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【明報專訊】不少人投資股市或物業，往往是贏粒糖，輸間廠，總之是輸多贏少，原因為何？筆者最近到內地中山國父孫中山故居遊覽，看到在博物館掛一幅刻上孫中山曾說過的一段說話的木刻，當中意思，似乎提供了答案。

該幅木刻寫首：「世界潮流，浩浩蕩蕩，順之者昌，逆之者亡」。就是這樣，投資成功或失敗，關鍵就在於是否能找到大勢所趨，然後「順之」，而非不斷的逆市操作，希望可以不停的摸頂撈底。

上星期本欄曾引述已故德國股神科斯托蘭尼（Andre' Kostolany）年輕時學車，只懂盯着方向盤，被汽車教練揶揄他永遠也不會學懂開車，正確應看着前方面300米，令科氏終有所悟，不單學懂開車，更將道理應用在投資，最終成為了一代股神。

目光要遠大 操作要保守

又如香港的恒基（0012）主席李兆基，早在1976年已預言香港因地少人多，加上經濟成長，地產業必有美好前景，遂瞓身投入，終成千億巨富。

那現時的世界潮流為何？香港首富李嘉誠近一年來便不斷強調，雖然歐債危機和美國經濟仍不明朗，需要「步步為營」，然而低息環境持續，美國不斷印銀紙必令通脹惡化，買樓自住不會錯，但供款要保守。

早前本報曾邀請紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮作為樓市研討會的演講嘉賓，而昨日是他的60歲生日，回顧他30多年的投資物業經驗，紀惠集團如何能累積市值達200億元的物業資產，他總結其成功之道：「有智慧不如趁勢，趁勢不如量力而為」。

記着，要順勢，也要量力而為

雲兄，

多謝祝賀。

正因為年紀大，在地產行業亦頗有收穫，故此，將自己的知識及所見所聞，放在網上，希望大家作為參考。

但是想不到反應相當好，回應的水準相當高，瀏覽人次亦非常高，最後得著的原來是自己，多謝大家。

那些计划经济的左倾政党和废青，又点会知道炒家的出现令到交易成本下跌，买卖更有效率。

没有炒家，肯定没有期货市场和股票市场。

「投資者係樓市下跌時就算損手都會離場」，講緊跌市既情況，間樓貶值既速度可以非常驚人，重有咩需要解釋？

同埋呢個係雞先定蛋先既問題, 如果冇人肯放, 就唔會有大跌既情況, 如果冇大跌, d人又點會恐慌拋售呢...

It is very difficult to define the speculators and investors in the real market..

But something are certain, we have faced a very low or negative interests in banks, and fears because of nonstop making a huge amout of electronic money, which are just numbers, around the world.  So many Mr. Markets have continuously selling us a lot of financial products from A to Z, or various Indexes. More, the borrowers keep selling us Imginations/Hopes, peaks, bottoms, ratings, fears & numbers,  and the lenders keep buying their Dreams !  As a whole, we can NOT touch these ! ! !

On the other side, the bad inflation due to the poor exchange rates of our dollar, negative interest rates, the houses can really give us accommodations and rents in which we can perform our physical checks.  Gold prices are showing us around $1800 USD per oz which can compare with $35 USD per oz ; and Crude Oil prices are indicating about $85 USD per barrel against $10 ~ $20 USD in the past days ; Uranium for our power stations for supporting the enconomic developments in future, again, prices shown are still rising ; and the Foods prices go up ! It is very difficult to beat with many High Speed Computers !

It is very difficult to define the speculators and investors in the real market..

But something are certain, we have faced a very low or negative interests in banks, and fears because of nonstop making a huge amout of electronic money, which are just numbers, around the world.  So many Mr. Markets have continuously selling us a lot of financial products from A to Z, or various Indexes. More, the borrowers keep selling us Imginations/Hopes, peaks, bottoms, ratings, fears & numbers,  and the lenders keep buying their Dreams !  As a whole, we can NOT touch these ! ! !

