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Agency firms’ mainland business became negative asset

Damon Ho

Stepping into the second half of this year, the real estate market has turned to be sluggish. Main cause is the suppressed purchasing power for the last three years that have been burned out in the second quarter. So far, there is no more good news to stimulate the property market. Even so, the major local agency firms were out of red in the first half year. Agency’s business has turned significantly better than the pessimistic forecast at the beginning of this year.

The improvement of the local agency business does not mean that the crisis is over. It is because large agency firms’ subsidiaries in mainland China are still deep trouble. Last two decades, Hong Kong-funded domestic agency firms had expanded massively along with the upward trend of the property market and had enjoyed the prosperity for years. Unfortunately, the past three years of prolonged epidemic prevention and control policies, in addition with the countermeasures against housing speculation, the scale of agency industry has been shrinking rapidly due to the lack of transactions.

Except of changes of the industry's macroeconomic situation, Hong Kong-funded local agency firms must face fierce competition from mainland counterparts either. Under this new normal, domestic agency industry has become unwanted business. In early years, the more branches one company owned, the more profitable it would be. Now, it is simply at the opposite. Due to policy regulations, domestic branches can only be reduced gradually. Thus, the future losses of domestic branches will continue to add financial burden to their mother companies in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong Local agency firms were fortunate because there was a brief period of property market rally in the first half of the year, which forced the trading volume to rebound from the trough. With this rebound, it helps to stop losses in the local business. However, it is still hard to predict whether the trading volume will return to normal in the second half of this year. However, no matter what the situation is, it is difficult to reverse the trend of giving up the mainland agency business.

 
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1. More new projects are coming 2023-07-08 12:51:23

More new projects are coming to the market soon, and these include single-block homes in urban areas. One such is Aruna in Ap Lei Chau, which is releasing its first price list on July 13.

It is believed that Aruna will become a new price benchmark in the district in the aftermath of the health and economic havoc wreaked by Covid-19 pandemic.

Aruna was scheduled to sell 25 units in the first round on June 24. However, the developer announced a day before that sales were being postponed.

Chuang's China Investments, the developer, had planned to offer the 25 units, which range in size from 205 to 317 square feet, at prices between HK$5.31 million and HK$8.58 million after discounts.

2. Yellen urged China to combat climate change 2023-07-08 22:58:39

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged China on Saturday to combat the “existential threat” of climate change by supporting international funds intended to help developing countries confront the crisis.

On the second full day of her visit to Beijing, Yellen said the United States and China should work together to tackle global challenges despite differences over arange of issues.

3. Equity capital markets (ECM) recorded its highest 2023-07-09 12:32:25

Equity capital markets (ECM) in Hong Kong recorded its highest first-half period by proceeds since 2021 in 1H23, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed.

According to LSEG’s report, proceeds reached US$11.1b in 1H23, representing a 46.2% increase from 1H22. ECM issuances likewise rose, increasing 6.1% YoY.

Looking at industries, real estate had the biggest market share in ECM proceeds, accounting for 26.0% or US$29.9b. Compared to 1H22, real estate’s ECM proceeds soared 137.6% YoY.

4. HK grads pick J.P. Mogan and HSBC first 2023-07-09 17:39:34

Hong Kong’s new batch of talents from the business and commerce schools has named J.P. Morgan and HSBC as their ideal employers, Universum's survey showed.

Behind the two financial services company were Morgan Stanley, Google, and HKSAR Government.

According to Universum, Hong Kong students are prioritising companies with a “friendly work environment”.

They also prefer workplaces with "professional training & development" and those that encourage work-life balance.

"High future earnings" has fallen in the list of graduates' priorities, dropping to the 4th position, two places lower than the previous year. 

5. HKPC launched New Industrialisation Centre 2023-07-10 12:53:13

The Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) has launched its "New Industrialisation Development Centre" (NI Centre) aimed at helping enterprises embrace smart manufacturing.

HKPC said the centre will be working closely with the HKSAR Government to achieve new industrialisation as envisioned in the "Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Development Blueprint.”

The centre will also promote the optimisation and upgrading of industrial chains in the
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA).

6. HKMA announced mortgage loan adjustments 2023-07-10 17:40:19

The Monetary Authority announced a set of mortgage loan adjustments that would strike a balance between retaining bank stability and risk management.

Monetary Authority Chief Executive Eddie Yue said there will be changes to “maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for self-occupied residential properties.” 

“For properties with a value of $15m or less, the maximum LTV ratio will be raised to 70%. For properties with a value of more than $15m and up to $30m, the maximum ratio will be increased to 60%. For those with a value above $30m, meanwhile, it will remain unchanged at 50%,” read the statement.

7. HK dips to 2nd place 2023-07-11 10:33:49

The global political conflicts and closure of borders impacted Hong Kong’s top spot in the priciest retail destination. According to Cushman and Wakefield’s 2022 report, Hong Kong has now edged down to second place. 

The Upper Fifth Avenue located in New York ranked first in the most expensive retail destination report, with $15,622 (US$ 2,000) per square foot (sq ft). In 2019, the US was at the second spot globally.

Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui has $11,216 (US$1,436) per sq ft. The market was in first place before the pandemic hit.

8. US Housing market finally started slowing 2023-07-11 23:07:40

After a record-breaking run that saw mortgage rates plunge to all-time lows and prices soar to new highs, the US housing market finally started slowing in late 2022. Mortgage companies engaged in mass layoffs, economists lamented a "housing recession" and home prices seemed poised for a correction.

But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: home values started rising again. In fact, prices have increased for three months in a row, according to the latest Case-Shiller home price index.

"The US housing market continued to strengthen in April 2023," Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a June 27 statement about the latest Case-Shiller reading.

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The government has been studying measures to boost the birth rate, says Chief Executive John Le.

Lee said a drop in the student population is a structural problem and the SAR's birth rate is lower than most cities in the world.

According to the Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong's fertility rate was 701 last year.

"I have been thinking what can the government do to encourage citizens to give birth so our population can be enriched and the society can have sustainable development," Lee said.

10. Gov stepping up to develop Northern Metropolis 2023-07-14 12:26:56

The government is stepping up the pace of development at Northern Metropolis, Kwu Tung North and new areas in Fan Ling North.

To speed things up, it proposed last year lower premiums for land-use conversions in the latter two areas at standardized rates.

However, complicating matters is the continued softening of property and land prices.

That complication might not have been taken into account by the Development Bureau when it announced on June 30 that standard land-use conversion premiums would go down by up to 33 percent.