李兆基話，樓市不爽，所謂不爽，不升，也不大跌！

策略：若自住，不買，也不賣．

投資：有荀盤，收租也不壞．

炒賣：晒氣．

Who dominate the market trend?

There are four major factors that cause both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. These factors are governments, international transactions, speculation and expectation, and supply and demand.

1. Government
   Government is the big player in the market whom can formulate fiscal and monetary policy in the country. Put it simple, by altering the interest rates and money supply to change how much investment flows into and out of the country.
2. International Transactions
   Hong Kong replies an export and tourism business. Both of them are continually bringing money into HK. This money can then be reinvested and can stimulate the financial and property markets. Put it simple, more rich people higher luxury property price.
3. Hot money
   Speculators or external investors will make profits from the trends. Put it simple, if everyone expects the property price will rise in the future, the roll ball effect will be happened.
4. Supply and Demand
   No need to further explanation.

 Effect on Short- and Long-Term Trends
It is very crucial to understand how these factors causing both short- and long-term fluctuations in the market.

請教湯博士及幾位有識之士 : 本人今年40歲,現有一間現契自住物業及四間收租單位,全在新界西大型屋苑,租金扣除供樓,稅項,什費還剩兩萬,樓價也較買入時升值50%,而伴侶早年被公司辭退後,已經退休多年,而自己月入只有兩萬,但我有幾百萬現金存放大陸做人民幣,你們覺得我是否依舊不變,還是沽出止賺呢?thanks

Market direction is dictated by supply and demand, and the two equations were determined by a number of factors, including government policy, inflow of funds, speculators and genuine buyers (home buyers and investors). All these variables are ultimately influenced by expectations of economic and political conditions. As explained yesterday, the local property market will see a sharp decline next year. Most of the major economic giants will see economic contraction in 2012, arisinig from their deep spending cuts and hefty tax burden. Global trade activities will come down as a direct result. In China, property market will continue its correction. Premier Wen Jiabao already stated in serveral occassions that government officials will come up with more measures to bring down the propety prices throughout China. Debt problems in provincial level will escalate, as banks have been tightening their money lending. Bad and doubtful debts will continue to rise. On the political front, not too many people noticed that Israel is prepared to strike Iran's nuclear capabilities, which could lead to large-scale war and confrontations....All in all, thing are looking extremely ugly. A sharp decline of about 40% in property prices next year is entirely possible.... 

My advice: 6, 2, 1, 1

Sell one or two units. Have your wealth distributed as below: 60% properties, 20% stocks/fixed income vehicles, 10% cash and liquid bonds and 10% gold (or Gold ETFs). Gold holding is a must, as it is for hedging against turbulent times in 2012! 

Most of the major economic giants will see economic contraction in 2012.

Who are they?

My predictions are based on my observations and facts.

Please show me the facts and numbers. Take a simple example, how about the unemployment rate of US?

Tell me what are the facts.

AT,

我年中買了一個單位放租, 就算我認同你出年樓價會跌, 除非跌超過30%, 否則都圍唔翻SSD及劈價的損失……

你真係可以肯定樓價一定大跌!? 謝謝!!

DT. Well euro zone for one will see contraction. It is big enough to drag us down. How about US unemployment? Boy, it is still 9% last month!

I have another big headache for you. Israel test-fired a long-range missile two days ago. Most likely it will begin the Armageddon? Yes, it is is HIS hands, but we know it is coming!

CNN (7/11 2011) The Obama administration has publicly downplayed speculation that the US and Britain are weighing a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. However, some officials say privately the U.S. military and intelligence community is growing increasingly concerned that Israel could be preparing a strike....

Metrolic (3/11 2011) Debka, an Israeli military analysis website, links four events that happened recently in order to make a case that the operation was under way: the successful launch of the Israeli long-range missile; the IDF release of photos showing the Israeli soldiers training with NATO Air Force; the anti-missile exercise ordered in Israeli by the IDF; and the secret visit of defense minister Barak to London in order to gain the UK support.

DT, do you know the consequence of such a strike? Yes, the whole world would be in big big trouble. And that is why I suggest: 10% gold, and use it as a hedge against this likely event.

One more thing: Israel will have to do it quickly, by the end of this year, as Kuwait will no longer allow US fighters to use its base there.

Read my book (it was out back in Nov 2010). I was the only economist who accurately predicted the downturn in 2008, and the rally in 2009. You can find all the statistics in the Bloomberg. BTW, one broker just released its global economic outlook yesterday. It has all the statistics......bye now and take care!! 

I know where you come from.

From what you said, you didn't know much about economy. 

Armageddon. Hebrew Har-Magedon. It ocuured once in the Bible, Revalation 16:16. You didn't know what it means in deed.

