Factors that affect property prices

1. Economic growth/ real income

2. Interest rates

3. Consumer confidence

4. Availability of mortgage finance

5. Demographic factors

6. Speculation

7. Inherited wealth

8. Unemployment rate

What do think think? I believe a maximum 15% drop.

「王瑞明表示，明年選出何人做新特首，對樓價的影響很大，須靜觀其變，才定下入市策略。他認為，候選人「L君」倘若當選，對住宅市場必有壞影響，因為「L君」從不認為八萬五政策有問題，所以「L君」一旦當選的話，相信未來數年樓價會有危險。」(節錄自明報陸振球先生)

L君是個危險人物，大家請自求多福。

振英哥 上台, 香港必定步希臘後塵!!!

「振英福利主義」必定令香港步向滅亡~~

正呀~~ 開正我 「末日博士」嗰條路~~~ ha~~ ha~~

甘中意社会主义，点解吾去北韩。

香港最少有一半人口是因为逃避社会主义，而来香港定居的，包括李嘉诚。

如果想走社會主義會阿爺接管不就得,哈哈~

想請問各位,有沒有人在ssd 後買了200樓下的樓,現在要供多少錢?

Dr. Tong, Most of your readers, including yourself, missed the basics of economics completely. Prices are still dictated by demand and supply. In the last sentence, you pointed out that there is a shift of the supply curve. But then you must look if there is any reason at all that property developers would slash their selling prices, together at the same time. They will do it if they think property market will continue to heading south, or economic conditions are deteriorating, including rising umemployment. You will see all these happening in 2012.

One of reader is barking at the wrong tree, as far as the reason behind in the sharp jump in Italian government bond yield goes. Banks, insurance companies and fund managers are dumping Italy government bonds, thus forcing the 10-year and 15-year bond rates moving well above  7%. Why did these financial institutions wanted to get out? It's simple. They don't have confidence in the Italian government, and are worried that rating agencies may cut their ratings. Can they take another 50% hair cut again, just like what happened to Greece? Things are getting out of hand now. Even the head of IMF is begging support from China today. And you guys still believe things will work out fine. As I said, we must be prepared for the turbulent times ahead.  

小弟看完 浩氣長存 兄之見解, 對法子的言論有點意見:

(1) 很多人覺得貴。
本人回應 : 以本人投資經驗，群眾很可能是錯的。三萬二千點時，人群一點不覺貴，還找了很上升的原因，直通車等。四五六叔等。

小弟知道很多朋友和同事都在指數二萬中時, 將强積金轉了保本基金, 正因為三萬左右, 大家都覺得天方夜譚, 市盈率全創新高, 小市民的我們又怎能盲着眼說不貴呢, 唯獨是抄家和大户在起風雲, 有幾可小市民能在虎口偷金呢?

(2)很多人也怕貴不敢買樓。
本人回應 : 如你提到的女sales，明明是有須要，也不買住。我也認識一個，婚期也等了很耐，還未結呢。太多這類人了，購買力也壓抑了很耐。但這明明是利好因素呢。一旦氣氛好轉，要追貨。

不是去街市買菜呀哥哥仔, 買樓從來都是人生的一大决擇. 慎重些也不太過, 眼中很多人在94, 95, 96 甚致97追貨, 下場怎樣大家心照, 更何況上樓供會都隨時30年, 等2~3年又如何!時機或許正正比你能在沙士價買到呢? 世事無常!!!!!!!!!!

(3)”你估成日有人租你層樓?”
本人回應 : 依家d樓俞來俞好租。真的。租客也主動提出加價續租。昨天政府公布，樓價下調了幾個百份點，但租金剛好相反，慢慢慢慢咁自然上升。租金不同樓價，不會造假。

基本上是勁錯思維, 小弟都是一個小業主, 也有一個小單位出租, 樓價升則租金升, 價降則反之, 在近10年也是如此, 除了今年, 但今年也是一個古怪年, 竟然有H+0.7%的樓按, 才令到業主持貨力强而寧租也不平賣, 但任何遠離市場學的事情, 最終也會回歸正常的.

希望法子兄慎重慎重, 也為浩氣長存加油. 繼續不平則鳴也!

