等左10幾年，年底又係時候出手~

同意 1 樓 [ 泡沫待爆]

地產-----------價高者失(敗)o

樓價根本沒得跌。免地價的綠表居屋都要4000元一尺。若果李+x所說的建築費都要3000元一尺正確的話，那麼私樓的價錢可能仍低水。

強烈要求陳某波下台。

有絕大部份有能力有首期而未上車的人:
價平時嫌市道差
價高時嫌泡沫
私樓嫌唔實用
居屋嫌冇會所
找來一網友貼文正說出廢柴的心態

舊樓嫌殘
新樓嫌貴
市區樓嫌環境差
新界樓嫌遠
公屋嫌on9

但好奇怪~ 用差不多月供既價錢(甚至貴過)去租又ok喎 突然間又變到冇晒要求個喎其實點解呢?
點解唔用租樓既心態去買呢? 還是真係要冇要求先有資格做業主 ???

To: 1/F

Undoubtedly, low interest rate is one of the key reasons for higher property prices nowadays.  But, you miss many other factors (e.g. low borrowing / gearing ratio, vacancy rates, difficuty to secure future land supply, demands from local HK and mainlanders, etc).  Hard to explain all factors here.  I will try to shed some lights on interest rates.

You said that lower interest rate boosts current property price and interest rate will rise eventually.  When will the interest rate be on an upward trend??  You did not mention and explain.  This really indicates that your understanding about interest rate is NOT DEEP enough.   The below is my viewpoints about interest rates:

<1>

US Federal Reserve said that low interest rate environment will be lasted till the end of 2014, at minimum.  It may likely extend beyond the end of 2014.  Many people know this.  So I won't elaborate further.

<2>

HK interest rate is linked to USA interest rate under linked exchange rate system.  As far as I am concerned, USA interest rate is closely linked to its property market and its job recovery.

<USA Property market>

Topics of USA property market are very wide.  I just want to discuss several key points.

Firstly, the S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index is on the long-terms downward trend. If you look to the index trend, it is quite hard to believe that USA property market will be recovered in the near future (within future 3 years).  For the index trend, please click to the below link at Wikipedia.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:
Case-Shiller_index.png

Secondly, I want to discuss the future supply of USA property market.  USA home supply comes from 2 sources, (1) existing new home inventory and (2) shallow inventory arising from foreclosure (i.e. 銀主盤).  According to Chart 1, the existing home inventory is just 10 months of the overall demands.  This is very normal.  However, the shallow home inventory arising from foreclosure is almost 60 months of the entire demands.  If the over-supply inventory is not fully absorbed, the property price is hard to go upwards.

Chart 1

<USA Job Recovery>

Since the 2008 Financial Tsunami, USA lost approximately 13 - 14 million job positions.  Chart 2 shows the trend of USA job post losses since 2008. 

Chart 2

Deep-blue coloured line is the actual accumulated job loss since 2008 Financial Tsunami.  Red-coloured, green-coloured and grey-coloured lines project the time needed to fully recover USA’s job losses, with different recovery speed.

Red Line

In 2000’s, the maximum monthly job creation is 472,000 jobs.  With this assumed speed in mind, USA still needs 2 years to fully recover its job loss in 2008 financial tsunami.  That is, USA’s job loss will be fully recovered in 2014.

Green Line

In 1990’s, the average job creation is the top in 1994 (i.e. 321,000 / month).  With this speed in mind, job losses will be fully recovered in 2016 – 2017.

Grey Line

In 2000’s, the best year of job creation is in 2005 (i.e. 208,000 / month).  With this speed in mind, USA job market will be fully recovered in 2024.

However, I have a question.  Do you believe that USA job market can grow in the above speeds??

<Conclusion>

If you trust the above research on USA property and job markets, do you still believe that USA interest rate will hike in the near future???  When discussing about interest rate, please add more substance.  Don’t just say that interest rate will rise eventually (鬼唔知阿媽係女人)

Don't know how to insert diagrams to the discussion areas

Want to share the Charts 1 and 2.  Don't know how to insert.  Suen la....

