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1. 向泛民说不 2012-01-31 11:52:40 |
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昨天看了80年代的猎鹰，一个活生生的例子，当年的一个就快退休的沙展，竟然只是租房同包租公一起住。包租公对那个沙展夜返屋企不满。 今天的膛房其实比当年已经进步了不小，最低限度，私隐提升了。班废材仲可以点。 |
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2. anggie T. 2012-01-31 12:31:24 |
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To No.1) I almost forgot the TV episode you mentioned by Andy Lau. I myself have a colleaque in office, works so hard, making reasonable income(40K to 50K per month at least) still buying an apartment is her dream that seems can never come true.(already close to 52,3 yrs old, I don't think a sales person can keep the high productivity when she turns 60 yrs old or above) Reasons? Mutiple, but put it in no.1 first is unrealistic mode of spending, she's paying 14-15K in rent(expense), personal expense is also high(cost to all living & entertainment & keep up the education of a kid) Tried to persuade her she should try lower cost areas but not islandside.....But she loves "face" & "feel" like it...... That's how it all ended up! |
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3. Yellow Man 2012-01-31 12:58:44 |
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Stupid idiot who only loves HK Island... We spend less money, less travelling time (less traffic in NT and better railway connections to the city centres) but way better living when we live in NT. HK Island's roads are too narrow so people's minds are narrow too. That's HK, very HK.
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4. SANDY 2012-01-31 13:26:57 |
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小時家境也窮, 租用一房(兄弟姐妹留在房內不可出客廳), 包租公會罵人的. 廁所和廚房都是公用的, 全屋約有3戶人吧! 但父母都勤力上班和加班, 當時梗係無綜援啦! 真唔明現在的人住公屋(有私人空間), 有綜援, 有免費書讀, 有交津, 有生果金, 仲常常要求政府再增加福利? 他們真的洗碗的工作不能做嗎? 議員們還是盲目地替他們要求各種福利?????? |
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5. anggie T. 2012-01-31 13:28:16 |
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Yes, Mr. Yellow man. I've been the kind of person you mentioned. I lived on HK Islandside for my first 38yrs. But life in NT is so much better, bigger, roads wider. Even your dream is now bigger. Well-said. But I'm still struggling on the point, whether still buying apartments on islandside?(for pure investment purpose) Not new ones, too pricey, but reasonable old ones with big sizes & good location that I can renovate & rent it out?? Any comments buddies? |
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6. DT 2012-01-31 13:50:32 |
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李寧以3億元沽出香島道33號項目5號屋 , 香島道33號由新世界發展策劃，共有10間座，而李寧在2006年以1.5億元一手購入該大宅，持貨不足6年，賬面賺1倍。(大紀元2012年01月14日訊) Below is the estates compiled to CCI data. | Luxurious estates | | | HK | Beverly Hill | 比華利山 | | HK | Cavendish Heights | 嘉雲臺 | | HK | Clovelly Court | 嘉富麗苑 | | HK | Convention Plaza Apartments | 會展中心 會景閣 | | HK | Dynasty Court | 帝景園 | | HK | Hong Kong Parkview | 陽明山莊 | | KL | Parc Oasis | 又一居 | | HK | Residence Bel-Air I, II, IV, VI | 貝沙灣 I, II, IV, VI | | HK | Robinson Place | 雍景臺 | | KL | Sorrento | 擎天半島 | | KL | The Arch | 凱旋門 | | HK | The Belcher's | 寶翠園 | | HK | The Leighton Hill | 禮頓山 | | KL | The Waterfront | 漾日居 | | HK | Tregunter | 地利根德閣 | The CCI or MassCCI doesn't include 香島道33號. Lesson Learnt : 所謂「盡信書不如無書」，多做一些調查工作是必需的。 |
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7. 80's Passerby 2012-01-31 14:09:14 |
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I agree with Dr. Tong. In the recent discussion with one of my acquainted agents, I queried few lately notable transactions . Again, it was proved that the news about those transactions are misleading and of incomplete facts. (Such as? Well, it is unethical to disclose the details publicly). Even if the Centaline index only provides an overview of the market movement, it is at least standardized and concluded from actual transaction records. To No. 2, Your case is very interesting ! It would be a potential story for TV drama. To No. 3, With due respect, I would suggest you sharing your view with any of your relatives and friends who having been living in HKisland side since their early age. Everything happens for a reason. |