Let me share with you guys what I did over the past few years:

2007 year-end. Trimmed my MPF equity exposure to only 15%, thus avoiding the impact following the collapse of the global markets.

2008 October. Raised my MPF equity exposure to 70%, thus benefiting substantailly from the rally in the stock market towards the end of 2008 and throughout 2009.

2010 Adjusted my equity exposure to about 50% for the year.

2011 Beginning of the year - Cut my equity exposure to only 10%. Most of holdings are in bonds and fixed income funds. Up till now, my over portfolio (MPF) is down only 5%. In April, I sold one of flats and paid all my mortgage loan for another flat. ( I have one flat in Mainland China, two in HK, one in Vancouver and one in the US.)

2011 June - I put 10% of my assets into Gold bulliion and Gold ETF.

My plan for 2012: Wait till the collapse of the stock market. Will then increase my MPF equity exposure back to about 50% level, most likely in the 2H of 2012. Wait till the sharp decline of property prices, about 30%, then pick up a flat for investment purpose.  

In the early part of the year, I quit my full-time job, and now part-time teching finance courses at three universities.

The reasons why I share all these with you guys are as below:

1. Have read all your comments recently and found most of you don't have a sense of the market direction (stock market and property market);

2. Don't have a global view. Just know only a little part of HK;

3. Top government officials will not dare to give you any warnings about the real economic picture. 

4. To show-off my 'knowlege'. And tell you guys I am well ahead of you.

Well tell you the truth. "I am now in my 60th year, fame would do me no good. I have more income than I can spend for my needs; therefore, my only object in writing this is to give others the most valuable gift possible - KNOWLEDGE! If a few find the way to make safer investments my object wll have been accomplished and satisfied readers will be my reward."

To: (11)

請人間正道兄先別反感或反應過大. 你可先理解清楚別人之觀點 , 才回應呢 . 尤其第二點 . 我不是叫人輕率買樓 , 而是指市場上已accumulate了很多須求 , 最後也會發放出來.

你只節錄了我部分的文章. 也讓我在此節錄其餘部分(我覺得對這網站是更重要的. 就是"絕無對抗之意，只想以文會友")

To: (59) 浩氣長存兄

多謝你的文章。

錯字沒問題，本人今日也誤把”梁家傑”打成”劉家傑” 。

總結你說的因素如下 : (本人也想討論一下，但絕無對抗之意，只想以文會友。)

To: 人間正道

都好多謝你的意見 .

Every Month 都有很多成交 . 這代表了同時有很多人看好 , 也同時有很多人看淡.

我出道以來 , 也輸過很多次, 很多錢. 也贏了很多次, 很多錢 (多少是相對的) 一直認同的是 :

自由市場

自由意志

自由決定

自付盈虧

大家也保重

AT兄原來是大學教授, 真是失敬失敬.

碰巧我也認識一位前港大教授, 今年也是61歳, 也是PhD, 絕頂聰明, 也賺夠了兩輩子也花不完的錢. 他的見解恰好相反, 他認為壞消息已在2011年都反映了出來, 2012年會是一番新景象. 既然見解不一樣, 那就由時間證明對錯吧.

AT:

既然,清楚看見2012經濟,為什麼不出售其餘物業,?

湯博士的確指出了唯一有機會令樓價於短期內大跌三成的理由，惟此情況在大陸發生不奇，在香港則無此現象。本港的發展商亦非迫不得已地陷入財困境地，略減些少呎價已經讓新盤賣得滿堂紅，何需劈價賣樓？

一言蔽之：本港樓市無大跌，一國兩制有其功；中港樓市存差異，不能一概而推論。

 A70s

Glad you ask me. You see, diversification is the key in smart investments.  Remember the 4-3-2-1- rule (US) and 6-2-1-1- rule (HK). Just don't put everything in one basket. Even in my property portfolio, they are scattered in different places, and countries. I learned this from the hard way, back in the 80's. Just imagine, if you put everything in one currency, in one bank, something unexpected could happen. And you might lose a shirt. It is therefore wise to have your holdings diversified.

