香港雖小, 但在地產市場上亦分為不同的區域, 不同的區域有不同的人口架構 和地區的經濟發展條件, 切不可只是把全港看成鐵板一塊; 香港的東部(將軍澳、西貢)和西部(屯門、元朗)便是兩個截然不同的地區。

另外, 誰人不把大陸因素計算在香港的發展軌跡的話, 誰就是大笨旦。 所以, 看香港地產發展的話必先看珠江三角洲的地圖, 最新的地圖, 便可以看出重大的線索, 比如說國家在這區域的基建發展。

君不見大地產商現在的力度大都集中在屯、元地區嗎? 他們是春江水暖鴨先知呀! 不明白,不相信的話, 三、五年後回頭再看便會知道的了！

一句話, 魔鬼在全局!

大地主咄咄逼人，八萬五重新評價

前任房屋署長、現任房協副主席的鄔滿海在昨天有如「局長上身」，表示可能興建地皮面積較細的兩至三座、甚至是單幢公屋，也表示最快在年底實施白表居屋申請者可以免補地價，轉買二手居屋，以活化居屋市場。這兩種做法固然是「舊聞」了，但是這些政策的預算上馬速度是如此之快，可證明了梁振英的大推土地、增加房屋供應是動了真格，而其推行之速，相信也會是雷厲風行，快得在人們的意料之外。

正如我們在日前說過，梁振英政府大量推出居屋和公屋，以及中下價樓宇，打擊這個檔次的市場，已是既成的事實。而是市場真正的不明朗因素，只在於他會不會也大量推出豪宅和商業樓宇的土地供應，把這兩個價格居高不下的市場也推倒下來。我們對於豪宅市場，認為政府必須把豪宅的定義提高，如果像現時這般，一千呎面積，七成實用不到的單位，也定義為「豪宅」，這未免是國際笑話了，也只有現時的高官才覺得這種做法是很嚴肅、很正確的...行為，所以也有人說，他們造成今日身敗名裂的局面，也是咎由自取，不值得去可憐。

現時香港的豪宅市場，價格之高，連一個退休行政長官也買不起一間，而且這個特首還不是清廉得兩袖清風的那一種，這應該是全地球都不會有的奇聞了。而對於商業樓宇市場，現時租金高企，迫死了無數小商戶，中小型企業慘不堪言，而且業主加租毫不手軟，越是香港大地產集團經營的商場，越是講數據、越沒有人情味，反而是那些老牌英資地主，還會顧忌形象，對於租戶有所寬容，香港的地產霸權惡名昭彰，豈無因哉？梁振英政府的大量推出商業用地，以減輕中小企的租金壓力，瓦解地產霸權，應該是香港大部份人的共同願望。

至於大量供應土地，這會令人想起當年的「八萬五」，而我們也想趁此機會，客觀地辯證一下當年「八萬五」政策的利敗得失。

董建華當年的「八萬五」，令到樓價大跌，固然是害慘了不少中產階級，數以十萬的市民成為了負資產，許多因而燒炭，死者也有不少了。但是，在1997年，樓價泡沬已成，就算董建華不推出「八萬五」，泡沬會不會爆破呢？答案是照樣會爆破，不過不會爆得這麼快、程度也有分別，不會爆得這麼慘。換言之，1997-2003年樓價大跌的因素有兩個，一個是自然現象，另一個是「八萬五」，所以人們燒炭的責任，公道點說，董建華只佔了一半。