Support Peter Paker

We need backup our statement with data and research work.  Further, the timing of these statements differentiates how true or how wrong they are.  This is purely argument on facts / thinking and etc.  No "謾罵，侮辱，攻擊" is involved. 

湯生說: [C.Y.推出幾項利民政策，其他如生果金等不必累述]

少說謊身體好

(2012年08月06日)

「大話冚大話」令人容易緊張。外國有研究指出，講大話會影響身體健康，故建議公眾在均衡飲食、定期做運動之餘，亦應少說謊言。

美國聖母院大學(University of Notre Dame)心理學教授Anita Kelly，邀請了110名人士參與一項為期十星期的研究。他們被分成兩組，一組是誠實組，另一組是對照組；兩組研究對象須每周接受身體狀況進行評估兩組人的身體狀況。結果發現，誠實組在生理和心理健康均有改善，如減少頭痛、喉嚨痛等，亦減少低落情緒。少說謊者更認為自己人際關係有改善。

Anita Kelly表示，小小的謊言同樣可傷害身心，故建議大家少說謊，例如有參加研究的人不再為遲到和做不完的工作找藉口。
 

大家有無留意到：博士表面上雖然日日擦CY鞋，經常擦到語無倫次，稍有智慧的人一看就覺錯漏百出！難道聰明如湯博士會不自知？

博士可能正在忍辱負重、曲線救港，故意將CY那些愚不可及、不得人心的所作所為，以明撐暗踩的語句道出，文中充分暴露出CY的破綻，好激起大家群起攻之！最終將這只虛偽、狡猾、陰險毒辣、不學無術、到處樹敵的豺狼及其走狗趕下台！

若真如此，湯博士的確高招！香港歷史也會記得博士是一位救港英雄！

楼价肯定有一天会大跌.  肯定的.  可是会在那年?  没有说明的话, 这就变成最经典的费话.

其实只要经济没大问题和利率低迷, 楼价下行的风险便不会高.  看起来未来两年这两个问题不会太大.  所以, 这在有物业在手的不用急.  反过来, 没有的人回面对倆难.  没有过去的涨价, 新上车的确实有一定风险, 因为SSD会把物业冻结两年.  (战争的风险没包括)

所以, 有楼的不用急卖, 没楼的就要自己先想清楚. 

还有, 感觉上这里的包租公不少, 他们哪有空叫大家买楼?  要不然, 谁租房?   哈哈. 

To: 12/F Peter Paker

請電郵圖表至 admin@property.hk ，我們會盡快將有關圖表貼上您的留言。謝謝!!

To 21/F and 22/F,

The research I cut is not done by me.  I just read and learnt these from financial magazine and seminar.  I cannot verify and prove its accuracy.  But, in comparison with your 口 up up and 吹吹水, my work is more solid and has substance.

To: 25/F

Your article is too long to read.  That would be great if you can divide it into several paragraphs.  I recommend reading shortly.  Easier to read!!

After preliminary reading, I guess that you want to mention how serious is the euro soverign debt crisis.  I think that if its crisis / bubble really bursts in future, they will do whatever to save their systems.  These may be out of everyone's imagination.  Take it easy....

分析：樓價短期內急升原因，主要因包括加租加價氣氛帶動加上缺盤。因SSD關係，相信大部份業主都不會於兩年內放售。目的為防止抄賣活動影響民生(方向正確)，短期內SSD不可取消，但確實SSD影響物業流通性及換樓鏈，故政府應為SSD建下台階但亦要同樣要防止抄賣活動。

建議：業主把自住物業於兩年內放售，仍要付SSD。及後，業主於放售後一年內購買另一自住物業，新購物業的印花稅可獲減免(上限為上一物業已付的SSD)