On the other side, the bad inflation due to the poor exchange rates of our dollar, negative interest rates, the houses can really give us accommodations and rents in which we can perform our physical checks.  Gold prices are showing us around $1800 USD per oz which can compare with $35 USD per oz ; and Crude Oil prices are indicating about $85 USD per barrel against $10 ~ $20 USD in the past days ; Uranium for our power stations for supporting the enconomic developments in future, again, prices shown are still rising ; and the Foods prices go up ! It is very difficult to beat with many High Speed Computers !

Alternatively speaking from Mr Approx., we can park our money in our  central banks which have legal rights to continuously issue paper money !

今天樓市偏貴反映多個因素, 例如供應少,息口低, 貨幣貶值等.....並非單純是炒家炒上的, 當然從SSD去年11月實施後樓市不跌反映出來.樓上的朋友說得不錯, 銀行批樓按的確比以前審慎得多, 所以整體按揭風險屬可控.

不過一個簡單不過的道理各位淡友們一直搞不懂. 最近期的金融海嘯及SARS, 樓價不錯是急跌, 但伴隨著的是經濟衰退, 通縮, 減薪裁員,還有息口未必低.

各位淡友們除非認為你們不買樓的同時, 你們的資產能在經濟衰退時還能升值(或者至少保值), 而工作又十分稳定, 還要有過人的膽識和遠見才寄望樓市跌三成執平貨吧!

Hong Kong Property in 2011 - Where to go?

I summarize some prominent person's saying plus my interpretation in next sentence as below. Please correct me if I quote their sayings not precisely.

Mr. Chan (陈增涛) - bid the price at discount 20-30% , short term bearish long term bullish

Mr. Walter So - 10-15% correction will be likely as the global macro risks are on the rise and the perceived policy risks has increased, correction in bullish trend.

CBRE - 10% correction in luxury property market, correction in bullish trend.

Mr. Shum (沈振盈) - 15% down after 15% fall, turn trend and very bearish 

Mr. Sze (施永青) - small correction and resume the upward trend

Mr. Li Ka Shing - No problem to buy a flat for living, bullish

Uncle 4 - No boom in luxury market as used to be, bullish

Dr. Tong (湯文亮) - small correction, bullish

Miss. Sze (施慧雅) - 15% correction, long term bullish

The market never tells lie. What did the market say in the past few months?

No free fall as stock market.

The luxury property price in Hong Kong island is greater than the kowloon and NT area.

No more than 15% discount in the market.

Many end users and investors bid the market.

Transaction and volume is moderate and slowly recovery.

What did the property stock say in the past few months?

HSI holds at 19,000.  General speaking, property stocks reduced 20%.

In the last few months, the sentiment of stock and property market turned bullish to bearish. Stepping in the month of September, please take note of the sentiment and the heavy property stock in the primary market.

Like Buffett, he has the good timing to buy the right price of stock.

All the best!

其實只要跟住誠哥做野實冇錯, 長江(仲有新地)今年狂吸地, 雖然政府要增加供應, 但亦只係公佈下一個季度賣地, 所以如果市況真是太弱的話政府隨時賣少d免得推冧個市 只要避開供應重災區便可減少風險

to 27楼： 我都希望可以调整10%啦，到时就可以在买多一间。

当然，废青会继续等，继续叫地产霸权。最重要的是继续交租。

樓市上亦好，跌亦好，市場自有機制調整。簡單地說，就是多人看好時升，眾人看跌時跌。6年一短周，12年一大周。但長遠仍是向上。只要是自住的，或是收租足以供樓的，樓價回調跌10-15%又如何? 假設租金不跌或上升，樓價跌豈不等於回報率更大。我的做法是，蓄夠4成首期，又可以再下一城，有租客幫忙供樓，還有銀落袋真是千載難逢的好時機。用15年來供，供得4--5年，已經供走一大截欠款。真是其樂無比，只可惜現在借銀行錢真是很艱難，很很難!!!

