有人話，如果美國走上日本之路，超低息維持十年以上都有可能，博士點睇？

http://property.mpfinance.com/cfm/pd3.cfm?File=20110820/pda01/gaa1.txt

每一次金融危機，就係新一次嘅財富大轉移，而今次就係持有現金嘅人及租客，每個月都津貼緊業主供樓，而且發生左2年，每年達3厘以上，如果畀１樓講中，咁租客就大件事！

湯博士所言甚是, 近期租金持續看升, 而樓價普遍經已回軟3-5%, 租金回報率亦合理化..足以支持樓價止跌回升. 愚見認為要精確地計算租金回報, 不能只簡單地將1年租金除以樓價, 因為這個計法沒有考慮到利息因素.....租金回報的公式應為 = (淨租金 - 相關租期利息 - 物業稅) / 樓價首期 x 100%. 以一個3成首期的200萬單位, 出租7,000元為例, 差銄管理費1,000元, 月利息2,000元, 稅收5,000元, 租金回報 = [(7,000 - 1,000 - 2,000) x 12 - 5,000 ] / 600,000 = 7.2%.....比傳統計法要多出3%.

至於息口方面, 何以伯南克有足夠信心維持超低息多兩年？必有其它貨幣政策同步推行. 兩年之後美國依然面對今天的問題, 最多只會稍為改善而不能徹底根治...從10年國債和2年國債Yield spread僅2厘便知定息市場如何預測息口走向了.

若果面對如此極佳的環境仍要擔心樓市會大幅下挫，倒不如放棄物業投資，甚至連自住的物業也不要購買，無謂擔驚受怕，安安樂樂抱住一批現金了卻殘生算了。

说得非常好！！

If the rental return rate is 7.2% that can compare with the U.S. 30-year Treasury rate around 3.6% and the Hong Kong current inflation rate above 5%, and if an university couple have an average monthly income of HK$48000 and really want to buy a house of HK$2M ~HK$2.8M, then the house price to their earning ratio should be between 3.47 and 4.86. (i.e. well within the safety range of 3 ~ 5 and well within the common mortgage period of 15 years). Particularly, the Japan, U.S., U.K. and Europe have been printing a huge amount of electronic money around the world.

I do NOT understand why the university graduates go to apply for Public Houses or other people who are waiting for the assistanship from our government !

university graduates go to apply for Public Houses

這只是局部現象吧, 我不相信大部份大學畢業生都跑去申請公屋....不過有一點倒是真的, 如果某大學畢業生家境不錯, 父母可以協助其上車然後自己供; 和大學生自己儲首期上車卻有天淵之別. 因為供款壓力在低息環境下不算大, 不過拿出幾十萬甚至幾百萬首期卻需要長期的儲蓄

很認同博士之言論, 多謝分享。本人乃收租型長線投資者, SARS後膽粗粗購入第一間物者, 全因有自住需要, 既然價錢已達可負擔程度, 想多無謂。當年 peer group冇人會買樓, 還笑我供樓自困。

胡裡胡塗於「好位」入市, 令我鍾情投資物業, 但我從不短炒, 也不摸貨, 只作長線收租, 穩中求勝。我亦很同意博士所言, 現時樓市仍有下調壓力, 但相信不會大跌, 香港現時的情況特殊, 不能與以往跌市情況相比。此外, SSD在這個時候亦發揮了作用, 畢竟少了炒家於市況不穩時急走貨, 未有做成火上加油的局面.

本人不敢大膽叫人買樓, 但絕不鼓勵朋友輕易賣掉自住的物業, 畢竟, 租金是「純支出」。而我最大的理念是：長輩於二十多年前買入一港島藍籌屋苑單位，經歷過97、亞洲金融風波、科網股爆破、SARS、金融海嘯及美國被降級等等，現時，物業仍升值了十倍。土地是limited resources，只要不貪心，長線持有，有什麼好擔心?

1. The gross average rental return rate now is nowhere near to 7.2%, which, say, represents a monthly rent of $18K for a $3M flat (there are such flats, but few). Accounting for regular related taxes, maintenance fees, transition periods, commissions etc., the actual net return is considerably lower.

2. Long-term rental yields are NOT guaranteed, NOR the nominal property price level. The U.S. T-bill rates are underlied by FULL-TERM designated coupon payments nominally, and such bills are notionally protected for holding to maturity. With the HKD/USD peg assumed, T-bills are regarded as safe as HKD here. Note that if the U.S. T-rates increase later on (i.e. T-bill prices go down), the property market will as well face jeopardy.

3. Not the majority of individuals as univ. graduates enjoy monthly wages over $20K for their first few years in the job market, saved for certain prosective professions. Their current situations may bar them from owning flats safely - no one can guarantee stable and low mortgage rates, continuation of  the HKD/USD peg, pleasant economic environment, acceptable food price level etc. in the long run.