「八萬五」有不少人受害，但有沒有人得益呢？答案是有的，而且得益者還不少。在二千年打後，有多少家庭成功因「八萬五」而上樓，因而改善了居住環境？多少人在政策下買下了自住公屋，或是買了居屋，從此安枕無憂。從2002年至2006年，多少人因「八萬五」政策而在低價買了房子，因而至今賺到盆滿砵滿？可以這樣說，因「八萬五」而受惠的家庭，肯定比因「八萬五」而受害的人還要多，只是得益者在悶聲大發財，不會讚揚董建華或梁振英，而受害者則站了出來，譴責當政者而已。平心而論，當年「八萬五」，低下階層是受惠了，原來的中產階級是受盡折磨，但是新起的中產階級則也受惠而買了平樓。說到工商業的經營環境，中小型企業無不嘗言，最賺錢的年份莫過於2004至2006年，因為當時租金平、人工不高，到了2008年，經營環境便開始逆轉了。

總括而言，「八萬五」在金融財務上，有得有失，有人賺錢有人虧蝕，但是在整體改善市民生活環境而言，卻是做對了。而梁振英究竟應該採取甚麼地產政策，我們只能說，無論他採取甚麼政策，都一定會有人受到損害，這是地產市場所無法避免的事。也許可以換句話說，梁振英一邊否認歷史上的「八萬五」，一邊要大幹實際上的「八萬五」，要想面面俱圓做好人，這是不可能做到的事。他只能朝著對香港最大的利益那方去走，畢竟，地產是資本主場之一，有人得利，有人虧本，也是沒法子的事。

博士---世界上任何資產泡沫爆破前，市場上必有過量信貸，這會使本來用於支持生産和交易的信貸，被大量轉移至投資固定和金融資產。

資產的價值之所以飛升，乃進入投資或投機市場的資金過剩所致，而非反映其長期生産力提升，

此時資產價格往往脫離其實際生産力而火速上升，直至市場人士醒覺其值過高而引發抛售。

資產價格下跌，導致銀行信貸抵押品價值不足，銀行要求追加抵押品或催收貸款，引發企業財政危機並損害其盈利能力！

投機者見勢色不對，急急抛售資產，觸發下一輪資產價格下跌！

樓評家論市：盤荒就要創新高

二手樓盤鬧盤荒，情況已去到極嚴重的地步，全港私人住宅單位約有 110萬個，假設其中７成為自住物業短期內不放賣，即餘下三成約 33萬個盤活躍於市場。
由 2010年 11月至現在，根據地產資訊網 property.hk資料顯示，成交 16萬個單位，並被納入 SSD範圍內被鎖死而未能釋放於市場，另餘下的十多萬活躍盤，因為以下幾種因素也封盤不賣：
1.租金爆升，過去一年已升約 15-20%，業主見收租回報好又怕落錯車所以觀望。
2.以前做超低利息按揭的業主，利息是同業拆息+0.7，即按揭利息少於一厘，相等於借 100萬分 20年期還款都只是約需 10萬元利息開支，但如果他們將此物業放賣再購買新的便不能再亨有如此超低優惠利率。
3.想換樓的業主受制於按揭收緊政策，換樓人士因不能應付新購物業首期而放棄將自住物業放賣變現換樓。
以上種種因素直接或間接導致放盤斷層，在七除八扣下，可供出售的二手樓盤數量祇得幾萬個，以全港 18區平均分配計算，每區就只得 2千至 3千個二手樓盤，做地產代理想話貨如輪轉都幾困難，缺盤嚴重地步是近十年從未見過的。
筆者最近跟銀行高層飯局交流，銀行友好表示，銀行內部有定期風險評估測試，數據內容包括：樓按供款呆壞脹比率、信用卡欠款比率以及該行已經沒有任何銀主盤，各種數據顯示銀行水浸，出盡法寶低息搶佔借貸市場。
樓價乾升，政府又出招，過去為了打擊樓價推出 SSD、收緊按揭成數，取消國內投資移民等，現在更使出撒手鐧，就是當年 1997年出口術 8萬 5政策，直接令到樓價下跌，負資產出現，民不聊生。上星期政府重施故技出口術發放消息到各大媒體，未來三年新樓供應 6萬 5，直接引致過去週六、日成交馬上停頓，有發展商看到勢色不對，即時把陳年貨尾勁減價出貨。
適量調整是好事，長遠而言樓價軟着陸普天同慶，但政府粗暴打壓樓市，有經歷過 97負資產慘痛經驗的香港人一定不會忘記。筆者寄語下屆政府，勿忘記 97帶來的痛苦，對二手樓市政策三思而後行。

