5窮6絕7翻身Stock Market + 港股蓄勢升樓市已見頂 ! + Cash (not US$) is King

Many people advise the above wisdom.  And many people believe it. Now many people caught long. Then many people buy the dip. But many people will be buried in the month of August!

US has no other choice! The Santa Claus, QE3 is in town!

The free fall starts in the US stock market. Who buy who die!

沈大師真嗚雅嘴，剛說完港股待升，隨即連跌三日，且一日勁過一日。

不學沒術，失敗之極。請不要亂講。

今早開電視，見聽眾問大師他在專欄說「港股蓄勢升，樓市已見頂」。「……」是甚麼？是「無言以對」。

 

8月2日，一位網友將上述標題放在回應箱內，並引述大師以前的言論，說樓市會15%又15%下跌，最後才急跌。支持大師的網友說我支持樓市是「妖言惑眾」，叫我「慎言」。8月2日恆指下跌241點，8月3日下跌428點，8月4日下跌107點。現在下跌超過900點，不知大師如何解釋？

 

我希望有網友將此回應放在大師的專欄，亦希望大師回應。

 

同時亦勸各位網友，不要利用別人的文章觀點，攻擊其他人，要攻擊，用自己的觀點。

錢鍾書在<<圍城>>中有一句話:  "城外的人想衝進去, 城裡的人想逃出來."

 

 

港股下跌逾千點，沈大師在哪？

認住呢盞燈，猪頭嘜有保證！

在網上能道出自己的觀點的人是既之少之又少，再更要說出有論點更是難難可貴。要吹水的可以虛無浮游亂說一通，這是可以好容易，再要將自己的親身經歷可以分享以生命影響生命的，更是絕無僅有，我可以講說了出來，人們不單不會認為這是有價值的分享，反而會給人任意攻擊，所以湯博士無需為那些不無道術之人而氣衝衝了數天，因為絕對是不值得的。再者我看過那留言，我對那人以引述別人的說話而沒加任何自己的評論觀點，我也感大惑不解？因為這完全是沒道理的說法！

記得最初在網上留言，發覺就算您是真心去寫出您想講的，原來沒人會領情的，反而攻擊再攻擊以此為樂者更是大多數。曾幾何時我也為此勞氣一番，但這只會正中那些想藉此來攻擊您的人的下懷，您越是氣憤，他們越是興奮，要慢慢學習放下，併不是易事，正如人生有很多事情也不是我們能所控制。我只能夠說現今的文化大氣候教育實在是不濟，攻擊已經變成將自己的開心建築於他人痛苦的身上。

那個沈大師因為曾試過負資產，從此看待事情也是負面極點。記得我的故事者，也知我也曾遇上負資產，辛苦供了在自住樓上的170萬資金全部不翼而飛，賣樓還要抱錢上銀行呢！但，我沒因此而變得認為看待樓市要用極度負面去看，我反而會從中去好好學習與檢討自己是否當中有錯的地方，當然表面上可以說您是為了結婚而買樓自住，理應不是您的錯，只是您不幸碰上大市的逆轉。但我反而從中檢討與學習，我不因此而害怕，我反而是認為自己當時太幼稚對樓市認識不深、對環球經濟的不認知、對世界週邊的國家在做什麼政治把戲也不留心，於是檢討後我認為我需每天多加留意新聞與及時事資訊，我開始知道自己想要的是什麼，開始知道負資產不是可怕，最可怕是您去逃避不去接受與及面對檢討自己曾經錯在那兒，反而不斷埋怨是當時的局勢令您而有所損失。這樣不斷沉思於是別人的錯、是世界的錯，那麼這如何能有進步呢！

而沈大師就正正是這類人，他選擇了去逃避，而不是正面去接受與從中學習，若果這個社會多幾個這類的負面評論員跑出來說話的話，相信以我口吻所說的以生命影響生命，相信這個香港遲早實給他們推倒，這完全沒前途可言了。

