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Hong Kong is on the way to returning poverty

Damon Ho

In recent days, the central government declared a series of financial measures to safeguard the inactive stocks market. Although the revival plan is favorable to most investors. However, the promising funds were still in the drafting stage after three press conferences. In this situation, Hang Seng index was down from previous high of 23000 to 20000 points.  The new market followers were the first victims and trapped in the falling market. Moreover, many investors are still holding a lot of depreciated shares and have no hope of regaining the profits in near future.

 

Concerning the new property sales, those property sales prices below the costing got incredibly good responses, but the sales of other high-quality with reduced prices’ new properties were still in a stalemate. Developers have difficulty getting back investment funds. Thus, they are reluctant to increase the land bank and naturally unwilling to purchase lands by tenders. Consequently, the government’s revenues from land sales have decreased significantly. In the first five months of this year, the government's fiscal deficit was HK$183.9 billion, and its fiscal reserves fell from the peak of 1.1 trillion to 550.7 billion. If we cannot hold down the enlarging fiscal deficit, the fiscal reserves will be burned out in three to five years. 

 

Referring to the real estate industry, wealthy property investors are no exception to cope with financial stress, and half of them are in dire situation. Due to their holding properties, such as shops and commercial premises being depreciated by half, it has been causing substantial financial burden to the landlords. Assuming a shop investor has a mortgaged portfolio that is worth HK$1 billion, and its loan amount is 400 million, this investor is still in sound financial condition.  

 

Unfortunately, the shops’ prices fell by 50%, the original property valuation fell to 500 million, and its debt ratio rose to 80% under the condition that the loan size remained unchanged. If the shops' prices decrease 10% or more, the total net assets value of this investors will be reduced to zero. By a rough estimate, there are half of these wealthy investors falling to the brink of bankruptcy.

 

Additionally, the total assets value of a typical middle class has been greatly reduced. Assuming this middle class holds 10 million assets, the total net asset value has depreciated to 6 million due to the constant decline of the stocks and property market. The middle classes are much better than those property multi-millionaire even though they have suffered a lot either.

 

Hong Kong is challenged by a really tough geopolitics and business environment. No matter how great difficulty it is, it is imperative to reduce the fiscal deficit as low as possible and achieve a balance budgeting in near future. In addition, the shrinking of the retail and finance industries has caused a serious employment problem in our society. If the government does not find the right antidote to solve these problems, the increasing unemployment rate will have a detrimental effect on society's stability.

 
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