低息寬鬆何時了, 往事知多少.

港樓今日又東風, 淡友不堪回首 "泡沫" 中.

豪宅摩廈今猶在, 或是業主改.

問君能有幾多愁, 無奈一江春水向東流.

雲兄真是才情橫溢！

教授：傳聞“鬱金香泡沫”爆破的導火線是：一名不知情的外國水手，順手偷了幾個名貴的鬱金香球莖，當作洋蔥炒餸食，結果被人拉上法庭。那名水手做夢也想不到那幾個“洋蔥”的價值，是他一輩子都賺不到的！他在法庭言行，令部分荷蘭人感到自己花費巨資買回來的“寶物”，原來在外國人心目中一文不值。於是就有部分人開始拋售，羊群效應，一發不可收拾，泡沫終於爆破！

97年樓市高峰期，我曾看中位於粉嶺的一個500餘呎單位，業主開價308萬，因數萬元之差談不攏。之後我去成都旅行，與當地人談起這事，他們對香港樓價之貴嗔目結舌，對我講在香港買一個廁所足以在成都買一套別墅。花同樣的價錢，享受到的生活質素，鄰居的社會層次絕然不同。回港後我打消買樓的念頭，想不到就此避過一劫。

當局者迷，當你不斷聽到外人說價格高得不合理，而且自問說得有根據的時候，不必刻意為自己的見解辯護。此時離泡沫爆破不遠矣！

The below is my views towards the low interest rate environment:

Undoubtedly, low interest rate is one of the key reasons for higher property prices nowadays.  But, you miss many other factors (e.g. low borrowing / gearing ratio, vacancy rates, difficuty to secure future land supply, demands from local HK and mainlanders, etc).  Hard to explain all factors here.  I will try to shed some lights on interest rates.

You said that lower interest rate boosts current property price and interest rate will rise eventually.  When will the interest rate be on an upward trend??  You did not mention and explain.  This really indicates that your understanding about interest rate is NOT DEEP enough.   The below is my viewpoints about interest rates:

<1>

US Federal Reserve said that low interest rate environment will be lasted till the end of 2014, at minimum.  It may likely extend beyond the end of 2014.  Many people know this.  So I won't elaborate further.

<2>

HK interest rate is linked to USA interest rate under linked exchange rate system.  As far as I am concerned, USA interest rate is closely linked to its property market and its job recovery.

<USA Property market>

Topics of USA property market are very wide.  I just want to discuss several key points.

Firstly, the S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index is on the long-terms downward trend. If you look to the index trend, it is quite hard to believe that USA property market will be recovered in the near future (within future 3 years).  For the index trend, please click to the below link at Wikipedia.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:
Case-Shiller_index.png

Secondly, I want to discuss the future supply of USA property market.  USA home supply comes from 2 sources, (1) existing new home inventory and (2) shallow inventory arising from foreclosure (i.e. 銀主盤).  According to Chart 1, the existing home inventory is just 10 months of the overall demands.  This is very normal.  However, the shallow home inventory arising from foreclosure is almost 60 months of the entire demands.  If the over-supply inventory is not fully absorbed, the property price is hard to go upwards.

Chart 1

<USA Job Recovery>

Since the 2008 Financial Tsunami, USA lost approximately 13 - 14 million job positions.  Chart 2 shows the trend of USA job post losses since 2008. 

Chart 2

Deep-blue coloured line is the actual accumulated job loss since 2008 Financial Tsunami.  Red-coloured, green-coloured and grey-coloured lines project the time needed to fully recover USA’s job losses, with different recovery speed.

Red Line

In 2000’s, the maximum monthly job creation is 472,000 jobs.  With this assumed speed in mind, USA still needs 2 years to fully recover its job loss in 2008 financial tsunami.  That is, USA’s job loss will be fully recovered in 2014.

Green Line

In 1990’s, the average job creation is the top in 1994 (i.e. 321,000 / month).  With this speed in mind, job losses will be fully recovered in 2016 – 2017.

