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Ultra luxury housing market enters lost generation

Damon Ho

Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the stock market is weakening day by day. The property market is also sluggish. Until recently, CK Asset Holdings announced to forfeit the $2.1 billion deposit from the buyer of the Borrett Road project. This ultra luxury residential project is situated at 21 Borrett Road of Hong Kong Island. One year ago, when this mega deal was announced by Cheung Kong, even the general investors were doubtful about how the deal would be closed smoothly. One year of declaration of this eye-catching deal, Cheung Kong announced this transaction was formally cancelled.

Indeed, the weakness of luxury housing market has been starting three years ago. In 2019, economic environment had shown unfavourable sign alerting scrupulous investors. Due to the deteriorating business environment, foreign investors had been suffered from this negative impact. The leasing market, as the benchmark of the luxury residential market, its vacancy rate started to rise, but its sales prices were still relatively stable.

Following the announcement of Borrett Road's transaction last year, the transaction volume of luxury properties was slower and weaker. As the outlook of luxury housing market was bleak, Cheung Kong sold one hundred and fifty-two units of Borrett Road project in a package to a Singaporean property fund, which could be considered a magic fortune to reverse the situation from worse to best. This mega deal's consideration was about $20.8 billion.

Based on the transactions of past year, luxury properties market has been half-frozen. In addition, in recent months, the luxury homes of several mainland riches had been taken over by bank owners, which had dampened the confidence of the original buyer of Borrett project to complete the transaction.

Since the cancelation being announced, some market commentators believed that the luxury housing market would be further dragged down. If this incident being analysed from other point of view, it is solely reflecting the result of the deterioration of the luxury housing market. In addition, the first owner of Cheung Kong is financially strong, so these units will not be opened for sale at a lower price range. As a result, this incident will not further damage market in near future. However, after this incident, the downward tendency sales and leases of luxury residential market have gradually formed.  

The rich's wealthy will no doubt be decreased to lower level. Hong Kong has been affected by the global economic downturn in the past three years. The sales and lease of residential shops&office market have been hard hit in vary degrees. Even the border reopening, it is difficult to fully recovery in brief period.

 
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1. Leasing demand has picked up in core districts 2023-07-15 13:48:53

Leasing momentum, particularly in core shopping districts, has picked up in a recent spike of retail sales, 21% YoY growth in the first five months of 2023. 

According to JLL, leasing activity in the first half of the year was dominated by mid-to-mass-end trades and food and beverage segments.

In the near-term, F&B, grocery, mass fashion and lifestyle trades as well as experiential retail will support leasing demand

2. Magic deal has fallen through 2023-07-16 10:26:34

Property developer, CK Asset Holdings, has terminated the sale of the 21 Borret Road development to ORIC-Borrett Limited following the latter's failure to give the first part of the payment of $1.04b.

In a bourse filing, CK Asset Holdings said it has also forfeited the $2.1b deposit from ORIC-Borrett Limited.

"Despite the parties’ attempts to address the default through discussion on a without prejudice basis, no resolution has been reached," the company stated.

3. US inflation rate dropped to 3% 2023-07-16 17:27:04

Inflation rose 3% in the year to June, according to data, from 4% in May.

Inflation has fallen sharply from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022 and the latest reading marks the slowest pace since March 2021.

The figures suggest a succession of interest rate rises have punctured soaring prices.

However, analysts still expected the US Federal Reserve to raise rates again this month.

4. Residential capital values dropped 1.2% 2023-07-17 09:12:52

Rising mortgage rates, ample new housing supply and the absence of Mainland Chinese buyers dragged mass residential capital values down by 1.2% QoQ in 2Q23, data from JLL showed.

On the other hand, capital values of luxury residential rose in 2Q23, climbing 1.3% over the last six months.

Overall, JLL said Hong Kong’s housing market is having its “longest price adjustment since 2008 and has not found a bottom,” adding that home prices have experienced a maximum decline of 15.9% from the peak over the last 20 months.

5. Bank deposit protection limit raised to$800,000 2023-07-18 18:46:43

Hong Kong is floating plans to raise its bank deposit protection limit to HK$800,000 from HK$500,000 previously.

The Hong Kong Deposit Protection Board has issued a consultation paper on enhancements to the Deposit Protection Scheme (DPS), according to an announcement posted at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) website.

Amongst proposals include raising the deposit protection limit by 21%, which the HKMA said is in line with the inflation.

6. Secondary luxury home transactions rose 64% 2023-07-19 13:36:43

The number of secondary luxury home transactions in The Peak and the Southern district in the first half rose 64 percent from the second half of last year, thanks to the reopened border between Hong Kong and the mainland, said Centaline Property Agency.

Data from Centaline showed that the value of transactions for the first six months of this year also climbed 21.5 percent to HK$4.15 billion compared with the previous half.

Of the deals, strata units accounted for 36 transactions during the period, and the traded houses amounted to 10, said the local real estate agent.

The number of deals exceeding HK$100 million in the secondary market also increased to seven, versus six in the second half of last year. The transaction value climbed by 5.8 percent to HK$2.3 billion.

7. Core shopping leasing momentum has picked 2023-07-20 19:13:16

Leasing momentum, particularly in core shopping districts, has picked up in a recent spike of retail sales, 21% YoY growth in the first five months of 2023. 

According to JLL, leasing activity in the first half of the year was dominated by mid-to-mass-end trades and food and beverage segments.

In the near-term, F&B, grocery, mass fashion and lifestyle trades as well as experiential retail will support leasing demand

“About 4 million sq ft of new retail supply is scheduled for completion by the end of the year. All of these projects are located in non-core shopping areas,”  Oliver Tong, head of retail at JLL said,