我係呢度提出一個合理而可行的新土地政策，由今日開始，每年政府由公佈，例如伍千個住宅單位，可以俾工廠區業主以免地價嘅方式，叫發展商起樓俾啲年青人，而地價就用分期付款方式，於樓宇建成入伙之後，由呢班小業主繳納，以一個新界市值 2百萬嘅單位為例，建築成本連地產發展商利潤當一百萬，可以去銀行用 9成半上會，咁首期連使費十萬銀應該有找，1百萬補地價金額就當地租咁每月收例如3千，置業人士就可望付出一個較低的樓價「上車」，而政府又可以收租代賣斷，而地產發展商同銀行可以繼續做拒哋嘅生意，請行政長官 CY考慮有關想法。

政府如推行此方案，有下列好處 –

香港嘅大型地產發展商都識得强化收租物業組合，以防每年盈利因售樓收益起落而大幅波動，咁政府用穩定收入來源已經攪掂好多議員把口！

年輕人點解未畢業就走去申請公屋？主因係拒哋恐怕成世都上唔倒車，臨老都過唔倒世，咁現在有條路，俾你十萬八萬就上倒車，係咪打定個底先！

而現在持有物業嘅小業主，呢個 (Hire-purchase) 方式對你哋嘅影響已經係最少，除非你持有大量中小型單位出租嘅包租公！

銀行同發展商因為免除左地價大幅波動風險，可以做到薄利多銷，而因為呢啲屋只係用來住，無投資價值，咁就唔驚同胞將這些住宅炒到反轉！

回亮劍兄:

補地價是一次性因更改土地用途而將地價差額付給政府, 而你所指"每月交租給政府"是地租差餉

事實上, 香港有類似的方案, 而且比你的建議更有彈性, 就是HKMC推行的居屋補地價按揭計劃.

而師兄的建議, 小弟覺得最大問題係, 市值200萬的樓, 用100萬購入, 按95%, 另外的100萬, 以地租方式分期收取

買樓的100萬不用還嗎? 假設每月還3000, 地租亦要付3000, 倒頭來每月依然要付6000吧.

事實上, 每一家公司都希望賺最大的錢. 又不希望定價太貴而沒有銷量

要給予工廈地主誘因去改建, 又要改建後低價賣出, 最後一定要政府主導購入地皮, 再以成本價建屋, 才可以壓低賣出價.

所以, 政府已經開始在工業區興建居屋.

還完銀行呢一筆，咁就等如用半價或四折租倒樓住，再加多個逆按揭，咁就唔怕老來做無殼蝸牛，呢樣就係分別！

 發展商全包(地價加建築成本加發展商的利潤) ，其實就係香港樓價高企嘅核心！

當你係一個買大陸平價手袋嘅商人，每個包包入貨價只係十幾銀，你會賣行電視廣告；或係大道中、時代廣場、IFC、太古廣場同人搶租天價舖經營嗎？咁人同此心，發展商如果入塊地都講緊十億八億，加埋建築成本又講緊十億八億，咁以後唔賣翻三十億樓上又點維皮？又點對冲期間風險？

但實行我嘅 (Hire-purchase) 方案，政府可以要求發展商「價低者得」，同之前私人參與居屋一樣，咁發展商嘅風險及利息支出會降低唔少，隨時政府自己起埋都仲得！

致於地價政府可以待業主供滿建築成本加發展商的利潤這塊才收，呢個建議我特開放態度，或者入伙之後數年先俾又如何？

最後現時不能負擔買樓的人仍是買不起，咁十隻手指都有長短，香港要做世界金融中心，呢個高樓價困擾中產會如影隨形。

而且比起租私樓，交租二十年會得到乜？起碼唔使每兩年就面對業主迫遷呢度已經賺左！

相對新居屋方案，我嘅提議係合理得多。

亮劍兄可不可以解釋一下, 假設為一個置業者,

如果購入/租住你所建議的樓, 是每月如何還款/交租?