Grey Line

In 2000’s, the best year of job creation is in 2005 (i.e. 208,000 / month).  With this speed in mind, USA job market will be fully recovered in 2024.

However, I have a question.  Do you believe that USA job market can grow in the above speeds??

<Conclusion>

If you trust the above research on USA property and job markets, do you still believe that USA interest rate will hike in the near future??? 

低息寬鬆何時了, 往事知多少.

港樓今日又東風, 淡友不堪回首 "泡沫" 中.

豪宅摩廈今猶在, 或是業主改.

問君能有幾多愁, 無奈一間住屋向誰求.

Thank you, Peter Paker. You have provided very useful information to me.

Re Peter:

If things are this simple then there won’t be 2 sided views. You are looking at US market which is right but not enough. China are at least as important as The US in HK economy. But it’s becoming more and more obvious that the economy is slowing down and the inflation rate is low.

I am doing business (both export and local F&B), and the global economy does have impact on business, not only export, but also domestic spending. If you speak with business owners in various industries, you will find that most of them are having a hard year this year. This is the reality, although this is not something you like to know.

So, if the economy is affecting the business, will it affect the working class and ultimately affect the property market? It is of course depending on how badly the economy hit us. But from my point of view, the economy isn’t looking good for years to come so it will affect property market.

I don’t agree that “little bubble” means that the property will continue to go up, don’t let the writers direct your attention and your analysis. How many times in history the property market went down without a bubble? Countless.  

14/F is a clever man! Agree with his view.

Dear Yellow Man,

I just want to shed some light on interest rates and its future trend.  As you said, the real economy is slowing down in China.  That means the global is very hard to raise interest rate.  In the near and medium futre, there is no room for interest rate increment

亮劍兄：

所述計算方法甚妙！惟現實世界並非機械，其中一個因素爆破足以短期內令全局失去平衡，做好風險管理最重要。

上善若水----資產泡沫爆破前有乜嘢會發生，係我拋磚引玉，俾大家作一個參考而矣，而每一個人對評分更可能相差好遠！

個人意見，樓市中短期再上到 CCL 120 以上機會好大，可能升到 去130 都唔奇，然後回頭趺翻去 100 點，再來玩過下一輪，歡迎大家指教及討論！

很羨慕陳教授---這裏仍未被高登仔和廢青們佔領，日日夜夜以打倒某某不停洗版，恭喜！

平時很少在這裏留言，畢竟陳教授的話題很闊，與樓市不大相干，才疏學淺，不知如何搭咀。

眾師兄們的高見十分精彩，多謝，請繼續努力！

回應 太自由就有容易被人冒認的問題，廢青們，除了冒認和惡搞別人名字，能否想出多點具建設性的回應？

也罷，他們有句座右銘叫「認真就輸了」，教他們盞晒氣。

各位看官，誰是真貨，誰是假貨，應該很易分得清。

周國賢︰買樓是最好儲錢方法 文章日期：2012年8月16日

 
買樓除了可以自住，免卻交租支出，不少人都希望隨樓市攀升，藉「磚頭」致富。其實，買樓另一重要功能是強迫自己儲蓄，因為要每月供款，久而久之，不論樓價上升與否，身家也比無殼蝸牛多。

新鴻基地產（0016）代理執行董事周國賢指出：「買樓永遠是最好的儲錢方法，但千萬不要抱投機心態，想一買（樓）就發達，只會適得其反。年輕人只要有決心儲蓄自己第一筆首期，上車並不難，冇人叫你一開始就買一個1000方呎豪宅單位。」

周國賢又認為，年輕人開始踏進社會工作，就應該盡快為自己今後的人生作出部署，「愈快為自己籌謀、就愈快看得見成果，我都經常向自己一對孖女這樣講……年輕人要上車，只要有決心和努力儲錢做首期，上車其實不難。（我）自己年輕時家庭環境不算富裕，出來社會工作後，已開始為自己籌謀，並深信買樓一定冇錯，於是在1984年8月以30多萬元，買了康怡花園最細的一款單位。」