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8. 無奈 2012-01-31 14:45:07 |
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to angle T: the case of your colleaque is not rare. many times in my life I had that kind of dream which I name it a quality of life. Too bad the left- and- right wings politicians look at the simular cases as their weapon to conquer the gov't police. |
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9. 無奈 2012-01-31 14:58:37 |
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文章內「如近日所報導，成交之疏落，業主之劈價，難免令人誤會樓市已下調15%至20%，但實則只是三幾個百分點…」，我認為，即使這三幾個百分點也不能反應真的下跌，因為個別成交案例而已，有人說樓價下跌了，上車指日可待云云，但當他真的去尋找的時候，心頭好多時的物業價錢沒怎的下跌，依然叫價堅挺。 |
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10. 向泛民说不 2012-01-31 15:00:39 |
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最近成交比较低，应该看一个月的平均值会合理一点。如果看一个月平均值，其实都好稳定。卖自住楼等跌的肯定心焚入火，以现在的低息，如果楼价不跌超过20%,根本都是输。 |
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11. Yellow Man 2012-01-31 15:09:34 |
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Re: anggie
As suggested by a 師兄 here in his earlier post (I forgot if he was 仲達 or someone else):
「一手市場中，新界樓泡沫比港九樓大。 但是，二手市場中，市區樓價遠高於新界(撇除個別樓價特高的新市鎮)，港九樓市泡沫反而大過新界。故此，如果樓市有大幅調整，不論短期或長期，一手的新界樓和二手的港九樓會有較大跌幅！ 」
Good reference for pure investment purposes, and it seems right...
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12. Yellow Man 2012-01-31 15:33:33 |
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So from this point of view, if the market is going up, go for HK or Kowloon 2nd hand, as you can gain the most from the bubble. But if the market is going down, and you really have to invest, better choose NT 2nd hand properties with greater locations, such as the the MTR station properties...
In the past several months, CCL NT West just dropped from 78 to 76 whereas all other locations (HK, Kowloon, NT East) have dropped much more than that. |
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13. 利港人 2012-01-31 15:41:28 |
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11樓Yellow Man： 「一手市場中，新界樓泡沫比港九樓大。 但是，二手市場中，市區樓價遠高於新界(撇除個別樓價特高的新市鎮)，港九樓市泡沫反而大過新界。故此，如果樓市有大幅調整，不論短期或長期，一手的新界樓和二手的港九樓會有較大跌幅！ 」
此分析的確是仲達兄見解，好似係上年11月左右的回應。
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14. 資深投資者陳清白的見解 2012-01-31 16:09:24 |
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在今期星島超級睇樓王(1月28日)，資深投資者陳清白有以下見解： 今年樓價會跌一成多，新界樓及供應多的區域樓價壓力會較大。 要買樓投資就要避開大型屋苑，揀銅鑼灣及灣仔區舊樓，租金有保證同博收購發橫財。 11及12樓Yellow Man引述仲達的預測得以在過去數月中加以證實，喜見網友中有如此高手，但似乎與陳清白的意見有頗大出入，大家點睇？ 我自己對陳清白的意見好有保留，因為銅鑼灣及灣仔區舊樓價錢絕不便宜，租金保證有幾高？另外，銀行對太舊的物業隨時唔批按揭也提高了風險。 |
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15. 15樓讀者 2012-01-31 16:11:08 |
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SORRY，唔小心貼錯了仲達兄的舊文，請ADMIN代為刪除，謝謝。 |
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16. 向泛民说不 2012-01-31 17:24:50 |
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个个人都话楼价高，其实以现在香港人的工资，基本上是可以撑得起这个价钱的。 97年到03年代问题，是香港人好多失业，减人工，导致了被逼仓的困境。先会出现负资产。 如果说楼市泡沫，其实应该是工资泡沫，如果工资不跌，没有失业问题，楼价点跌。 |
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17. CD ROM 2012-01-31 18:07:34 |
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現在的主流報紙很多都有很鮮明的立場去報導, 完全是不中立, 客觀. 讀者沒加上自己的理性分析的話, 真的很易 "中伏" |
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18. 法子 2012-01-31 20:22:43 |
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Fully agree with (4) Sandy. I had similar situation in the past and now have same opinion. |
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19. 80後銀行從業員 2012-01-31 21:51:51 |
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To : Yellow Man and Anggie Talking about regional property price, I think it's inversely correlated to distance to central business district (CBD). Now CBDs in HK is Central/Admiralty and with KLN station as the emerging CBD.