可能你會講由於樓宇整體成本不變，拆不拆開地價算亦沒甚意義。

但單計大數----請想一想(建築成本加地價)乘合理利潤率大，或者係建築成本乘合理利潤率大？

當然發展商會以「市價」賣樓，但回本加利潤率點都會計埋考慮。

仲有因為發展成本少左，入場門檻會降低埋，競爭大加上投標係以私人参建居屋嘅價低者得形式運作，單單建屋成本都可以減低唔少！

而地價因為以分期 50 年支付形式運作，以自用為主，無曬炒作成份，成本點會唔降低？

點解我提議分期補地價係同應課差餉租值掛勾，主要原因是整體私樓租金一定要同潛在租客嘅負擔能力掛勾，而且租金唔同樓市，係無得囤積居奇，無得俾人炒嘅！

我提出以分期支付形式繳納地價，係睇倒於可見嘅將來，會有排山倒海，仲要係腰纏萬貫嘅同胞走來香港買樓！

上幾年將西九同新界屋仔買上兩皮嘅同胞，先遣部隊黎咋，下一波係市區一手、二手，跟手就新市鎮一手、二手-----

現在唔盡快將「港人自住」同「樓房投資」兩個市場分割，咁如果最後連大西北嘅中小型二手都賣成千萬起錶嗰陣，政府先黎發矛，咁就蛇都死！

政府現在賣地，係一次過賣斷例如 50 年嘅土地使用權，政府有兩個方法收回呢筆錢：一

一係本加利息分五十年收翻！

一係與應課差餉租值掛勾！

而樓價可以去銀行用 9成半上會！

Madonna appeal over Pussy Riot

US singer Madonna has appealed for the release of three members of the Russian punk band Pussy Riot during a concert in Moscow.

The singer told a crowd at the Olympic Stadium on Tuesday night that she was praying for the women's freedom.

She briefly wore a balaclava - in a nod to Pussy Riot's trademark outfits - and had the group's name on her back.

Prosecutors have called for the women, who are accused of inciting religious hatred, to be jailed for three years.

The judge is expected to start delivering her verdict on 17 August. Announcing the verdict could take days, correspondents say.

Maria Alyokhina, 24, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, 22, and Yekaterina Samutsevich, 29, played a song attacking Russian leader Vladimir Putin in front of the altar of Moscow's main cathedral on 21 February.

They said it was a reaction to the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, publicly backing Mr Putin in elections.

'Repression'
Addressing cheering fans at the stadium, Madonna said: "I know there are many sides to every story, and I mean no disrespect to the church or the government, but I think that these three girls - Masha, Katya, Nadya - I think that they have done something courageous."

"I know that everyone in this auditorium, if you are here as my fan, feels they have the right to be free," she said.

Other international musicians including Sting and the Red Hot Chili Peppers have also appealed for leniency.

Artist Yoko Ono has spoken out in support of the band.

In a Twitter post, John Lennon's widow said: "Mr Putin you are a wise man & dont need to fight with musicians & their friends."

In a closing statement to the court on Wednesday, Pussy Riot's lead singer, Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, said the court was carrying out a Stalin-era "political order for repression".

She said that the authorities had refused to listen to the group, and that it was "not a trial over Pussy Riot but of the entire Russian political system".

The three women have been sitting inside a glass cage at the courtroom.

Last week, Mr Putin, who was re-elected president in March, called for leniency towards the women during a visit to London for the Olympic Games.

There are fears among Russian opposition activists that the trial is part of a crackdown on dissent since Mr Putin's return to the Kremlin, following the biggest anti-government protests in recent Russian history.

Pussy Riot's performance inside Christ the Saviour Cathedral was captured on video.

The women danced and sang a song which parodies a Christian prayer, imploring the Virgin Mary to rid Russia of Mr Putin.

Defence lawyer Mark Feygin argued on Tuesday that the case against the women did not stand up because they had been charged with hooliganism under Article 213 of the Russian penal code yet no violence or damage had occurred or been threatened.

History
'In the beginning, there was no Europe,’ writes Professor Norman Davies in Europe: A History. In the beginning all that existed was an unpopulated peninsula attached to the western edge of the world’s largest landmass (Asia). But after humanoid settlers arrived between 850,000 and 700,000 BC, Europe’s temperate climate and unthreatening environment would make it ripe for agricultural exploitation and the birthplace of great civilisations.

