湯博士講得好啱，我身邊的朋友如果以投資心態來買的話，都不會盲目高追，當然亦都唔可以太過挑剔，否則一樣買唔到樓。

另外一D唔理樓價高低、又唔勤力做功課的，以為係市區樓就盲目高追，結果負資產收場，好在無自尋短見。

我的忠告係：而家市區樓咁貴，想買都要千辛萬苦搵平盤，真係急住買只可買新市鎮低水樓。

"現時將軍澳區內二手呎價約六千六百元水平，故項目是次首批呎價低市價約一成九，亦較原先發展商的意向呎價七千元低約兩成。"

Dr. Tong, I cannot agree with you more.

The major weakness of the argument"買樓自住何需理會樓價升跌"  is that it has the implicit assumption, it is the property price will go up in the long run, so the short term volatility can be ignored. Just ask a question, what if this assumption dosen't hold anymore? Imagine there is one day the God tells you that the price will just go down in the future and you will never see the price going back to your original price in your whole life, then as a reasonable man, will you still buy the property?

The econ 101 tells you the total asset return is equal to the capital gain in asset + interest on the capital (it is the rent if the asset is the property). If the rent cannot cover the capital loss, then your asset return is negative, then why not just put your money under the matress?

So, if you think the property price will go up in the long term and you can withstand the short term volatility, then you should buy and hold. Otherwise, don't enter the market. It is that simple.

Everyone has their own view, I will not comment or argue the market will go down or up in the future coz it is meaningless as I am not the God and noone can tell you what happen in the next second. But pls don't say 買樓自住何需理會樓價升跌 such nonsense argument.

呵呵, 相信年底前跌三成不是夢話吧!!!

楊兄及俊傑二人, 誰眼光準誰分析強, 不用多說, 大家有眼看!!

其实博士应该知道香港的央行行长是美国的联邦储备局，美国联邦储备局现在的主要目的系乜呢，就是支持美国的楼价，帮助美国佬的负资产，所以推出OT，也就说未来一，两年，利息都会非常低。美国佬撑楼市，等于撑香港楼市。

其实大家应该知道，香港是没有自己的央行行长。

見大家討論美國樓市, 想起2004-2006美國樓市猛漲, 形成財富效應, 百姓勇於消費, 經濟茵茵向榮. 至2007年樓價下墜, 房地產泡沫爆破.

想知道: 資產泡沫=財富效應? 財富效應=資產泡沫?

Yes, sort of agree with Dr.  Timing is always crucial in buying apartments.  But the problem is:when people can afford it, like 2003, 2008, where were those people that are shouting for high prices today? They were either terrified by the market or busy enjoying their life with the little bit they've got.

Buying apartments always involve some riskes, for 100% self-use apartments, I think the affordability speaks for all.  If people spend too much time over 10 years speculating the market's ups & downs & spent the cash into rental payments, they also lost their opportunity cost in buying apartments(if u dont't pay the rent, that $$ could be in own pocket already;if u own a flat, your spending pattern will also be more conservative-in other words, more savings)  When I look at the other buddies of my age not buying anything,  they have almost from my eye, no sense at all in managing money.  Every thing counts here.

This year will add more difficult factors due to Euro crisis, new gov.s on board bla bla bla......But basic factors haven't changed much on local market fundamentals, price is not crashing yet(has alot to do with the defensiveness played by the landlords, that's why quiet in 2nd hand market), low interest rate, reasonable rental yield(not high yield but at least for us enough to cover mortgage & misc. expenses) 

Yes, there're people dreaming the properties market will crash by 70%, if it ever happens.  Will be another disaster for H.K. & lower classes,  they might loss their jobs & find it even more difficult to survive(at that time even middle classes have difficulties to keep their jobs or making less, fewer tax income for inland revenue, just wonder who will see all these as good factors?

I read from NY Times that actually many people want to buy apartments in NYC but cannot get mortgages from Banks. So blocks of apartments been sold to hedge-funds, which rent them out on +ve carry (and to sell them when market turns of course).

I suppose over here, TONG means to buy if its reasonable carry (rental > mortgage + expenses).

Be very careful if you want to be market timer (buy low / sell high). Most of us are wrong in this department. Consider market is most bullish at top and most bearish in the bottom.

Good luck.

長期搵笨實

何文田半山 一號....在土瓜灣

峻瀅....在香港東

下一個..........太平山一號....可能在天水圍

""現時將軍澳區內二手呎價約六千六百元水平，故項目是次首批呎價低市價約一成九，亦較原先發展商的意向呎價七千元低約兩成。"

楊兄，吾好睇到糸同一區就以為所有樓都應該同一个價錢，試間長實過去數年出品每況 月下，加上環境、購物、交通、與及與墳場、水泥廠、X填區及因臭味而要長期開冷氣、。如(曰出X城)的現居人仕均叫苦連天!!幾千个斝位得一間超市，......這是否一個理想的生活小區?

就如所有新市鎮－沙田、屯門、大埔等:市中心的樓價長期比偏遠地區高一至兩成，而當遍遠及配套較差的也会因樓齡漸長而失去吸引刀,你是否了解樓市的特性?因為夲人曾經歴此苦 :(

Property price will double before 2016. Try to borrow as much money as you can from banks to buy more flats. You will get rich quick!

Re：
29. mini2012-06-27 13:19:21
 
Property price will drop to half before 2016. If you borrow as much money as you can from banks to buy more flats, then you will be bankrupt quickly!
 

Please be informed that writing on 29 F, mini was not our message.

Your great help will be much appreciated.

mini