首次上車的人士，應該如何揀選物業？周認為，最重要是量力而為，其次是不論是揀市區或新界樓、居屋抑或私人樓盤的細單位，首要是看相關物業是否容易放租，位處鐵路沿線、坐享集體運輸系統效益的大型屋苑單位，就可以看高一線。

「年輕人置業後，然後再將手頭單位放租，在享受一定租金回報之餘，亦是最穩健妥當的儲存財富途徑，他日租約期滿後，既可將單位收回自用，又或者可以搭乘樓價上升的『順風車』，將單位放售再換上面積大一點的單位，提升自己的生活質素。」

周國賢又指出：「樓價走勢永遠是跟總體經濟表現走的，真正影響社會民生的是整體經濟，而非單純是樓價。」周認為：「環顧經濟，可說是禍福因素互相依存，歐美經濟前景未明，令全球經濟充滿不穩定因素，正因為環球經濟前景仍存懸念，令市場上好多資金都撤離股票及金融市場，轉而投入『實物』市場，有利房地產。」

「以現時歐美的客觀環境來講，仍舊欠缺加息條件，香港息口在可見的將來，依然會處偏低狀態，對樓市來講屬利好因素。」

撰文：陸振球 （明報地產版主管)

回8楼Peter Paker先生：谢谢先生用Case-Shiller美国房地产指数展现美国房地产的走势，还有美国失业率的可能趋势，图文并茂。加上美国是负债国的因素，美联储没有任何动力在最近将来加息。由于香港的联系汇率制度，香港需要面对高通胀和低利率的现实。但香港经济包括地产价格一方面受美联储的货币政策左右，也越来越受到内地经济的影响。

“唱空”中国经济的论调一直焦头烂额，说穿了也简单，一方面中国经济数据难以常态理解，更重要的是中国由国家严厉控制金融和主流产业，来龙去脉只有在中央政府再也顶不住的情况才出现火山爆发，但已经没有拯救的可能性。我年初博客“中国经济硬着陆并非空穴来风”尝试用简单的语句谈了一些客观的论点，现在看来无需解释也明晰。到底，美联储不可能把利息调低到负数。故，就是说中国和香港的房地产没有调控，价格上升的话也只不过是强弩之末，或是最后的烟花。更有可能的是连许多经济学家迷信的中国经济可能出现巨变，超乎中央政府所能够控制。中国正经历一次巨大的信贷扩张周期，广义货币已经差不多GDP的两倍，超乎想像，难以为继。地方政府的债务，极有可能是所公布的十一万亿的许多倍。 如果真正如此，中国的负债甚至将接近意大利，不单止四万亿刺激地方版难以融资而泡汤，中国碰到的经济困难可能比西班牙还艰巨，连带香港经济动荡。

教授：

剛拜讀了“中国经济硬着陆并非空穴来风”一文。

拉動中國經濟發展的三大馬車頭是：出口、投資、消費。

就出口而言，歐美經濟衰退以及隨之而來的保護主義，將令出口大環境持續惡化。

消費佔GDP比重嚴重偏低，其原因有：崇尚節約的民族性、社會福利保障體系尚未完善、財富分配嚴重不均等。以上因素均牽涉到文化、政治層面，雖則中央政府視增加內需為長遠國策，不過大家都清楚其改善需時。

因此投資在今後相當長的時間內，依然是經濟發展的重點，與土地開發有關的投資必然是其中主角，因此房地產絕對不允許崩盤！中央三申五令打壓房價，絕非要刺破泡沫以遷就部份人買房，而是要令房價在政府可控的範圍內安全行走，以免房價上升過快而不破自爆，壞了中央的大計。事實上，土地開發的投資在中國依然大有潛力，剛性需求大量存在，很多地區的土地基建還需加快改善。