It was in Greece and Rome that the continent’s two great ancient societies arose. Greece (first emerging around 2000 BC) was renowned for its philosophers (Aristotle, Plato, Socrates) and democratic principles. Rome – boasting brilliant politicians, and writers like Cicero, Ovid and Virgil – spread its influence by military might. At its peak, the Roman Empire stretched from England to the Sahara and from Spain to Persia.

By the 4th century AD both empires were in terminal decline. Greece had been swallowed by Macedonia under Alexander the Great, then by Rome itself in AD 146. Although Roman emperors in Constantinople (İstanbul) hung on for another 1000 years, the empire’s western half fell to Germanic tribes in 476.

This marked the start of the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From 768 Charlemagne, King of the Franks, brought together much of Western Europe under his rule into what would later be known as the ‘Holy Roman Empire’. After this territory passed into the hands of Austrian Habsburgs in the 13th century, it became the continent’s dominant political power. Elsewhere, an alliance of Christian nations repeatedly sent troops to reclaim the Holy Land from Islamic control. These unsuccessful ‘Crusades’ (1096–1291) unfortunately set the stage for centuries of skirmishes with the neighbouring Ottoman Empire as it took control of Asia Minor and parts of the Balkans from 1453 onwards.

Europe’s grand reawakening also began in the mid-15th century, and the subsequent Renaissance, Reformation and French Revolution ushered in enormous social upheaval.

The Renaissance fomented mainly artistic expression and ideas. The Reformation was a question of religion. Challenging Catholic ‘corruption’ in 1517, German theologian Martin Luther established a breakaway branch of Christianity, Protestantism. Struggles between Catholics and Protestants for supremacy were behind the bloody Thirty Years War (1618–48).

Forced to pick just one defining era and philosophy to sum up modern Europe, it would be hard to pass over the Enlightenment, or the so-called ‘Age of Reason’. This was the period in the 18th century when science and human logic for the first time took supremacy over religious belief. Heavily intertwined with the rapid scientific advances of the time, it ushered in the modern age with its move away from the church and its emphasis on logic, education, individualism and liberal social values.

Whole university courses are taught on the Enlightenment, its factions (eg rationalism versus empiricism), and its pros and cons. However, two thinkers closely associated with it were the antimonarchist, antireligious liberal Voltaire (1694–1778) and Immanuel Kant (1724–1804), who believed humans are rational and autonomous beings, so universal moral laws are possible. Kant was also intensely interested in how humans made sense of the surrounding world.

René Descartes (1596–1650), who famously declared ‘I think, therefore I am’, was one of the rationalist forerunners of the Enlightenment. Jean Jacques Rousseau (1712–78) started off as a believer but later fell out with the movement – whose main social consequence was the French Revolution.

The French Revolution in 1789 was about the populace’s attempt to wrest political power from the monarchy. But in the ensuing vacuum, plucky general Napoleon Bonaparte (1769–1821) crowned himself emperor. Napoleon’s efforts to colonise all Europe ended in defeat by the British at Waterloo in 1815, but the civil laws he introduced in France in 1804 would spread the revolutionary ideas of liberty and equality across the globe.

Having vanquished Napoleon, Britain became a major world player itself. With the invention of the steam engine, railways and factories, it unleashed the Industrial Revolution. Needing markets for goods, it and other European powers accelerated their colonisation of countries around the world, bringing new and exotic riches back to Europe.

Meanwhile the death throes of the Habsburg Empire, or the Austro-Hungarian Empire, were about to rock the continent. Serbia was accused of backing the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne in 1914 and the battle between the two states developed into WWI, as allies lined up on each side (Germany and the Ottoman Empire on the Austro-Hungarian side; Britain, France, Russia, Italy and the USA with Serbia).

