At the end of October, the property market is still not improving, with only a small number of low-priced first-hand properties having a good sales record. The second-hand properties’ sales records were not as good as first -hand properties did. Additionally, both of the sales transactions and prices of second-hand properties had decreased significantly. 
Until recently, second-hand properties prices have been falling by 11% year-to-date. By the end of this year, property prices will drop by 3 to 5% more in these two months. Finally, property prices will fall by 15% in total.
On November 5, the United States president election will be held. In the latest election voting poll, Donald Trump has a staunch support to win the presidential election. If everything is expected, Donald Trump will be the new US president. When his presidency begins, the political conflict between China and the United States will have no doubt to become more intense. Trump had stated earlier that he will immediately increase 60% tariff on Chinese imports after being elected.
If it happens, it will cause an extremely serious blow to China's exports. China's exports will drastically decrease in a brief period of time, and Hong Kong's role as a super intermediary will also be severely damaged.
Hong Kong is in a position between the two great superpowers, and it is inevitable that the business environment will be relentlessly destroyed in this intense geopolitics’ conflict. As a result, there will be a fatal hit to SMEs, many of them have to close down in the coming year. Therefore, the unemployment rate is likely to rise rapidly in 2025.
Early this March, the property market had revived for two months after the withdrawal of spicy measures from the property market. Following the interest rate cut, and the central government has been actively intervening in the securities market. In response to these factors, the stock market rose for two weeks and returned to trade inactively after a short rebound. The effectiveness of central government's intervention was minimal, and the property market did not respond at all.
In the near future, there are no positive factors to reverse the downward trend of the property market. Recently, the first-time buyers’ second-hand properties prices have been falling in various districts. The prices of small and convenient housing estates adjacent to the MTR stations have decreased below HK$ 10,000 per square foot. The overall second-hand properties prices have declined to the level of ten years ago.
Until recently, the Central City Index was about 135 points, and it is estimated that it will fall to between 110 and 115 points at the end of next year. It means that current properties prices will decrease further 15 to 19%. In 2025, it is still a bad year for the property market.