家家有本難念的經，相對於歐洲，中國的發展勢頭還算好。就算在金磚四國中，中國的情況還是不錯的。

回39楼上善若水先生：“…房地产绝对不容许崩盘”是一厢情愿。就是在国家控制的经济体，终于也得向市场低头，顽强逆流代价将大的难以估计。难道美联储不想阻止美国房地产的崩盘？非也。日本西班牙爱尔兰也是一样。中国政府固然有更多的政策活动空间，但此红利已差不多浪费殆尽。今天需要房地产行政调控，是多年来纵容信贷发放和及时改革税收的失误。通货膨胀失控也是一个道理， 种瓜得瓜的结果。今天，中央政府在经济下滑面前迟疑不决， 正是因为手头调动的工具已是捉襟见肘，左右为难。

陳教授：

一時解決不了的問題，可以爭取更多的時間去解決。時間是一位偉大的魔法師，可以解決不可能的難題，也可以將問題變得不是問題，具有一定人生經驗的人恐怕都難以否認，放到國家層面依然有效。

中央這幾年對房地產的調控，表面看來缺乏成效，實際是在極力延長泡沫爆破的時間，利用這段時間進行產業升級，完善社會保障體系等，這方面的進步是普通老百姓能感受到的。

美國的量化寬鬆，看起來是飲鴆止渴，但其實也在爭取時間，作必要的改善。

改革遇到強大的阻力，先避開它，而不是硬碰，先保障生存。戈爾巴喬夫對前蘇聯的改革就是犯了此禁。

Good work Parker!!!!!!

We need more people like you to re-fresh our minds. Yelling a view point without providing some sort of (hopefully new) argument(s) is a waste of our time.

Let me give everyone a picture of what are the HKD long term interest rate so you can have a feel on what is to expect:

HKMA bonds 5Y YTM: 0.33% / HKMA bonds 10Y YTM: 0.79% / HKMA bonds 15Y YTM 0.94%. Feel free to check HKMA web site for more information. People are buying German Government bonds (say 2Y) at zero percent......

As for the HKD interest rate swap market (effectly you borrow say 5y and lend 3m money to hedge your HKD interest rate risk:) 5y = 0.85% quarterly money; 10Y = 1.58%. Or Market is saying: 5Years HKD interest rate after 5 years is at 2.3%-2.4% level.

I personally don't believe we are in a property bubble (yet) simply because when so many people pointing fingers and screaming that its a bubble, nothing is going to happen. Until these guys are changing their minds and jump into the market, then.....

As said previously, unless you have unusual personalities / characters, you will end up buying high; selling low than anything else. BTW my track reconds telling me that I am good at picking bottom but no good in picking the top, so read with care.

To: PN (44/F),

Over the past few years, I read a lot of economic / financial books, analyst reports, govt statistics, commentary, editorial and magazines in order to know more about the HK property market.  I also attended a lot of property seminar.  Some of these viewpoints, seminars and data are useful.  I am doing a job to summarize viewpoints of different smart people in my articles.

I am quite interested in your quotations of HKMA bond yields.  Could you please give me the hyperlinks of these quotations??  These could be relevant to my work.

Below is my 1st article I wrote recently.  If you have any comments, please leave me a message.  Thanks!!  http://blog.yahoo.com/_RK223QDG24GUCUOK3ALBDFSXPA/articles/693693/index

Parker,

I actually get the yield from Bloomberg. But trust the below links help.

https://www.cmu.org.hk/cmupbb_ws/eng/page/wmp0100/wmp010001.aspx?caller=qsearch&hddl_remainyr=--&hddl_matyr=&hddl_issr=AAAA&hddl_curr=HKD

http://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/key-information/press-releases/2012/

Also you may find this link very interesting in term of how verious factors come into play.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?ref=realestate