Thanks for 'Take care"

如果今日做民意調查：-      
        
香港樓價係咪好貴？-----90 % 以上話係！！    
咁如果 20 年後俾你現價買樓你制唔制？------90% 以上話制！！  
        
香港租金係咪好貴？-----90 % 以上話係！！    
咁如果俾你用現價簽份 20 年租約你制唔制？------90% 以上話制！！  
        
現在按揭利息係咪好低？-----90 % 以上話係！！    
咁如果俾你用現價簽份 20 年定息供樓合約你制唔制？------90% 以上話制！！ 
        
但我如果話俾你知保証層樓每年减值 5 % 嘅話，咁你估有幾多 % 嘅人會買樓呢？ 
        
可見樓宇不單係用黎住，仲有投資因數，咁政府點做先可以解決港人投資需要呢？

政府要樓價跌，其實可以很容易。但政府亦明白到大跌後對整體經濟的殺傷力。日本、97年的香港、現時的美國都是前車可鑑。就連現時的中國，也明白到推死樓市等同推自己入絕谷。非不能也，實不可為也。

不說中國有大把地，就算是香港這彈丸之地，可供開發的土地仍有75%。也即是說只開發了25%。問題是大量推出土地，樓價大跌後，你想救市卻是事與願違，恨錯難返。為政者不可不察也。

我等小業主只`求安居樂業。30多歲置業，辛辛苦苦供完層樓，也差不多時屇退休之年。若能再儲幾個錢，自己可以養活自己，層樓則當遺產留給子女作紀念。

不求名時，不求利。謹只此矣!

I believe a 40% significant drop is possible, but not a neccessary; i also believe war will lead to the price of gold increase.

1. The war is not in E.Asia. 2. Nowadays, HK mainly depends on China Economy rather than US.

So, i would rather concern about China will be Hard-Landed or not.

现在國内正處於一個擴大内需, 棄工業轉商業的時期, 當然有人支有人愁, 我以為這只是與時間競賽的問題, 誰先到達終點, 誰便得到這次的短暫小勝, 打好根基以便日後賽事.  但現在誰勝誰負,還有點言之常早. 

AT

We can all see that the economy of the Euro countries and the States is not doing well.  It is normal for you to predict an economic downturn coming, and I can see where you are coming from.

However, analysis is often not that straight forward.  The sharp rise of all the prices, including daily and commodity items,  came after the financial tsunami in 2008.  Euro has already lower the interest rate despite the inflation rate being higher than expected.  We have basically entered into a time when interest rate cannot be raised.  Together with the eagerness of the Euro and US to stimulate the economy, more injection of funds into the market is possible.  In addition, I am not optimistic about the debt repayment of some countries, given the attitude of their people.  If the financial system has to absorb further write-offs, that will add another possibility for more injection of money into the system to save these institutions so as to remain the economic stability.

If Euro and US is really putting in more money, China will be under an even stronger pressure by those western countries to appreciate RMB.  We all know that it will not be possible for RMB to have much appreciation, and one way to reduce the pressure is to follow: to increase the money supply.  From such, we can expect prices will remain staying high, if not higher, and rent is not likely to fall in the foreseeable future.  Given the low interest rate, stimulation of economic growth, currencies exchange rates, and all the other macro- and micro-economic factors, it is not easy for the property prices to drop by much.

As for the military activities in the areas you mentioned, they are happening every day.  It is really nothing new.  If military actions really reach to the point that seriously affects our economy, then I believe there are a lot more to worry before the property prices.

AT

Sorry to have forgotten to tell you that I am also one of the very few people who accurately predicted today's inflation because of the incident in 2008.  Fluctuation is unavoidable, but overall speaking I am not as pessimistic.

To: (15) 王先生

你寫得好正.

法子

Halo Effect – How does it affect you?

Human behavior is based on their perception of what reality is, not on reality itself.  We may have no awareness of when some appearance or external information influences us. We called this the Halo Effect.

What does it mean? It is a cognitive bias whereby the perception of one trait of a person or object is influenced by the perception of another trait of that person or object. For example, we will judge a handsome man as "more intelligent", a beautiful girl as "foolish". We will tend to believe the sayings of a titled person or some authorities such as Phd, Dr. and Newspaper or books.

What is the lesson learnt?

Don’t judge things only based on some newspaper clips, sayings from the “Expert” or even extract of books or some reports.

How can you avoid it?

Common sense!

To: (15) 王先生

你寫得好正.

To: 政府

政府無責任去滿足人民投資須要.

法子

韋良 & D.T .不相伯仲.

GOOD .PERFECT. EXCELLENT PAPER

Human behavior is based on their perception of what reality is, not on reality itself.  We may have no awareness of when some appearance or external information influences us. We called this the Halo Effect.