4. Japan and the U.S. themselves are lively examples about discouraging property price trends. Japan's property market remains sluggish for well over 10 years, while that in the U.S. has been exhibiting fall in price level since 2006 (or 5 years ago). Increased money supply and low interest rates haven't reverse situations under real economic growth threats (woeful stock markets reflect people's pessimistic anticipation about their economies' future, regardless of what's going to happen).

What I state above are not unknown to many univ. students. Their counterparts studying finance or economics have probably been sharing such info. with them under their recent 'public housing application mania', itself being moral or not, a glory or not, a social threat or not.

Behaviour change in Generation Z.

They grow with the internet and iTechnology. Their communication takes place in the facebook, iPhone and so forth. They develop their friendship in the online community. As a result, they are neither good listeners nor having interpersonal skills. They live in a small space and their living is in the visual world.

They used to be living in a small space lonely.  Is it a reason why our graduates like to apply for the publich housing?

這個當然, 我自己都有物業收租.所以十分明白你的說法....

從銀行風險管理角度看, 每一名按揭申請人都有入息證明及通過壓力測試才批出貸款, 而且按揭成數越來越低...換句話說, 這批買家都有若干持貨能力, 除非經濟突然急劇衰退, 否則即使加息, 供樓負擔也在可承受範圍.

樓價偏高是事實, 但感覺到港人在經歷了這麼多經濟週期, 金融危機之後, 對物業的"偏好性"提高了...例如以前你會相信投資股票/債券/外幣, 但長綫回報如何呢？倒不如學誠哥話齋, 今天買覺得貴, 5-10年後回望就覺得十分吸引了 

The teachers / professionals always say the Prices are subject to Demand and Supply. Since 1997 handover, Hong Kong has become a part of China. Actually, it belongs to part of Guangdong Province of our motherland. If there is no major mistake, 100 million population in GD, and 1350 million population in the whole country. Starting from 2003/2Q, we had an approval to allow individual visitors to Hong Kong  from the mainland, further from 2005 July, we knew the RMB that needed to flow, up to now, one HK dollar should be 0.8 RMB. In short, the local housing market is facing at least 100 million population of GD, not only for 7 million population of  Hong Kong !

As everyone knows there is no 100% guarantee in life. Having graduated from university, you don't have confidence in yourself, it could be a tough time to challenge with ove million of university graduates every year from mainland.  

Suppose I'm less than 2 m tall, I should not buy a house with a 3m ~ 4m high. In Summers and Winters, I can at least save a lot in the electric bills for cooling and heating respectively. For the other expenses on the property, we should also know about that before taking any action. Without driving a car, you can at least save HK$40 a day. Without eating out , you can save another HK$2000 a month. Without drinking a soft drink, you can still work hard and live as usual. Without the internet to the world, it doesn't mean you can not connect to the globe with 2 hours free in our public libraries. You really want to buy a house in your money, you must believe you can do that. It is just a matter of time !

湯博士今天的文章談論租金，昨天的文章論及大學生申請公屋，以經濟學角度看，兩者有必然的關係。房屋供應少，需求大，因此樓價和租金節節上升。目前大學生數量眾多，供過於求，與20年前的大學生比較，自然身價大跌，目前大學生畢業後的收入、升職機會肯定差過20年前，目前大學生的素質與20年前相比，自然差很多，這並非教育的問題，而是20年前二三十個年青人才出一個大學生，現在是兩三個年青人就有一個大學生，這並非香港的特例，國內也有類似的情況，如果進行橫向比較，香港的大學生不比內地的大學生差，當然不要跟內地的精英學生相比。

因此我們還能用社會未來精英的要求看待大學畢業生嗎？我們也要改變觀念！由此看來，大學生申請公屋就不足為奇，估計日後隨著大學生比例的進一步提高，大學生爭取其他社會福利的個案將越來越多！

事實上從個人角度看，大學生申請公屋有很多好處，申請失敗，沒有任何懲罰，如果申請成功，則有自己的一個居所，據聞申請到公屋後10年內沒有資產入息審查，那便可以節省近百萬的龐大租金支出，更容易儲錢，日後買樓或做其他投資都較易有本錢。10年後就算資產入息超過標準，也可以綠表購買居屋，還是有着數。時運不濟時至少還有一間公屋，可以有瓦遮頭。至於入住公屋後是否一定安於現狀，不思進取？那視乎個人！君不見以前的公屋住戶有很多已變成富翁，更何況大學畢業生呢？總之大學生申請公屋是進可攻、退可守，百利而無一害！

但是從公平分配社會資源的角度看，那就不得了！因此對申請公屋的大學生進行道德上的勸喻或譴責完全無效，只有在行政上，甚至立法改變目前的公屋申請資格，以杜絕漏洞，將有限的資源用在最需要的地方，還納稅人一個公道！

Without buying an expensive flat, one with mediocre income can dine well, drink with friends, own a car, travel in holidays, use quality goods, attend shows, spend more on health care, take fashions home and do much others. Many university students recognize this fact, and their way to preserve such desires is... make use of cheap public housing. They do not opt to trade-in a flat at the expense of so much others.