AT兄

你的6-2-1-1法中的6 應是指房地產吧, 然則這個資產配置和我們一眾業主又有何別呢? 當然你比較富有可以在世界各地置業, 但我相信這裏的讀者較難達到世界各地都有置業分散風險. 有何方法令小投資者/小業主有效避險 ?

80後銀行從業員，我支持你。

小弟厂佬一名，不太懂经济，但列出一大堆往绩，不能就可以说未来的预测也对哦。

说得好，就由時間證明谁对

There are some really good analyses here, regardless the direction of the predictions.  Fundamental factors and statistics are of course important when forecasting, but one equally crucial element is often missing here, which is the difference in the human values of the past days and nowadays.

It is getting more evident that the tolerance level of financial hardship of people nowadays are lower than that of the past old days.  Together with the “cleverer modern minds”, situation will only get even more complicated and more and more money will be supplied.  But while there are crises, I can also see opportunities.  The reason is very simple:

1. I do not know how the Euro is going to solve its problem.  Personally I do not see any way out.  The current reserve of the Euro system will be used up in less than 6 months (or even shorter) if it continues to buy Italy’s bonds.  The US is also short of money.  Short-term speaking, the financial market will not look good.

2. The poor economic condition of the Euro and the States will make it impossible for the interest rate to rise.  In the meantime, such poor condition will, I believe, lead these countries to further magnify the monetary supply to the systems, QE or OT, whatever they called.        

3. Turmoil will cause stock market to fall.  But the so-called solutions will bring the stock market back up very rapidly.  The increase in money supply will cause the prices of all daily and commodity items to remain at a high level.  However, because the situation is really terrible, I am not optimistic about the coming economic growth, despite more money has been flooded into the market.  Result... probably stagflation.

4. The low interest rate environment in Hong Kong is very likely to continue for quite a period of time.  Rent will not be dropping by much.  This without doubt, benefits the property owners;  of course job security has to be put in the calculation, and this really varies among individuals.  

5. Long-term speaking, the attitude of unwilling to work harder, save more, and enjoy less, together with all the twisted financial operations, it could be a big, terrible burst, but I don’t think this will come in one or two years.

There are a lot of different statistics, but too complicated analysis may not be good, and not necessary.  I would like to quote the phrase from Fancl: “Less is more!”

To 10樓 AT兄,

Thanks for your comments.

We are talking about the future of the property market in HK, and you can see that most of the comments coming out was a non-negative position  and positive in the long term. Yet people here are in fact trying to find out negative factors, and try to see how real it is in practical term. It is this reason that people here would like to see the grounds offered by 浩氣長存。Though a few here using words a bit harsh, many are in fact doing the observation and have respects irrespective they accept his grounds or not. The reason is simple, we just want to find out some points we missed out from our expectations and we can discuss. Some knowledged and so generous offering their views to us and we thank them for this. Here I would like to enquire a few questions, and hopefully expecting you can give some comments.

"Prices are still dictated by demand and supply."

I believe this golden rule is always true. Dr. Tong is suggesting if all the developers did the same lowering of the price, then the market will drop by 30%. This is going to be a shift of the supply curve.Your comment solidified that it is not "if". You say this will happen in 2012, and we thank for your signal of the warning. But the question is,  on what ground you think that (a) the developers would lower their prices by 30% and how to justify for this.(b) why their lowering of price of 1st hand property (said to be deluxe or semi-deluxe) which has only weak or no comparatives would lead to a drop of 30% to the 2nd hand market? Is it possible to quantify for it (I mean in a simple form that we can understand!) (c) As prices are dictated by demand and supply, the above only counted for shifting of one factor. Is it possible to tell us what others factors(I mean main factors) are also being shifted and their impacts?

Thank you.

To show-off my 'knowlege'. And tell you guys I am well ahead of you.

I like to know what knowledge you know that we didn't know. I need to show my humility, I didn't know much. However, what you said, for me it is nothing new!

各位早晨，

To: AT

今次真的是一石激起千重浪，今早讀回應，知道您突然要離開這網站，深表遺憾。這個網站有很多精英分子，他們的意見，您的亦是，甚為寶貴，政府亦留意這個網站，希望您再次考慮，我們大家都歡迎您。

對於一些不合聽的說話，忘記它吧，請閱回應，有人肥豬肥豬這樣叫我，又不准我刪除，我亦要面對，世事如此，保重 。

To: DT,

No need to care about the "show-off" issue.

