgage loan is only around $700 billion.  So the overall loan to value ratio is only 15%.  HK property market is extremely healthy, in terms of the leverage level.  So, our mortgage loan has not been securitized at all. So there will be no sub-prime crisis.  That why property price drops 70% during 1998 to 2004, there was no bank in HK goes into bankruptcy.  We are not Americans and Europeans.  Our saving rate is much much higher than them.  In fact, HK's saving amount is over $7 trillion, which is much much higher than the 1197 level.

11. Special Stamp Duty just discourage invesors to cut loss by selling their newly purchase "inventories".

12. The ever growing expectation that HK dollar will repeg or unpeg and appreciate by 20% to 30% may attractive foreign and Chinese invetors to buy HK dollar denominated assets, which include HK property.  It is the expectation that really counts.  I don't even care what the government will do.

如果港幣與美元脫钩，或者港幣升值，香港的樓價是升還是跌？請各位高人指教。謝謝！

通貨膨脹如此嚴重, 我看不出有任何理由房子的價值未來將下降. 長線投資買房子是肯定贏的. 看看報紙20年前的價格，和今天報紙的價格!  無需多說 : )

如果沒有內地暴發戶的加入

如果規定境外人士只能購一手樓

如果規定境外人士買樓的錢必須通過銀行匯來香港

如果把內地來港買天價豪宅的暴發戶的名單交給中國紀檢會查核是否洗黑錢

香港的豪宅將會如何發展