45. Peter Parker-----

恭喜您做左博客，極之同意您首篇文章，兄台有做功課，圖文並茂，資料詳盡，期望第二篇文嘅出現！

我與你嘅觀點一脈相傳，因為除左你朋友之外，我亦有睇兄台所參考嘅評論員文章，但有一點想提提你，兄台所講的幾位人兄，都係地產大好友，所謂兼聽則明，希望你有時間的話，都要睇睇知名淡友點寫，咁就可以避咁啲風險！

第四篇文章，寫寫政府點幫倒忙又點睇：-

實施 SSD ---收緊盤源。

豪宅收緊按揭---等中產換唔倒樓。

限尺地---中大型單位供應更緊張。

按揭保險由九成半減到九成---上車客更難上車。

白表免補地價買居屋---引發小型單位搶購風！

唔好俾我批死，下一波係收緊第二套房按揭絛件，但咁攪法，現在揸住一層樓以上嘅業主，更加唔使旨意拒哋會放盤出售任何物業，因為拒哋出左貨會買唔翻！

TO PN--

Also you may find this link very interesting in term of how verious factors come into play.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?ref=realestate

您提供呢條 Link 正到無朋友，有無辦法將數据轉一轉，以符合港情？

Peter Parker 對不起，係第五篇！

仲有政府收緊預售樓花限制---發展商推唔倒新盤出來救火！

限制發水---同一個地盤少建樓宇面積。

市區地建資助房屋---市區私樓供應更加少。

To: Peter

上星期有看你回應關於國內HK的SME難以生存問題, 以下有一例子, 真的感到莫名其妙:

2010年由於仍是來料加工合同, HK上機器只需繳付買價的8%進口關稅 (2010年前是免關稅及VAT). OK 已付

2011年來料加工不再合同不再延續. 強制轉為三資企業.機器轉名前必須完稅, 即購入價的17%VAT,  OK已付.

2012年海關話在2010年計錯數, 今年要補交稅8%內的17%. 問佢哪一條項目規定要交此稅, 佢又答唔出, 總之佢就開張VAT發票要你交稅, 否則貨物不能出口. 無辦法之下繳交了.

請問你知原因嗎?

Dear Chan, Sorry for hijacking your blog for awhile.

Dear Parker, I have read your blog. Well done. But as for section 2 <借貸情況> the (loans / depos) figures don't seem correct to me. I tried to compare total (LCY + FCY) deposits for Banks in HK vs total o/s mortgages from 4/1997. Noted that the ratio was actually 13.7% in 4/97 and was up to 15.7% by end of  97. Peak was 16.3% in 2002. Now the ratio stands at 10.7%.

My points are:
- Banks in HK need to comply with 25% liquidity ratio, so there is NO WAY that Banks extending so much loans vs their deposits
- The o/s mortgage / total deposit ratio sound like a very valid point but if I am looking at history since 1997, it seem not telling us anything about whether a bubble is in the making (4/1997 = 13.7% actually a time to sell, while in 7/2002 it was 16.3% and actually it should be a time to buy)

Dear 亮劍, I can do a raw version in excel but nowhere to pose it. Anyway I think its a good tool to get a feel on how the different driver can affect the final outcome financially. But beware that our ability to predict the future is rather weak.

To: 亮劍兄,

我明白您的意思 , 我需 balance 樓市正、反兩面的因素 , 但 review 的時候發現 , 反方大多口 up up  , 完全冇好 objective、客觀、實在的數據支持自己 points , 因而我好難引用其反方觀點 o 例如 , 佢地話 interest rates 会好快升 , 但無講點解???  佢地話供楼好辛苦 , 但人口普查、有錢打工仔上升幅度大話俾我知唔係咁 o所以 , 如反方有好 SOLID data及观点 , 我会 study and quote , 但目前真係揾唔到…

如您發現我的文章与其他人 (包括Dr. Tong 、陸振球及施生) 有点不同 , 我引用大量數据支援自己的观点 , 我有 quote 我引用资料的源頭 (大多係 govt statistics) …..