I do admire your knowledge and what you replied previously with strong statistic support.

May I ask you a few questions regarding my personal investment.

Currently, i have a "small house" (屋仔) in NT (Accroding to Dr Tong's 3 houses theory, trust this one can be identified as middle one). If I have some cash on hand and would like to invest one more flat, what size of flats should i invest, eg large or small? when will be the good time to invest?

There is no absolute right or wrong, just want to "listen" your professional suggestion.

Thx in advance

To : 抗通脹

I am an ordinary person only.

Property like money is a by-product of your career. Develop your career and you will want what you want. However, the most important things to do are:

Make your family happy you will feel happiness.

Make people success you will be more successful.

Do you think living in a sweet home is good enough?

All the best!

小弟覺得真理並不是越辯越明，因每個人都有一定主觀性及價值觀有不同，他的分析能力可以受以下影響:

1.      出生家庭背景

2.      學歷

3.      年齡

4.      朋友

5.      工作經驗

6.      投資經驗

7.      宗教背景

8.      財富

9.      分析能力

10.  利益關係

等等…………………………….

每個人都希望得到別人的認同，所以為甚麼facebook這麼流行，但通常很少人會改變自己的看法及立場，大多只會支持同自己立場相近的人和事。

小弟認為所有分析都只能作為参考，無嘢係絕對的，世事千變萬化，正如股票市場一樣，為甚麼可以一時起一時跌，馬後砲的分析員就多，就是每日都有新的事情發生，絕對係無EMH，唯一真理是『時間可証明一切』。

我在上海居住超过15年，最近来港，也有过几次买卖上海房地产的经历，希望贡献一点对内地房地产的认识共大家分享。

1、上海宣传跌30%的房子都在外环以外，本来就支持有限，价格虚高，调正很正常。内环甚至是中环的房子根本就没跌，我在内环的房子甚至还有微涨。另外好的品牌的房子比如仁恒，即使在外高桥卖4万一平方米，还有大把就业主排队。

2、国内舆论宣传本来就需要配合政府口径，否则发不出声，所以经常与实际有所出入，不可不信，也不可全信。

3、九月底我在深圳福田区彩田路的中介问价，2005年的楼都要7万一平方米，500多万人民币只能买七八十平方米的。而大家想想1997年的深圳房价只有多少。根据新的征地政策，以后拆迁要市场价补偿，大城市的黄金地段多无待开发的土地，如拆旧楼造新楼，只有通过共产才可能比现在更便宜。

4、1997年港币对人民币应该超过1.06，而现在差不多八折。97年的香港楼价对内地是天价，但现在看就好平常。

5、配套质素都不讲，内地的租售比现在比香港低很多。深圳三四百万房子月租只有3500，上海五百万的房子月租大概7000，还有空置的问题。

1997年的楼价只具有参考意义，14年过去了，情况都好不同。不动产受地域因素影响大，连股市都受中国经济影响，更何况楼市。一定要套用97的情况，未免刻舟求剑。

浩氣長存----我都讚成理性討論，以下係我一啲睇法：-      
           
09年樓價由 60 多點上到今年  6 月最高近 100 點，大約 5 成幾升幅，     
化翻做現實個案，即係 200 萬嘅樓上到 300 萬左右，嘩！食左人隻車咩？簡直傻嘅人先去買！！  
咪住先，睇埋其他嘢先講，係 09 年之前，你問嗰啲唔係做會計、財務、銀行或做生意嘅人，  
知唔知乜嘢係同業拆息？乜嘢係隔夜錢、一個月、三個月同業拆息---？同業拆息隔夜同一個月係幾多厘？ 
我可以寫包單，可以一次過、無提示之下，連對三條，拒係天才人仕，要重點提拔！   
           
係當時大部份人買樓做按揭，都係揀 P 按，實際供樓利息 3 厘左右！     
當你在 09 年前買層 200 萬嘅樓，做 25 年 7 成 P 按 3 厘計，你要每月供 6,640 大元，利息要佔供款一半以上！ 
           
但當你在 11 年頭買樓，同一單位會變成 300 萬，點解呢？因為係人都知乜嘢係同業拆息囉！  
同一層樓都係做 25 年 7 成，今次係 H 按只計 1 厘息，你要每月供 8 千但有找，而利息只係千多元！  
你可以話首期同使費多左幾拾皮，每月又供多 2 成，但我只能答你呢樣嘢就係自由市場經濟囉！  
           
而果幾拾皮仲可以買按揭保險班翻來，每月實際供款只係俾低位買樓嗰位幸運兒多 2千幾 (36%)，啲樓升成咁就係咁解！

常言道: 落葉知秋也.

