What makes the prospect of this current property market different from previous bear markets?
We learn that all previous property bull markets always ended with a frenzy of buyers motivated by FOMO(Fear Of Missing Out), many of them were caught with insufficient financing when the market made a turn for the worse: the economy turned sour or the interest rates were jerked up to unexpected level.
However, the current bear market saw a combination of factors happened simultaneously or in series, namely, a once-a-century pandemic, a trade war leading to a decoupling between East and West, a fast and furious rise in interest rate, strong competition across the border on all fronts---from retail to retirement, and last and not least, the year-long black-cladded riot which tore the fabric and unity of our society.
Had such concurrent factors happened in other places, their local property markets would fare worse, much much worse, than Hong Kong's. The resilence of the Hong Kong market could be contributed to the pre-emptive cooling down measures, which deter less qualified buyers, installed by C Y Leung and faithfully followed by his successors, as well as the rich and painful experience "gained" by the local corporations and investors who had gone through multiple economic and political crisis in the past forty years.
Thus so far we have not seen any listed blue-chip, or even for this matter, small to medium property companies got into any financial troubles. True, there is a rumour or two flying around about New World Development's heavy losses leading to doubts about its solvency, but having taking a look to the causes of such losses, one should dispel the gravity of such rumour. After all, with the backing of its rich parent company, it isn't called one of the four local property hegemony for nothing.
If the sell side can weather the worst of the onslaught of all of the above-mentioned factors, I see no reason that the property market could turn for the worse from this moment on. With the impetus of quasi QE-like measures from the People's bank of China et al, and the sharp rise of stock markets on both sides of the borders; the demand side would see a torrent of buyers resurfacing from the hiatus of the past few years.
In addition, the current geo-political factors as well as the "sea-change not seen in hundreds of years" all work in favour for this side of the Earth. The distrust of the fiat currencies and the possibility of a sovereign debt crisis by the developed world means those folks in charge of financial managements are like the passengers on the Titanic, scurrying for lifebelts and lifeboats in the form and substance of asset classes not swallowed by the hostile waters.
And what are such asset classes that the folks know best to weather the storm?
You'll be the judge,
元，但開售均價每呎僅19668元，如連同建築費及利息計算，每呎最少虧損6000元。新地連這個定位為豪宅的啟德海景盤，也急不及待殺價開售，顯示其惜貨限售策略已改。自此以後，月月有樓賣的新地，將於全港各區開售劈價盤，令一手樓市全面淪陷。