這數天無意中看到有篇很久之前訪問湯博士文章，談及最少要有三層物業，當中也說到三個物業要有不同的面積，可以做到退可守、進可攻；沒想到，我當下的持有就正如湯博士所言的一樣，所想的理念相同，本來最近也有少許煩惱，不過看後立即感到煩惱解決，打了一支強心針，這就是我所說的以生命影響生命，一些有支持性的說話實在是令人感開懷，我十分喜歡看別人的故事，因為可以從中學習他人成功的地方。所以十分多謝湯博士這篇訪問！

今天，入來這兒，本來是因看到新聞紙說昨天李超人的訪問，有所鼓勵80後的年輕人，本來好想寫下以示鼓勵年輕人，不過看到無聊人的一番莫名其妙的說話而傷害了湯博士，促發我說了這麼多說話。

回應ABC
請你不好叫停沈大師，於過去數年，他在我投資路上是一盞可靠的燈，相關系數接近-1！沒有他的導航，投資的信心會少了！沈大師，請繼續發功！

完全同意谷野柳女士的說法， 「曾試過負資產，從此看待事情也是負面極點。」，同樣道理， 曾試過破產，曾試過經營不善結業， 曾試過多次被炒魷的文章作者，寫文章也是負面極點。所以， 容易受影響的人， 閱讀文章時， 在可能的情況下, 盡去查下作者的背景資料。

建議網主將那些看市太負面兼長年累月看錯市的作者文章抽起，免影響讀者04-11年都上唔到車的事情重演。

沈大師多年來只是租樓，未曾置業。96年曾一度心動想置業，後遇金融風暴而擱置。

「一般人以為買樓有舊磚頭，但其實是債。而且做業主負擔重責任大，維修又要夾錢，大廈外牆石屎飛脫傷人又要賠償。相反租樓就輕鬆得多，可以嘗試不同地區、不同屋苑，我曾住過荃灣、元朗、粉嶺、將軍澳、馬鞍山，現在就住黃埔花園，位置方便，交通配套好又望海景，若業主唔迫遷，我相信都會繼續租住落去。」

 (唔知佢有無被人迫遷或加租呢? )

7樓, 攻擊你的, 大部分是那些想邀功的經紀仔, 他們的目的只是為主人的文章增加會應而攻擊別人, 及說一些奉承話,這樣拍拍馬屁, 攻擊人等反反覆覆, 該作者文章回應經常過百, 所以這裡有些作者的文章我是不回應的.  因我看這版也很久了!

湯先生唔知我咁睇正唔正確，這數年我附近畀新地同太古收舊樓嘅價，高到離曬浦，小業主個個都笑住走，照計西半山畀政府劃死得五倍地積比率同有高度限制，發展商要推翻會好似太古同恆基咁打幾年官司，個地盆唔起得多又唔起得高，又要收樓、拆樓、同政府和議員鍊過、起樓、畀利息、冒風險.......去發展新樓，樓市唔升分分鐘做義工，終於今日我睇到太古賣X然才知點解，X然普通樓層賣出去只係可以收回成本，太古賺嘅係發水、地積比率(幾年前畀太古打官司爭到九倍)、多啲高層看到海景嘅單位、新舊樓差價.......但最重要嘅係特式單位！而家豪宅最頂嗰幾層會有咁大整咁大，有咁豪整咁豪，以滿足貴客人無我有心態，叫價係低幾層嘅普通單位幾倍，呢啲先係肉！

Hi all,  Absolutely agree that people should target at least 3 apartments during their lifetime.  I came from sales industry that emphasis alot on sales volume & figures.  My boss always says: if you aim at scoring 100, you'll get 80-100 if you're really good & at least 70 if you're abit bad luck after working hard but never below 60.......