買樓夢難圓，唯有守住手上已有的物業。因為一不小心賣出去，真是恨錯難返。很難買回來。

小小心得，是鄙人真實經歷，供各位參考。

補充:

97年時我層樓供16000，租收6000，補貼10000。

現在我層樓供7000，租收11500。

這就是道理。

有樓在手的市民當然是不希望樓價下挫，但希望樓價下跌而上車的市民，他們的想法是錯誤的，例如下跌10%便會有一批市民上車，20%便會有另一批市民上車，當這些市民上了車，他們還想樓價下挫嗎？

又如果希望樓價下跌而上車的市民，見到樓價每年都下跌，他們夠膽入市嗎？他們擔不擔心，當他們上了車之後，樓價繼續每年都在下跌嗎？

我相信，到時他們一樣不想樓價下跌。

你們的討論,令我想起我和朋友討論,討論內容是升市買樓好?還是跌市買樓好?模頂難,還是模底難

Some property owners/investors who have sold out all their houses in the recent years, they have to accept moving the higher rents in certain region, such as hongkong island,  to the lower rents districts next to Lo Wu/ Lok Ma Chau, or changing the rentals from large flats to smaller flats for nil effects on the rising rents,  depending on the personal situations.

For those property owners/investors who have underweighted their real estates in the similar period, they must renew/ review the rental contracts in order to avoid losses from the rising inflation and from the vibrating securities market.

As the local residents are waiting for the coming political decisions, it could be mistakes due to political risks, the existing owners/investors can not change their plans from smaller flats to larger ones; the newcomers do not want to enter the housing market because of the possible traps that can be made by the government officials.

Hong Kong Property 2011 is very dependent on Location as usual, Home Prices to Earnings Ratio, Interest Rates/HIBOR, current Exchange Rates and purposes.

To all,

To make it short, if someone has ever made $$ in the properties market, he'll have some understanding of the trend in general & know how the low interest really benefit us "small potato" landlords, what u guys say are true b'coz u have your own apartments & you're making $$.  There's no need to argue, we can smell whether"you" have apartments or not!

Of course, it's always likely that property prices will fall & correct.  But what we discuss here is major correction like a dump of 60-70% maybe??? just like SARS???  Lots of people are still dreaming of that to happen so they can have a chance to buy.  The funny thing is:agree with all of you, if it ever happens, the general atmosphere will be very sad & people do not feel good to buy.

We experienced SARS also, remember our Tai Hang apartment dropped from 9.5M(97) to 3.5M(03 SARS) very sad & we made it through(not to sell, why would we???)  After re-development project, current price is 17M.  Thank you very much!

似乎能被稱作社會模範既人越來越多

以前成日聽人講咩"悶聲發大財"，
"肥水不流別人田"，"無咁大隻蛤乸隨街跳"
時代不同了，今時今日
有一班相信樓市中長期必升既人
不但沒有叫人賣樓比佢地，或者叫人唔好買
仲苦口婆心日日鼓勵人地同佢地一齊賺錢
仲緊張過你老豆，怕你蝕底多過自己走寶
又怕你被人影響，主動反駁一D可能對大家無益既言論

佢地令我想起傳媒中既一D財金人士
佢地仲偉大，叫你入自己唔方便持有既野
啱啱升果陣怕升勢不穩，唔敢講你知
升幅可觀後，佢地相信已勢不可擋
明醒你搭繁榮號順風車

見到別人發財立品
怕星斗市民不能與他們共享財富之樂趣
呢D情操我真係學唔到
大家係咪好感動呢

楼上，我就不知道到时班废材肯唔肯减福利。

交物業稅,利得稅...稅的是强者,是取之社会用之社会,是善行,是責任.

有精人瞞稅,逃稅,巧取社会福利,視我等笨人.

Remember one day the government officials will force you to sell all the assets that is Hong Kong Property in 2011...