Don’t judge things only based on some newspaper clips, sayings from the “Expert” or even extract of books or some reports.

100% .絕對同意.

Today seems english lesson. We can improve both chinese from Dr. Tong and english from DT, AT, Alvin70's, Homeowner & 韋良. Let's know more market trend. What a good analyst!

DT &AT:

You two are good economists because your analysis are based on evidences instead of talking to the air.

But you both fail to understand that you are not talking something in the past, you are making predictions in the future. You know,  future are uncertain, there are lots of risky events out of your expectation.

If you make a right prediction and you act according to your prediction. You win.

If you make a wrong prediction and you act according to your prediction. You loss.

So don't argue any more. Let the fact speaks for itself.

下圖可以了解貨幣供應(Money supply)增加, 從左軸移到右軸的變化.

很同意王先生於15樓的言論，本人就以08年金融海嘯作例子，闡明為何外圍經濟因素不等於樓市走勢的理由。

08年雷曼兄弟破產，金融海嘯席捲全球，當時：

美國經濟差唔差？好差。

歐洲經濟如何？不算好，但肯定比今天好。

中港經濟如何？中國一直在冒起，勢頭一時無兩；香港經濟總算從03年SARS之後恢復至良好程度，而失業率則一直下跌。

當時有冇打仗危機？大國之間沒有，小國衝突和第三世界的燒殺搶掠、種族屠殺無日無之，主流媒體對此等永無休止的內戰根本毫無興趣，因此沒有報導，但不等於沒有發生。

只是香港的媒體沒有報導，大眾便以為世界太平、知道真相的知識份子也因事不關己而不會小題大做，自討沒趣。

因此，當有擦鎗走火事件在較為知名的地區發生，港人便大驚小怪，以為世界末日快來......

最後，當日的樓價如何？高，大眾都說高，專業人士也不一定願意入市，加上97年金融風暴後樓市長期下跌陰霾不散，開始有人沽空自住樓等跌......

結果樓價走勢如何？升，大升特升，在兩年之內升了接近50%！

市區原已高價的屋苑可能升幅較少，但因鐵路效應而冒起的新晉地區，例如元朗，已經一鳴驚人，今非昔比！

為何如此？

因為美國的QE(量化寬鬆)政策使港元在香港經濟繁榮的時候不但沒有跟隨升值，反而大幅貶值；而銀行因為嚴重水浸，又以H按搶攻按揭市場，造成樓市升勢一發不可收拾！

由此可見，現時外圍經濟不佳不等於樓價會大幅下滑，今時今日有按揭的業主大都成數較低，在金管局嚴格的監控下業主大都實力甚強---既然不會劈價賣樓、沒有銀主盤、如何大跌？

健康調整一定會有，但大跌、尤其是短期內大跌，簡直是天方夜譚。

一言蔽之：外圍經濟雖不佳，樓市大跌何其難。

小弟在09年6月，曾經寫過一篇關於日後貨幣大量供應的文章，現在讀來也蠻有趣味。

“朝三暮四”

一個大家非常熟悉的成語，但其由來未必人人都知道。 

話説古代有人養了一大群猴子，某天那位養猴人對其猴子說：“我今天要給你們每隻猴子吃七隻橡果！”猴子們都懷著期盼的心情專心聼著，“現在（白天）我給你們三隻橡果，晚上再給你們四隻橡果！”猴子聽到養猴人那麽說都紛紛失望了，有的猴子竟然難以抑制心中不滿，大吵大鬧起來。。。。。。養猴人見勢不妙，連忙改口說：“現在（白天）我就給你們四隻橡果，晚上再給三隻！”猴子們一聼，馬上開心起來，大讚養猴人愛猴如子了！同樣拿到七隻橡果，猴子爲什麽討厭“朝三暮四”而喜歡“朝四暮三”？看來猴子容易被數字遊戲所迷惑！同樣的客觀條件，養猴人不同的處事方式可以令猴子時怒時喜。猴子如此，人又如何？ 

這次金融海嘯實在非同小可，經濟實質衰退是必然的，大多數人的實質購買力下降也是必然的，這些都不容幻想，問題在於以何種形式反映衰退、下降？無非兩種方式：

1）“朝三暮四”式：極力維持貨幣的幣值，那麽衰退將反映在資產貶值和收入下降等方面，這將是一個非常痛苦和漫長的調整過程。上世紀三十年代的大衰退就是一例，還有1997年亞洲金融風暴後的香港也屬此例。當時港府極力維持港元與美元掛鈎的聯係匯率，結果令港人的收入和資產大幅貶值，人們手持現金不敢投資和消費，結果百業蕭條，經濟陷入惡性循環。 