Population figures of any other regions have no necessary relationship with actual HK's housing demand. Recent transaction records suggest that rich mainlanders are not as active in HK's property market as some people believe. A few stories cannot portray the whole picture. In percentage, surge in property price level in HK far exceeds the appreciation pace of RMB. Flats here don't appear comparatively cheap to them.

小弟兄，你曾問起： 請問 QE , 港樓供應, 人民幣升值 是否是次樓市上升元兇?   

我的觀點與無奈兄一致。再補充一點：千萬不要認為樓宇的實質價值上升了！只是相對於不斷貶值的貨幣，樓價以貨幣計價上升了！世界經濟正處於30年代後最嚴重的衰退，與當時不同的只是各國政府被迫實行量化寬鬆政策，形成所謂”滯漲”，正統而言，“滯”就不能“漲”。因此目前樓價的上升完全是資金市，與香港上世紀七八九十年代經濟高速發展，帶動剛性需求，以致樓價節節上升不可同日而語！日後的樓市必定劇烈波動！我個人的意見是如果要自住，只要條件許可就買，但要保證有足夠首期！唯一的自住單位千萬不要出售，因為難以預期樓價的走勢。重新投資住宅，可免則免，手上有投資物業，伺機出售，轉投容易放售的項目，例如大宗商品等。

事實上，在滯漲期投資並非易事，希望湯博士與各位讀者給予寶貴意見！

這個論壇非常好，我已經習慣每天上來看看，很多時也忍不住發表意見，望能越來越好！

北角油街地皮低於預測價成交,是否決定樓市去向?是否意味著樓價有下調空間(逐漸沒有高地價)?

有一些公屋上的問題想請教,我在網上根據以下網址http://www.lzdig.com/sy/fdc/2011/08/0Q051332011.html,找到一些申請公屋的問題,1.申請破15萬大關,每年平均興建公屋15000,150000/15000=10年,2.配屋前有詳盡資產審查,3.申請條件更改要重新審查,4.漏報有關投資的資料如保險,會有機會取消資格,5.如要開公司就算合資格,要你証明都好難.

根據以上5點以一個大學生來說,會不會申請唔到,還會浪費很多機會呢,轉眼可能已經30歲了.

放棄物業投資  -> 抱住一批現金了卻殘生? 未必, 食得驚風散, 選擇多的是呢!

買外幣 ~ 如做人民幣定期, 上大陸一年3-4%, 或澳元的, 一年5%找得到 ~, 買各地股票 ~ 如高息本地藍籌, 抽熱爆新股: 我07年單靠循環再用十萬位注碼抽股, 無孖展下翻番, 今年似乎唔多呢D, 但他日一黎料會再入場  ~, 買債券 ~ 如iBond: 大佬, 通脹成7%啦  ~, 買農產品期貨 ~ 我買過小麥粟米大豆等自己食得多的  , 亦可當實貨入夠錢唔孖展 ~, 買各種基金 ~ 如主題是新興市場的 ~, 加注落MPF ~ 我09年恒指低位時全轉作恒指追蹤, 升咗轉番保本等下次  ~,  買實物金銀珠寶 ~ 之前金都升得好勁, 之後唔知 ~, 供儲蓄保, 供投資相連保, 供年金, 風險承受力極高的可炒外匯, 炒各式期貨期權, 有眼光的可做生意買賣 ~  不少年青人開小食店, 開樓上cafe, 攪online shop, 入紅酒儲 ~, 上進的進修增值 ~ 有朋友攞個學位後轉行收入倍升 ~, 另類的炒 iPhone iPad ~ 見人入100部都成幾十萬本 ~, 買農產 ~ 雜誌介紹可在香港找中介買外地果樹, 回報主要在收成 ~, 識野的收郵票鈔票車票玩具CD寫真甚至名畫書法古董, 實在講唔完

當然, 無投資一定贏! 做咩都必須三思, 自己負責!

To No. 23),

Yes, I think in the short term there'll be some correction.  Market speaks for itself, if I tell you the property prices can ONLY goes up, do you think there'll still be alot of discussions in this forum??

But the problem is:most of my relatives/friends/colleaques that are desperately looking forward to buy apartments, money is now being trapped in stocks/mutual funds.  Sometimes I ask them, so what kind of correction will make you take action to buy???  They answer:20%.  I say good, make yourself ready then.  By the time there's really a 20%, correction, they'll still hesitate 1)not enough downpayment 2)don't feel good to buy in downturn.

At the end, it's never a good time to buy for them!