世界經濟處於滯漲，而非衰退！也就是各國政府通過製造大量貨幣來避免通縮，以致資金泛濫，某些優質資產就受到追捧，港樓為其中之一。

要打破港樓價大漲小回的格局，只有政府大量增加供應一途。

不要以為目前樓價與97年時一樣貴，97時的港幣購買力遠高於現在，圖表的座標不同了。

目前的樓市，絕對不像是牛三的瘋狂期。

若歐美的經濟進一步崩潰，我相信他們會想盡一切辦法嚴防通縮，到時資金將進一步泛濫，他們情願貨幣大幅貶值，也不願意見到資產價格下跌，香港有聯繫匯率制度，港幣也將跟著美元大幅貶值。就算沒有聯繫匯率制度，美元的貶值也會對所有貨幣造成跟隨貶值的巨大壓力，任何貨幣最終都難以獨善其身。

從美國QE1開始，用貨幣來衡量價值已經不合時宜！

誠實的貨幣都是天造的，人造的貨幣是會騙人的！

49楼，政府会吾会force你sell all the assets that is Hong Kong Property in 2011，我倾向吾相信咯。危言耸听啦，但是饭民共产党正在共100几十万小业主产。

大亚湾核电厂，当然有风险，而事实上日本一个40年前的核电厂，就是出事了，最终还是可以控制下来。大亚湾核电厂，更加新，工程质量肯定提高了不小，在加上香港无地震和海啸。当然相信很多人会假设明天会出现比日本的核事故更严重，但是根据以往的经验，当事故发生的时候，独裁国家如大陆的应变能力肯定比日本佬好。这次自卫队竟然会有逃亡的现象。

当中国和印度崛起之后，石油消耗肯定加快很多。以前得美国鬼同西方国家消耗，现在加上中国和印度。不发展核电，点生存。

Dear All - Read an article recently which sumed up the positive factors in HK quite well.  Sharing the extract below:

過客------好多謝你咁讚我，係呢度我都多謝翻呢個平臺俾我吹吓水，由其係湯博士可以日日寫文章過料俾大家，係好多人黎講，買樓係一生人最大投資，兼聽則明真係硬道理。

王先生: 可以解釋下點解梁振英才能幫到你嗎?我最怕振英當特首。我知他恨到出汁。

「當然如果只係想人有我有，唔肯付出、又唔自量、又想一步登天住市區私樓，咁就真係CY做特首先幫到你。」

CY仲話,有需要可以踩平米埔,南生圍,元朗平原..

唔知D香紳會唔會放過佢呢

Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant is very good design from French and other worldwide professionals who are qualified, trained and experienced in the research, development, planning, design, operation and maintenance management. It is safe and has been operating since 1990s. It's design is different from the old ones of GE shown in NHK in Japan 3/11.

Give you some examples, two primary schoolmates who have been living there next to the CBD/ Lo Wu in Shenzhen since 1990/91, for their families and small businesses. They do keep their properties along the railway from the CBD/Lo Wu, Sheung Shui, Fanling, Shantin, Tai Wai down to one flat in Kowloon. They do keep these for the rents and for the next generations and taxes to hongkong. Both the primary schoolmates were graduated at the ground floors of the 7-level blocks of the public housing and finished their Hons degrees & higher degrees in their own money !!!

The assests may include the tangible and intangible ones, depending on the personal situations and purposes.

For investing/business, the decisions of the political leaders/executives in the universe are very important. e.g. Elections in Germany in October, Monetary and Fiscal Polices in September and Elections in America in 2012, Economic Policy in HK October,etc.               For the past records, we can refer back to the cases happened to the U.S., HK and Japan...

Hong Kong Property 2011 is very dependent on Location as usual, Home Prices to Earnings Ratio, Interest Rates/HIBOR, current Exchange Rates and purposes.

For our plans, we do keep our properties in HK...

買房子的目的是賺錢, 不可能虧本出售, 我寧願燒了房子再上吊, 不賺錢不不賣.

With the same information and figures shown , some people are optimistic and others are often pessimistic. If you further give latest sales increase over 20% from our statistics department, they don't care about where is TST's Canton Road/Jordan's Road, Nathan Road or Causeway Bay, etc., and keep saying the numbers are not significant to our society !!! If there is rising inflation, they say it is due to us !!!

Maybe, it involves the personal characters, interests, individual minds and habits ...