2）“朝四暮三”式：衰退反映在貨幣的幣值上，也就是令貨幣貶值，從而令人們的資產和收入的帳面值不下降，甚至上升！這樣一來，一般民衆在心理上就不容易感受到衰退的傷害，理由是長期以來我們已經習慣了用貨幣來衡量價值。只要普遍收入（相對貨幣而言）不降，樓價、股價依然上升，人們反而覺得錢多了，敢於大膽消費、投資。只要消費、投資的需求總量達到一定地步，就能夠吸納之前產能過剩的供應量，從而令經濟再次恢復平衡，尋找新的增長點！ 

要實現“朝四暮三” 的理想模式，還需要一個重要條件，那就是：貨幣是否真能貶值？ 

以目前情況看，答案是肯定的，三十年初的各國政府在貨幣政策上還受金本位的限制（金本位在那場大衰退的後期被揚棄），97後港府的貨幣政策受聯係匯率限制，目前各大國政府的貨幣政策卻不受限制。如果只是單一國家的貨幣貶值，例如這次金融海嘯的發源地貨幣美元，那麽她必然受到來自其他國家的巨大壓力，但事實上，這次是各主要國家都團結一致地實行量化寬鬆政策，就算原先不想量化寬鬆的國家，都遲早會受到壓力而走上這條不歸路，這就意味著各主要貨幣都一起貶值，那麽表面上就看不出誰的貨幣在貶值了！ 

不過還是有人意識到貨幣的確在貶值，並且預期目前的量化寬鬆政策會導致日後嚴重的通脹，他們爲了保護自己的財產，就紛紛湧進投資市場，以致各地股市、樓市以及商品價格迅速上升！各國政府看到這種情況，心裏是又喜又怕！

喜的是：資本終于重新流動了，資產價格的上升也令人們自我感覺良好，願意繼續消費、投資，而且也可以令原先的垃圾資產變成優質資產，經濟復蘇有望了！ 

怕的是：如果各類資產的價格上漲過快，當資金還未流入實體經濟，在實體經濟尚未復蘇前，新的資產泡沫恐怕就已經形成了！那將令政府左右爲難，甚至可能大家都不信貨幣了，從而令戰後形成的全球信用貨幣體系崩潰，後果不堪設想！

各國政府的如意算盤是：讓資產價格在政府可控的狀態下慢慢上升，從而爭取時間讓深受重創的實體經濟逐漸復原！之後再吹捧若干個新的經濟熱點，例如環保業、再生能源業等以吸納因目前量化寬鬆政策而產生的巨額資金，令經濟活動重新達致平衡！ 

因此政府今天要宏調、明天要微調，一時說要力保經濟增長，另一時又說關注通脹，投資市場也跟著上上下下。唉！連我也覺得各國政府真是處境尷尬、心力交瘁！其實他們是在向投資者傳達一個信息：“孩子們！你們可以炒這炒那，問題不大，但是千萬不要太過分！” 

一言蔽之：牛市確信無疑，沿途風高浪急！

SUN MOON:

我英文好水,但連續幾篇英文談話,真正各有千秋.好過上堂.

D.T講出人(買賣,投資,自住)心理(心態)問題.

博士此文, 如果標題用 "問蒼茫大地, 誰主沉浮" , 則吸引力和感染力都會更強一些.

這樣的題目, 既可論樓市, 也可議政局, 又或者兩者交替議論, 頌一頌中産的覺醒, 贊一贊 "百萬業主競自由, 糞土當今泛民酋."  

大家不出售，樓價如何下跌？這樣，樓市的主動權還不是在小業主手裡？

咁發展商便可以吸盡買家了，小業主拿住舊樓過世。

小人物---60 - 70 年代美孚新邨係山卡罅地方，去中環成粒幾鐘呀老友！現在交通四通八達，隨左計大市升幅，
          
仲要計埋交通改善因素先合理，如要比對港人薪金 / 美孚每呎樓價，請揾天水圍同屯門黎比！！！

博士的文章都唔中肯，大部份業主唔賣，一部份業主因為經濟問題要賣，樓市都係下跌。

無可能100萬個小業主都唔賣啦

樓市總跟在股市的尾巴，真正主導股市的期實是公司本身，它的PE及未來回報，而大炒家及基金公司也可影響其價格，政府也可入市。因股市升跌直接及間接影響市民直接收入及看法，因而數月之後樓市價格必然跟随，但基金公司及政府不可能大舉入市或出售，更不存在衍生及沽空，而本人更相信没有政府想看見自已的國家走進谷低，那真正掌管樓市命默的究竟是誰？

其實做生意就好像吸毒，只要一開始便停不了，只能越做越大，不然就只有等死，但問題是道友一死，陪葬的人多不乘數，没有了道友，世界也就滅亡了......

各位早晨，