Crippled by a huge bill for reparations imposed at the war’s end in 1918, Austria’s humbled ally, Germany, proved susceptible to politician Adolf Hitler’s nationalist rhetoric during the 1930s. Other nations watched as Nazi Germany annexed Austria and parts of Czechoslovakia, but its invasion of Poland in 1939 sparked WWII. During the final liberation of Europe in 1945, Allied troops from Britain, France, the USA and the USSR uncovered the full extent of the genocide that had occurred in Hitler’s concentration camps for Jews, Roma (Gypsies), the disabled, homosexuals, communists and other ‘degenerates’.

The Allies carved out spheres of influence, and Germany was divided to avoid its rising up again militarily. Differences in ideology between the Western powers and the communist USSR soon led to a stand-off. The USSR closed off its assigned sectors – East Germany, East Berlin and much of Eastern Europe – behind the figurative Iron Curtain. With the Stasi, Stalinist purges and more, many Eastern European citizens have appalling tales of political repression to relate from these times.

The ‘Cold War’ lasted until 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell. Germany was unified in 1990. A year later the USSR was dissolved. Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania all grasped multiparty democracy shortly afterwards.

The downfall of communism had a terrible effect in Yugoslavia, where nationalist leaders seized the chance to stir up political unrest and war: some of the young independent nations there are still recovering. For the most part, however, the end of the Cold War has brought a sense of peace to Europe. A sense of cooperation is proving slightly trickier to locate. The EU was formed in 1957 as a trade alliance and has developed fitfully into a political entity since. At this stage, while 16 members have adopted a common currency, governments are having difficulty pushing through the European Constitution needed.

Read more: http://www.lonelyplanet.com/europe/
history#ixzz22xs72XNO

CY 面對 CCL 個個星期係咁創新高，就快亂了方寸，我提出將部份土地(例如每年 5 千個 ) ，以分期支付地價方式 (Hire-purchase)，來取代現在要地產發展商一筆過購入地契年期內使用權方式(Pay in advance) ，有幾點補充！

如果大家求其捉一個香港人來問問，現在樓價貴唔貴？

答案好明顯，大比數勝出嘅係貴啦！

再問啲年青人想唔想上車？

答案好明顯，大比數勝出嘅喺想啦！

但再問一問嗰啲業主，如果政府以行政手段攪冧嗰樓市，好等年青人易啲上車，你又讚唔讚成呢？

答案好明顯，大比數勝出嘅唔讚成啦！

咁問題來啦，月入萬多元樓下有公屋呢個安全網，叁萬幾銀樓上嗰啲人自己有對策上車，但中間呢班人點算？

政府現在用嘅藥係居屋同置安心，之前仲有夾屋、首置及租者置其屋，但以上各式各樣嘅資助房屋計劃，都同樓價有某程度上掛勾！

即係樓價升，政府就加大現金及土地資助力度、放寬多啲受助人仕限制、加大折扣成數就嗰個市場價！

通常樓價升得急，就算無迫切需要嘅人，都會一窩蜂地走去買樓，但政府嘅各種資助置業計劃，又間接上同樓價相互追趕，咁樓市唔升就真係有鬼！

世界唔少樓市泡沫爆破嘅原因，是因為信貸政策過度寬鬆，這會使到那些之前唔夠首期及缺乏供款能力嘅人，都可以入倒市！

那些要政府幫手先可入市者，就係最後賣家，咁連拒哋都出埋場，高位接曬火棒，購買力仲唔耗盡晒？

最惨呢班人因為實力不足，如果個市一回，拒哋唔少人會成為首批倒下來嘅犧牲者，攪得兩攪他們嘅物業會變成銀主盤，然後拖埋其他人落水，主政者愛你變成害你，世界就喺咁無可奈何！

任何一個負責任及有少少良心嘅政府，都要防止樓市狂飆暴跌，最好當然係人人有屋住，個個樂安居，地價以分期支付方式收取，就係防止實力不足嘅人摸頂入市累街坊！

考慮到要照顧香港各階層利益大前題之下，以分期支付地價方式賣出部份土地，係現在最佳藥方。