花無百日紅,樓市亦無可能不停升

現階段樓宇作為投資,風險十分高,炒樓不如炒股,炒樓成本高,印花稅,經紀佣金,額外印花稅,律師費等等,反觀股票成本低,印花稅(同樓宇的印花稅相差極遠),經紀佣金(同樓宇的經紀佣金相差極遠),交易費等,最重要係萬一市況變差,股票壯士斷臂,斬都快D,樓就未必可以脫生,炒股好過炒樓

很中肯的表達，有實質的感覺，

I like

I don't really think the coming note-printing parties will boost up the stock market.  If you trusted more money led to stock market prosperity, this would be totally wrong.  The fundamental driver of stock market is enterprises' PROFITS.

If developed countries continue to printe more notes, it will only bring about INFLATION, rather than increase in real demands.  Note printing can simply make limited resourses more expensive and expensive, becasue speculators use unlimited money to buy limited resources (e.g. natural commodities, properties, etc).  Acts of printing money are costless.  Given that money is more than before, if people then turned these printed currencies to stock markets, increase in demand for stock would drive up stock prices.  Right??

Yes.  If the stock prices go upwards, more people will be attracted to print more shares.  It is easy to understand.  Printing shares is as easy as printing notes / money.  Extra money will only chase limited resourses, not stock.  So please don't believe that QE3 will make stock market prosperous.

Moreover, more printed money will go to "limited" resources (e.g. gold, silver, land, oil, food, etc).  These raw materials will in turn get more and more expensive.  Labour prices will also follow to grow up.  Labour costs, land costs and raw materials will go upwards greatly.  In short, there is no doubt that enterprises' burdens on costs are getting heavier

However, at the current moment, real demands do not recover from financial crisis in 2008 and 2011.  People and governments are of heavy debts and deleveraging is in progress.  People's desire to spend money are shrinking.

If enterprises' costs are heavy and the market demands are languid (weak), how would enterprises get good profit performance??  Performance of stock market is profit.  According to recent result announcements, most of result announcements are not good especially for small enterprises.  If enterprise's profit is not good and share is easy to print, why would you still trust that money will flow to stock market after QE???

USD600 billion were printed during the QE2.  Hang Sang Index started to drop from 24000 - 25000 in Nov 2010.  The recent bottom of HSI after this is around 16000 - 17000.  Now HSI is struggling around 20000 - 21000.  HSI does not move up after QE2.

Do you still believe money printing can help you make easy money in stock market??

SSD only help big developers to pre-sell new development flats without competition from those purchasers who have just bought the same new development from the same developer. The most idoit can tell and I wonder why our Financial Secretary MR TSANG TSUN WA still insist he was correct in his introduction of  SSD.

Is he a accomplice of MR HUI SZE YAN? I hope not and the mass media should find out.

我同意湯博士的話法...太陽 東起 西落  什麼時候看到日出,什麼時候看到日落

To 14. Peter Paker,

Your view for the relationship btn QE3 & stock market is great!

I predict the HSI will reach 24000-25000 in 2012,but not for long.Now I only doing short term trading with strictly limited budget.I feel that the stock market is a geart casino full of opportunities for speculators.I know it's only small profit,still I like to get involved  a bit   :)  

老人家說: 風暴來臨前通常都是風和日麗...............

老人家說: 風暴來臨前通常都是風和日麗...............

To Sugar (17/F),

I am not good at speculation.  So my return from stock market in recent years was very bad.  Year 2011 is the first year I lost money, since 2003.  Also, I sold 40,000 shares LINKS (823) at $25 at the beginning of 2011 which was previously bought at $22.  This sale decision is super stupid and foolish.