小弟本身都是一個業主仔, 但我都對樓價在這兩年急升存在着極大担心, 很有一點日本在80年代的經濟大泡沫, 爆破後都現在也回復不了. 所以平穩才是上策.

今天康怡花園呎價8000元多, 最小單位582呎, 即465萬.

若升30％-----465x1.3=600萬

首期4成(安全和可出租) = 240萬

雜費 = 20萬

合共買樓要付260萬(那裏找到呀)

新造按息2.5% (平均數), 供期20年(太長危險性極高, 可能要三代齊供)

首年供款約25.5萬, 每月近2萬1千元左右

若利息加1% 每月供款加HK$2,800

若利息達5%每月連本金3萬元了.

經濟順境時, 供款問題不太.

但經濟逆境時, (外國經濟危機, 香港本土經濟發展, 大陸的緊縮政策等等), 死神就來了.

小小愚見, 希望幫到大家

To: 38樓. 人間正道

同意!

所以最重要的是保留一些資金, 不要太勇, 隔離火燭, 唔通重要計逐開 Party. 政府良性干預是可接受的。

現在，只有所有地產商聯合一致，將物業價值減3成促銷，此舉動的確會令樓市下挫。

Hong Kong Property is the Landlord's market, not tenant's market.

How can the Landlord abate the price? Take this typical example in office lease.

The rent is $100 per sqft. for 3 years.  The landlord offers the tenant 3 months rent free (or free parking lot). The effective rent will be $91.7 per sqft. ($100x36 -$100x3)/36.

Likewise, the Landlord can also offer the tenants in the primary market. In fact, the Landlord discount the property price currently. This discount includes kitchen facilities, lighting, stamp duty and 3-5% discount for pay in advance mortgage etc. If you compare the flat price between the primary market and secondary market, the price is at par. It means the price in the primary market is discounted.

Not 30% much, 10-15% in average.

What do you think?

 多謝無明兄的支持和鼓勵!

大家都是將心內想說的說出來, 世事從沒有絕對錯的事.

誠然, 政府實在己經很刻制地推出房屋政策, 如小弟想將樓價降30％, 其實容易得很:

a) 將市區重建局closed, 令太舊的樓少了重建價值而從新回歸正常市場的低格價.

b) 將市區重建局的資源投放在新界區直接起樓, 效率高而成本平.

c) 取消SSD, 令市場的樓盤忽然增加.

d) 政府按市場的堆盤量而定居屋每年編配量, 譬如每年合共5萬個單位, 令市場供應明確和清楚.

這樣, 供應量的主度權又回歸政府, 樓價又如何能再起風雲呢?

46 樓---如果係我嘅話，睇倒心儀單位，就大胆還價 1 成，博執死雞！  
        
最好時間係等香港同外圍股票市場跌到一塌糊塗果日先還價，可以低一成都唔止！！！

I presume you pay less than 35% for mortgage loan and reserve 10% cash at hand.

Place a bid lower than 10% to the agency and prepare a cheque for 3% deposit to show your heart.

And be patient and decisive no matter the HK stock hit 12,000 or not.

If it is yours, it is yours.

Congratulations!

No house doesn't mean no sweet home.

各位，

今天沒有文章，明天會有兩篇。

(1)   星期六故事﹕OEM來料加工廠

(2)   甚麼是似是而非？甚麼是似非而是？

My Home My Castle!

以前的人結婚產子和事業穩定之後，才會置業，現時的年輕人一早便嚷著要置業，想要有私人空間，是不是新生代是宅男世代？

To:46樓. 求學者

首先恭喜你!

