US Economy 2012 – The Morning Star
While people are still talking about the US economy recession, they didn’t notice how Obama’s policy works. If you lift your eyes to the horizon, you can see the Morning Star arising. Look at the following data and trend.
- US unemployment rate
Nearly 3.4 million jobs were posted in September. What does it mean? An average 4.2 unemployed workers were competing for each opening in September. That's slightly better than August, but it is still more than twice the 2 to 1 ratio that economists say is healthy.
Look closely the trend, the August figure, previously reported as a gain of 57,000 jobs, was nearly doubled to a gain of 104,000 jobs. The September figure, originally reported as a 103,000 jobs gain was revised sharply higher to a gain of 158,000.
Employers advertised more jobs in September than at any other point in the past three years. The increase suggests hiring could pick up in the next few months.
What we can expect the US unemployment rate? The trend is your friend.
- US Housing
Toll’s absorption rate was 5% in Q3. What does it mean? Homes are actually starting to sell!
Commercial spending rose 17% in Q3. Where they spend? It went into building factories, rental apartments, office buildings etc. What does it mean? It spent on construction jobs.
- GDP
The latest one is revised to 2%. Good or Bad? This is the positive number! And the 3rd consecutive positive number is on the right track. Can we expect the economy is back?
- QE – When it will come and when it will not come?
Some people are still looking for the QE3 to …. QE n. If US economy is back, why should the Fed launch the QE? Why OT prevails now instead of QE? Gold is a very good indicator for QE. You speculate the downside of Gold that it will be more profitable than the upside for next several months.
- European Crisis
Keep story short. The younger sons (Greek and others) lived in a debauched life and returned back the Father (IMF). Now, the elderly son (Germany) paid their debts. Yes, it will affect the Global economy to a certain level.
Conclusion:
The US economic recovery is driven by housing and construction! Did you see the morning star arising?
As I said before, the mega bull trend of Dow is going to 14,000 in 2012.
How does it affect HK Stock Market? Will HSI follow Dow? Will Property Price run after the HSI?
Timing is very important. If it comes true, the HK property price will keep his momentum to falling to a certain level, probably below 97 prices as the Government told us before until the end of Feb. Starting March 2012, it will slowly recover its upward trend when the Banks open the door of the mortgage loan services again.
Hop it works!