Same theory works for property purchases,  if you aim at getting one & only one self-use apartment, maybe you'll find it so difficult to find one you want: not HK island side>no;no club houses>no;less than 3 bedrooms>no; less than 900 sq feet>no.........so & so.  But if you target at making real investment & make $$ out of your apartments & cut all your fancy expectations,  you can easily target 2-3 apartments in New Territories/anywhere with/without clubhouses, big/small size.....because you aim at renting it out only!  

When your wealth has been accumulated & you can afford to enjoy apartments in wherever you like without thinking,(for example: if you target HKisland side over 1000 sq ft with 3 bedrooms, good location, pls have at least over 15million cash in your pocket & make sure your job is secure enough to pay mortgages, actually in that case over 20millions cash reserve would be better depends on your age & job security)

If it sounds too far from you, why not stop dreaming & complaining & cut all your stupid trips to Maldives & Japan bla bla bla & start working & saving hard!!!

For people who are living in public houses, the present property prices to their incomes are relatively high/expensive.

In view of the rich/high-income families, they have to consider their investments under the influences of zero interests in the U.S., Japan, Europe... Particularly, One HKD is equivalent to 0.8RMB and the mainlanders have a lot of restrictions on purchasing real estates. Money is everywhere. Maybe, one day our local banks will charge us additional fees for deposits in their banks. Watch yesterday news from one bank in New York.

Of course, we are so concerned about the incoming housing policy of HKSAR.

Mr.S., as you know there are not many residents good at securities. Also, Strong Buy is not easy to say. It is time to have a tea break.

For people who are living in public houses, the present property prices to their incomes are relatively high/expensive.

In view of the rich/high-income families, they have to consider their investments under the influences of zero interests in the U.S., Japan, Europe... Particularly, One HKD is equivalent to 0.8RMB and the mainlanders have a lot of restrictions on purchasing real estates. Money is everywhere. Maybe, one day our local banks will charge us additional fees for deposits in their banks. Watch yesterday news from one bank in New York.

Of course, we are so concerned about the incoming housing policy of HKSAR.

Mr.S., as you know there are not many residents good at securities. Also, Strong Buy is not easy to say. It is time to have a tea break.

It is crazy market. The wave is coming!

S&P 1,050

Dow 9,700

HSI 19,000

Buy a flat you still have bricks because bricks are not easy to break!

回9樓:

你說沈大師所言的相關系數是(-1)，是否等於說他每次都是錯的? 是否你語帶相關?語含譏諷?直說無訪。

做反面教材簡直一流。

Just do the opposite of what Mr Shum said/predict will do.I make same too. Thanks Mr Shum.

In response to ABC,
From my observation , in short, mr shum's investment advice may not be accurate but his comments are useful because they are consistent.

樓市係冇乜可能跌，特別係市區豪宅和商廈商舖，低息高通賬、聯匯加上大陸豪客和貪官，價格只會愈來愈貴，手快有手慢冇，香港地炒樓永遠都係最快發達的途徑。

近日路經一些地產公司，發現一個有趣的現象︰某幾家門前的大量價錢牌給一"刪"甚至"再"刪"改價...印象最深的是其中一店，眼見到的價錢牌都給"刪"改了...為甚麼？在該店掛盤的業主們都同意減價？他們以"特惠價"賣了會否後悔？天曉得...

有平錢唔借 = 錯失良機

蘇州過後喇大嬏

這家專門做勢，業主們根本就無減價意思。

To DT, Dow down to 9800. Have you ever buy America stock ? Take some stock investment courses first.  Don't just say something you don't know.

Today morning, your prediction that "HSI will see 19,000", as stated by you in post #17 here, has been validated by the market.

Even having slightly short the index for hedging, I was once highly doubtful about whether your figures are too low to hit within August. Now I admit I'm wrong and would like to recognize you as a gifted genius. Now it's all about the formal debut of QE3 to re-ignite asset prices.

To Small Potate

Your humility makes you great.

If you buy one banana for $1USD in  Tokyo and if you buy one orange for $1USD in HK,

what should we do ?