Admittedly NT is a better place to live but people choose to live in HK island or core KLN district at premium for a reason - resistance to downside risk! Affordabilty of property owners living there is higher and land supply is relatively limited. |
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20. anggie T. 2012-02-01 00:20:45 |
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Thank u 80's Banker & all other buddies that replied. The CBD index is a check point for sure & basically my own family experience also suggested apartments on islandside is valuable overtime. From the same street, Cloud View Rd, Mid-level North Point, prices varies from round 10K -20K(Braemar Hill Mansions almost as old as me haha!)per sq ft, on top of Braemar Hill, the price is also similar to those newer apartments on top of Kowloon station.That's why if Mr. Yellow Man's point is right the 2nd hand property market on islandside would adjust more dramatically........Sounds good news! |
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21. 仲達 2012-02-01 00:31:33 |
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十分多謝Yellow Man兄引用本人過往的預測並證明其為準確。 至於八十後銀行從業員兄所指的市區樓抗跌力強，本人大致上同意，惟不建議過度進取。 至於中原指數的存在價值，在於提供一個較全面及科學化的統計數據，讓人對市場有更全面的了解---報章為了吸引讀者注意，往往挑選極端的成交價來作報導，因此無論個別天價成交或者劈價出貨都會出現在地產版頭條，更何況某些報紙有既定立場甚或反對地產霸權......耳濡目染之下小市民容易被誤導。 請謹記，在做出置業般的重大決定時，頭腦應冷靜、心思要慎密，不應被太多極端的成交價誤導---故此本人頗為反對初次置業者於高壓的一手樓售樓廠下人生的重大決定。 一言蔽之：極端成交不客觀，全面分析方正道。 |
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22. 無名 2012-02-01 09:39:49 |
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23. 向泛民说不 2012-02-01 10:29:44 |
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昨天有看80后的猎鹰，刘德华要抓小贩就抓，而且大条道理，因为他们犯法。 如果80后返去，会不会去围堵刘德华呢？ |
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24. 阿土伯 2012-02-01 11:10:43 |
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非常同意湯博士的見解,市場上充斥住誤導的信息.....基本上信一成都死,唯一可信的是失業率和就業人口! |
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25. 向泛民说不 2012-02-01 11:51:42 |
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其实楼价要下跌，有几个可能啦， 发展商，要钱不要货。 第二 失業率和就業人口出现变化，小市民被迫卖楼。因为大家都知道，买卖楼宇的成本达到5到10%。如果不是出现非常悲观的情况，小业主是不会抛售自己手中的房子的。 |
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26. 80's Passerby 2012-02-01 12:11:49 |
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To reply No. 21, Indeed ! It has reflected in the present turnovers in Kowloon Station and in tranditional luxury apartment areas. Upcoming, the land supplies concentrate on NT whereby the price in HK island and Kowloon (excluding new Kowloon) are substainable. |
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27. 3罪請安 2012-02-17 20:00:19 |
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