To PN:

我 tie唔到您D数字 , 但我指係香港银行体有內的所有存款及贷款 (mortgage只係其中1种贷款) , 厘個真係唔太明 , 當年林奮强及王震宇 seminar quote 得出來应该有其道理 o 会唔会 secured loans 唔会 subject to tighter loan / deposit requirements (say 25%) ??  我覺得 25% D有問題 , 我 有 quote HKMA 的銀行業概況 – 6/2012 , 裹面講 retail banks 的贷存比率 54 – 56% , HKMA 应该唔會錯

HK$ Secured loan interest rate 係 2-3厘 , 但 personal 、credit card loans 冇坻押收 8 - 10 -20 - 30厘 , risks are different , maybe, different loans natures will be subject to different lending requirements…..  but I don’t know how to calculate this figure, as I am not a banking compliance guy….

To Sun Moon:

好似2009年起 (forget which year, 08, 09??) , VAT 由生产型改为消费型 , 買 fixed asset的VAT可以抵扣销項税 , 因此海关当进口 machinery就划一收进口 VAT (無论来料加工、进料加工) , 但进口 machinery 的關稅就視乎您公司的行业 (e.g. 鼓励类、限制类 , pls check 海关有本进口名冊) , 但您 say “要補交稅8%內的17%” , 我就觉得怪怪地 , 但我只是通才 , 唔係專才 , 最好 check with prc tax experts

To: Peter

有否睇過我 14 樓所言，「所有數據都好好！！！！(表面上睇)----」，先始聲明我係好友底，預計樓價打後一兩年都會升！

I try to put the factors in a very brief model.

1. Dr Chan's (conditional) viewpoint is on supply side:

"拋去其他因素，光從貨幣供應量和利率的角度來分析的話，香港的房地產依然沒有“泡沫”。 "

Remember mv = pq

Today, q is relatively inelastic (construction period taking at least 3 years)

m is of high increment due to QEs

v accelerates too due to deliberate near-zero interest rate (surely many factors count including willingness to borrow and invest due to economic condition).

2. Considering PETER PAKER's viewpoint which is on demand side:

Real user demand (confidence in future income, PPP, change of demography)

Investor demand (yield comparsion with investment options of similar risk, again interest rate involved.) By the way, brilliant use of HKMA and other investors' data as supporting arguments

3. Aggregated supply Vs Aggregated demand

Mr 亮劍 (14/F) produces a very lively qualitative checklist.

Quanlitatively, it's a very hard work and I cannot handle.

4. Some thoughts on interest rate

Interest rate is long served as a powerful tool of public finance. It's also an intricate tool involving government objective, money flow in banking system, fluctuations in money market, interaction with Tresaury market etc. Any trivial changes within those market trigger reaction in stock and property even individual spending confidence. That is why it's hard to predict. Too much unstable observations.

I try to put the factors in a very brief model.

1. Dr Chan's (conditional) viewpoint is on supply side:

"拋去其他因素，光從貨幣供應量和利率的角度來分析的話，香港的房地產依然沒有“泡沫”。 "

Remember mv = pq

Today, q is relatively inelastic (construction period taking at least 3 years)

m is of high increment due to QEs

v accelerates too due to deliberate near-zero interest rate (surely many factors count including willingness to borrow and invest due to economic condition).

2. Considering PETER PAKER's viewpoint which is on demand side:

Real user demand (confidence in future income, PPP, change of demography)

Investor demand (yield comparsion with investment options of similar risk, again interest rate involved.) By the way, brilliant use of HKMA and other investors' data as supporting arguments

3. Aggregated supply Vs Aggregated demand

Mr 亮劍 (14/F) produces a very lively qualitative checklist.

Quanlitatively, it's a very hard work and I cannot handle.

4. Some thoughts on interest rate

Interest rate is long served as a powerful tool of public finance. It's also an intricate tool involving government objective, money flow in banking system, fluctuations in money market, interaction with Tresaury market etc. Any trivial changes within those market trigger reaction in stock and property even individual spending confidence. That is why it's hard to predict. Too much unstable observations.