In fact, HK does not have enough land supply to meet the demands for private residential, public estate, hotels and social welfare, commercial, etc.  That's why HK Gov't does not have guts to sell those land in 勾地表. 

The only thing CY should do is to create lands.  However, it won't be easy becasue of so-many stakeholders, including 原居民, 低产量 / 值的非原居民農夫, 垃圾会议員 (尤其飯民), 环保觸觉, 反中共、反大陸份子, 地产商, etc.  Please think how to fulfill all of their needs, especially when some of them are not willing to give away their "so-called" core principles.  It is impossible for them to talk and compromise.  The end result is to keep everything remained unchanged.

The only thing I foresee is expensive property / rental prices in the near / medium future.  There is no hope to turn around the hosuing problems.  Conflicts among low, middle and upper class will be intensified.  Landlords and property owners are the winners in the medium future. 

However, every HK people will become losers at tge end.  After so many enless disputes and arguments, HK will lose many development opportunities and will be of very low competitiveness in comparison with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Singapore.  HKroperty price will drop eventually, not becasue of unaffordably high property prices, but becasue HK loses its competitiveness to survive.  Although property prices will drop a lot at that moment, low-class people and those who shout loudly are still unable to have their dream houses on the ground that they lose their jobs earlier.

Although I don't want to see the above happening, it appears to me that HK will certainly and unavoidably follow the recession path of Tokyo / Japan merely due to endless political and meaningless disputes.  The only uncertainty is the timing.  As for an upper middle-class and a landlord with several properties, I can do nothing to change the currently bad social environment except for earning more and accumulating more wealth at the present moment for my future.  I strongly believe that in case of the recession, I am not the ones who "die" first becasue I have $$$, enabling me to withstand in tough environment for a while.   Those who "die" first is 夾心階层 and low-class people. 

Maybe, in case where HK follows the recession path of Japan in remote future, I think I may accumulate sufficient wealths and retire at that moment.  I don't really need to care my career paths and future.  I really hope you guys, especially the ones who shout loudly now, can have a brightening and graceful future.  I really hope you guys need not worry about your survival / your jobs / your future.

請教湯博士:

""在拍賣土地的條款加上免收BSD""

請問博士是否指強拍, 如答案係"是", 會否變相另收購者較想用強拍代替與小數業主協商收購價?

Very good!! Thank you!

中國交通銀行董事長胡懷邦指出，近期香港調控樓市政策的效果非常明顯，政策出台後香港樓價下跌20-30%，中國可以借鑒香港經驗，把房地產調控的行政手段適時轉化為市場手段。

建築成本謊言：3000元一呎。

建築成本真相 ：(2012年) 

普通住宅1000-1200一呎 ，

豪宅1500-2000一呎

To No 17)  I have a relative from mainland that's really doing damn good these 10 years because of the construction industry.  He's a sub-contractor & has 2-300 people working for him. According to him, land price 3-4K(public & open), cost for construction 3-4K(building materials, labour cost & don't forget these days, construction workers are paid on average 20-30K per month, more than what you have invested in your son/daughter that has the U-grad. qualification!  You think everyone that has worked 10 yrs after post-grad. can make that money???  You dream on, another issue buyer beware why crazy parents invest so much on their kids on tuitions without thinking if they could truly afford & what they should really teach their kid???)

Last but not least, the developers they also make another 1.5K-2K per sq. ft, so adding up you can tell why even in N.T. the new apartments cannot cost under 8K per sq ft or even close to 10K.......Unless the prices for all these capital costs would reduce, more land supply......New apartments becomes cheaper.  And properties in the second hand market will have to drop also.....But you think it's really that easy to have A +B happening at the same time?

１７哥，電視訪問條廢柴計間屋單一建築費＄１２００，原則上你只擁有你入屋後既業權，至於你如何返回你有比錢＄１２００蚊單位內，即行人路，大堂，電梯，公共走廊，花園，水電系統建設，公家秏能設施，。。。等等，你全部不參與分擔，當然亦無權使用，咁你就要學識空間轉移先返到入屋喇，仲有自己擔水同擔屎啦。因為公家管道你無份！

樓上１７，睇電視都要吓用自己個腦，你要知道現代傳媒好喜歡講啲唔講啲，所為傳媒公義，早已消失無踪，所謂記者喎，打工望出位加薪啫，信佢你就傻得很喇！

To: 10/F

Let's see what will happen to property and rental prices after 2 years.....