To Peter (21/F),

Your so called "stupid" action already earned quite a lot!I can buy a very nice handbag with the profit.

I think any ordinary people who dares to invest a mill in the stock market really has guts. so,I appreciate"火燎森" a lot.I keep my stock level at around 300,000 HKD constantly,I feel that I can't handle more.I'm in the stock market just 2 yrs and would like to learn more thro short term trading.

To: K (5 - 6/F),

If you go to watch flat, you may understand how tight is the number of residential units available for sales.  Don't just shout up anybody without thinking!!

To Sugar,

I am struggling with how to further my portfolio.  I build up HK$3 million (including properties, net of mortgage loan) wealth from zero, through hard-working and stock investments.  However, when I achieved $3 million now, I find it hard to grow up further.  Maybe, it is due to bad and boring stock market, my bad stock tactics, poor economic environment, etc.

I don't know the exact reasons.  But, making money from stock market now is not as easy as 2004 - 2007.

To Peter,

From zero to 3 mill, & mainly thro investing stocks...that's very outstanding!You have my great admiration(i hve some rich friends & relatives but none of them success in trading stocks)!

I guess,the stage fr zero to 1 mill is most tough and risky, you have to be very aggressive in order to get the 1st "bucket of gold".When you've got 3-5 mills,you will become more cautious,so it's natural that ur wealth seems stop growing.But I think @ this stage,risk control is of utmost important.In fact,according to 7/2 rules,you are likely to reach 10 mill in 10-15 yrs time anyway(depends on ur yrly investing return),so there's no reason to be too hurry.

Compared to you,i'm only a nobody.But, i try to drop a few lines.just don't laugh at me.

1.HK property market:on the high side,only hold 1-2 apartments,better just one for own use.

2.Hve a look at the US property market.Seemingly start to recover.For ur interest,pls go to www.zillow.com. You can buy a villa with ~US$300000 only.Of course the drawback is the long distance and the relatively high land tax.

3.Keep an eye on the mainland property market(esp.上海,珠海,重慶).At the moment. HK citizens are not allowed to buy any real estate in a lot of provinces.However,the condition will be changed in 2013/2014(who knows ) maybe.For more info,feel free to email me.

4.Commodities.If London Gold down to 1300-1400,i will buy in with not more than 10% of  my cash.

5.HK stock market.Stick to short term trading strategy.

Just for ur reference.Good day  :)

to Sugar:

Thanks for your compliment.  To be sure, around 40 - 50% of my wealth comes from my career.  I work for 12 years since my university graduation.  Over this period, my salary has grown by 6 - 7 times.

Also, the best periods of the stock investment are before 2007 and after Oct 2008.  Before 2007, the global and PRC economies were prosperous.  I made much money from disposals of 941, 388, 1919 and many IPO exercisesduring 2007. 

I sold all stocks since the end of 2007.  In Oct 2008, I almost held cash and bought stock around 12000.  So I made money from buying stock at the buttoms.  I was lucky.

I think stock market in the coming 1 - 2 years will be very volatile.  No significant upwards movements in HSI are expected.  It is hard to earn easy money recently.  However, I strongly recommend you to work hard and excel your career paths.  If you have stable job and stable cash flow, you would be able to invest aggressively without too much hesitation.

As my weath base is big and the salary increment is slow now, the struggling stock market makes me hard to make money.  That's why I do not manage to increase my base after getting $3 million.

Thanks,Peter.Great chatting w/ you.

I'm just deeply hooked to to the stock market.It's such a wonderful world,so exciting!It's not easy money at all.$ from the property market is much more easy.

I never worry about $,for my demand for material is very low.A bottle of  Scotch is enough to make me happy.I worked in an profession that earned pretty much but i quitted the job and went to Europe for quite a while...I earned ~2.5 mill in 5 yrs,so I 'm a speculator.I use the $ to buy my "freedom",not shiny diamonds or trendy Gucci bags.