湯博士太客氣了, 假日都可協助你為讀者帶來新作, 是我們網站的榮幸, 何況我和我的同事都可遙控公司電腦上載, 上載僅是舉手之勞。

僅上星期天, 我同事的手機出了問題, 才由我親自上載。

在我的稱呼欄打「網主」, 也只可遙控公司電腦才可以。

To: 9. 有人未醒

10年期日本国债利率现在还不到1%，为世界最低，尽管日本国债水平和预算赤字水平极高。事实上，如今日本债务量大约在GDP的230%，比希腊（175%）更高，几乎是意大利（125%）的两倍。年度预算赤字接近GDP的10%，比任何欧元区国家都高。在名义GDP停滞不前的情况下，如此赤字造成债务/GDP比率每年升高10%。

日本家庭储蓄率近几年大幅下降，跌至不到2%。高公司储蓄和低商业投资共存的局面维系着日本的经常项目盈余，让日本能够在国内找到预算赤字融资源。但日本的经常项目盈余在过去五年中迅速下降，从2007年的约占GDP的6%降至现在的1%。

Extracted from "日本的错误增长战略", written by Professor Martin Feldstein

Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-wrong-growth-strategy-for-japan-by-martin-feldstein/chinese#z91MmB1qBlimXJqH.99

在日本政府、日本家庭這麼高負債的情況下，就算零息下，那裏有錢買樓？

唔熟日本經濟就番屋企讀下先書，小朋友。

另一方面，香港人有好厚儲蓄，2012年12月，銀行體系内存款82,974億，貸款41,217億，淨存款27,281億，約GDP1.4倍。但97年存款26,657億，貸款41,217億，超借1.0倍 GDP。由於今日底子厚，香港人有能力應付任佝黑天鵝，就算收入增長放慢，仍不怕。

至於「9/F有人未醒」，你先至未醒，厘度唔係你D未醒小朋友玩既地方，快D番屋企，你媽咪會好擔心你出事

呢度d好友，不斷搬龍門，一時又話低息大晒，一時又話儲蓄至大晒，供應增加的時候，又會話可能唔達標，到了發展商減價，又話二手業未必跟，到了二業主減價，又會話只有小部份人，到了樓價跌兩成，又話升了咁多，跌兩成冇乜大不了，到左跌五成，又會話九七跌七成都會升番……。

不過，都係得講字，阿伯始終得一層自住樓。

PP，你都係番去同阿伯一齊做宅男啦。

To: 元朗人

Thanks for your compliments

Happy are those that have bought their units these few years(2003 til 2012)......

Have been seriously thinking about a question for my friends that didn't listen to my advice last few years.......If they are buying units for self-use, would it still be OK to buy under these conditions (3Ds of Gov., potential fluctuations in next 1-2 years bla bla bla)?  Supposingly they can afford to pay half of the downpayment(what they are targeting are those over 10M, that's why they're desperately looking forward to the downturn of market.....)

ANY SUGGESTIONS???

@Peter Paker. Tks for your adices & that's actually what bothers me abit, some family members & friends that didn't listen to me years ago.  But each of them have different cash flows & financial scenerios, some of them can only afford what you call"On board"3 bedroom units aroud 6-7M if the Gov. has loosen up the policies so they can borrow money easier but I think they miscalculated their affordability & are targeting somewhere in prime location 3 bedroom with good school network.  That should easily cost them 10M which under existing circumstances would be impossible for them.

So my other rich friend that has cash is OK then, they can still wait until the price looks more attractive or so. 

After reading your analysis & data, that gives me some kind of inspirations in investments too, small units should still be hot in the market next few years......Cool!!!