I am not sure whether my views are better than Mr. Leung Kam Chun or not.

I work very hard to gather data and figures.  I don't know how much efforts are inputted to gather figures by Mr. Leung, before making his comments.  So I cannot conclude if my views are better or not!! 

I am striving to gather many different sources of data and figures to formulate my views.  I will try to find other counter-arguements against my preliminary views.  If there are no valid counter arguements, I will trust data and figures.  This is my principle I am committed to.

The market will punish the ones who make wrong predictions.  If I predict wrongly, let the market punish me.  However, I am well "prepared" to be punished.  How about you??  Do you prepare well for your wrong prediction??

金管局總裁陳德霖表示，香港最大風險仍是樓市過熱，但現時按揭比率平均五成多，意味首期平均四成幾，即使樓價跌四成，亦未算負資產，情況較七成按揭好，他認為現時市場的抗震能力相對強。

梁錦松說，現在香港樓價貴，歐美卻不乏投資房地產的機會，比方說，可考慮購入有關地區一些樓價低於重建成本的物業，然後翻新出租或重售，隨時可獲得高回報。

前財爺審視環球回報項目之眼光，在這裡有識之士無人會質疑了，何謂值博率? 他正正清楚而簡單地全面舉証，高人也!

而誤信樓市只會持續向上(較低層次分析)、並未相信接近高位的周期頂之人，逆水行舟，其勇可嘉，倘若低息環境仍維持三年，假設供樓年期最長30年，即有27年要捱貴息，就如你所言，市場將會老老實實給你答案!!

To: 29 - 30/F

If you notify what I wrote in this forum before, you can find out a lot of data and figures I gathered.  It covers the forecast of US interest trends, HK vacancy rates, debt levels of HK property and HK overall economy, income levels of "real" buyers, etc. 

From my point of view, US, Japan and Europe properties are not worth to invest at this moment.  This is becasue the overall debt levels of their govt and citizens are still very high.  If they cannot repay and settle all of their debts, they will not have extra money to spend.  there are no hope for their property mkt to get recovered.  HK experienced this before.  Don't argue with me.

When did HK property recovered since 97 bubble burst??  Yes, 2003, everyone knows.  But I can tell you one more thing.  2003 is the key milestone that all loans  = all deposits in the HK banking systems.   This means HK ppl can better clear up parts of their heavy debts.  From 2003 onwards, HK ppl can have net deposits in their banking systems.  In 12/2010, HK has HK$35,000 億 net deposits in our banking systems.  HK$35,000 is almost 2-year multiple of HK GDP for 2010.  This illustrates not only how wealthy is HK economy, but also how big is the gap between the rich and the poverty.

Per HKMA, loan / deposit ratio of all HK retail banks as at 6/2012 is 56%, but this ratio in 1997 is 160%.  Pls check the below hyperlinks below:

http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/chi/publications-and-research/quarterly-bulletin/qb201206/ra2.pdf

If there are no excessive borrowings, how can you still believe in "bubble" in HK??  I strongly recommend you reading more books and understanding more about bubble.  Apart from the gearing (i.e. borrowing) ratio, you need to focus on vacancy rates especially when analyzing vacancy rates.  USA and Spain property bubble bursts are accompanied by unreasonably high vacancy rates.  If you want to know how vacancy rates determine existence of bubble, please read more books.

I won't tell you everything I know.  Please make some effort to search for.  If you want to know, you can check what I wrote in this forum.

As I said repeatedly, I don't mind the mkt to punish me if I make wrong predictions.  I am well prepared.  However, if you predict wrongly, are you well prepared if the property and rental prices continue to grow up in the coming future???

To: Mr Anonymous (29/F, 30/F) and Mr Paker

Both of you are talking the facts of pro and con. I think both of you may be correct coz there are time gaps. It is the most difficult issue. Everyone is making a guess here.

By the way, I would be very happy if Mr Anonymous'd find a name yourself and be more confident to express your own views not only just quoting others' sayings.

Peter Paker,

As always, I appreciate your analysis and share with you.  I am sure a lot of readers support you.