(1) 每個人買股票都希望買完第二日便上升, 買樓都是一樣, 很正常。 但實際上有幾多人可以做到? 做到的人又有幾多是真的是技術高超而做到, 抑或其實是撞彩。如果真的是技術高超, 股市就不用時常雞毛鴨血啦。

(2) 雖然報紙, 電視, 學者, 投資大行意見紛紛, 其實講對的一成都不夠。中原城市指數由2009年開始一直上升, 代表什麼呢? 政府出招後, 特別是趕出炒樓客後, 現在於指數100左右企定, 徘徊, 上落 (無論用什麼字眼), 都是反映市場價格, 亦其實反映該些買樓的人對樓市Future的看法及買樓需要, 亦同時反映賣樓的人的看法或賣樓需要, 這指數就在這位置一段時間了。 祺望樓市再跌一些? 樓市有時在年頭會出現上升, 資深樓市分析員陸x球好像預計會有個小陽春。

(3) 市場上並不是只得你一個買家, 好的單位, 如果以一個長線投資角度, 往往都是可遇而不可求。既然已經決定要買, 要考慮的是該合適的單位如果無咗, 你另一半會有多少失落。

買樓的決定是不容易, 因為這金額很大!

但我覺得如果將每個月供款看成租金, 那便心理平衡一些, 不會因價格上落而影響心情!

祝你生活愉快! :)

中原：經濟技術性衰退 樓價調整擴大

中原地產指出，本地樓價調整幅度擴大。中原城市領先指數CCL連跌五周，累跌2.9%，是2008年8月24日至2008年11月30日期間連跌15周後，近3年以來最長的連跌。CCL按週跌1.04%，是17週以來最大跌幅。CCL最新報96.91點，為30週新低。大型屋苑方面，中原城市大型屋苑領先指數CCL Mass最新報94.11點，按週跌0.80%，是5周內第4度下跌。最新CCL Mass，亦為30周新低。

分區大型屋苑指數方面，4區指數全部下跌。港島區指數報105.98點，是25周新低，連跌5周，累跌4.30%。九龍區指數報93.76點，㛃週跌0.98%。新界東指數報91.79點，是7肚周新低%。新界西指數報76.97點，是8週新低。

小弟最近想買一個單位收租, 想請大家幫幫手:

買大單位(~500萬) 定細單位好(~200萬)呢?

大單位就要做6成樓按, 細單位可以一筆過, 究竟怎選擇呢?

恭喜你，诚哥话斋，买楼自住，有买贵，不会买错。像前面的大哥说，计好自己条数就好了。

To : 46. 求學者

小弟由上年政府推出SSD打擊樓價開始找樓，當時都有很多人話樓價會跌，但结果大家都知啦，最终在今年7月置業(4成首期, 預留在1年的供款) ，只要你有需要而不是投資，而又做好風險管理，不需要考慮大多，因如果樓價下跌緊，心理上會想跌多一些才買，但如果樓價回升，你又會覺得之前無買好唔抵，最後一事無成，始終同你所愛有自己的安樂窩是件快樂的事。

TO:正道兄

我覺得買兩間200萬各付100首期

收租較多,厘印較少,靈活度亦大

求學者兄:

恭喜恭喜!! 各位高手已有高見, 小弟不再贅述. 閣下可先觀望一下, 一來等有冇"劈價盤"出現, 二來等明年銀行開始減息時才行動.

80後銀行從業員:

明天會減息????

各位，剛剛是我第一次在這裡問各位經濟學高人。獲益匪淺！ 實情是我是一個喜歡ROCK N ROLL 音樂的反大財團主義者，由於快將結婚和置業，每天也在一邊抽大麻，一邊看財經新聞，在一般人眼中，我應是屋企有點錢，賺錢買花載的人。但我更會把自己定為 “ 優皮仕 “ 其實我更希望各位更多享受生活 ， 放棄只懂追求金錢的心！ 但今次留言後，我發覺無們就最多就是恭喜，多謝多謝，我也很快樂 ！ 我不是在SHOW OFF 自己的家，我知道我已是很幸褔的一位，多謝！ 再次感謝！ 送首歌比大家  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkhX5W7JoWI ！

80後銀行從業員:

明年會減息????