Near the end of this year, either the executives of the property firms or the property market's KOLs have begun to comment and analyze the yearly performance of the property market. Moreover, they also predict the property market development of the next year. In summary, most of them tend to be optimistic and forecast property prices will rise 5 to 10% in 2025.
These industry insiders or company bosses, who represent individual group or public interests, are naturally positive about the property market. When all the related parties of property industry expressed confidence about the property market, a government land tender in Siu Lek Yuen was won by Chinachem Group with accommodation value of only HK$3,357 per square foot (psf.). When Its bidding price compared to a residential land tender in the same district won by Sun Hung Kai Properties three months ago, it fell 15% from HK$3,952 to 3,357 psf.
Under such circumstances, the government should reject the bidding price, but it accepted it with gratitude, indicating that the government had accepted the land price declining significantly. Indeed, it is evident that the government is more likely to accept the developer's ultra-low bidding price from now on.
The cost of the project won by Chinachem was less than HK$ $10,000 psf. Three years later, it will be profitable if its sales price is HK$12,000 psf or more. Therefore, the average transaction price of City One Shatin nearby is under pressure and has to be reduced 30% from HK$12,000 to $8,400 psf. Otherwise, it will be difficult to attract buyers to purchase this old housing estate's units. In fact, a three-bedroom unit of this estate had recently been sold. Its transaction price dropped to HK$8,700 psf, which is 27% lower than the average price of City One Shatin .
Furthermore, there was also a two-bedroom unit in Jubilee Garden nearby, which transaction price fell by 14% from an average 
price of HK$10,000 to 8,635 psf. Two plots of residential lands tender in Sha Tin District were sold for about HK$3,000 psf, which has obviously exacerbated the slump of property prices by adding accelerants.
Recently, a middle floor unit in China Merchants Building of Shun Tak Centre East Wing in Sheung Wan was sold. This unit was 3200 square feet, and was sold at HK$12,400 psf. The seller acquired this unit seven years ago. The new transaction price is 60% lower than the purchasing price, and 71% lower than the record high of HK$ 42,000 psf. As this transaction price is confirmed, half of the commercial building's investors will be insolvent, and the consequences are extremely serious.
The government has taken the lead in accepting the ultra-low bidding price at the end of this year, which will directly drag down the property price. Besides, the Northern Metropolis Scheme, which will provide a massive amount of land, adheres to the original plan to implement. In this situation, the sellers will be very passive in this weakening property market.
