喂，博士，我真喺要比個like你呀，你嗰副戰鬥格又番來了，記住要聽咁錫你嘅家姐說話喎，唔好令佢擔心你，ok !

話時話，除咗樓神強外、你就喺眾地產界中唯一堅定話今年會升之人，連老施都有d抝抵驚跌啦，你究竟點睇得咁通透架，真喺要教下我偷下師 !

I believe 3 simpler reasons for the current boost in property market:

1. adminstrative measures on property market of gov't delaying lots of purchase, hence, accumulated lots of real demand,

2. signalling from US Fed that super low interest rate will remain until end of 2014, and

3. easing of funds in banking sector, hence, banks are more aggressive in mortgage business.

My prediction, property market will be heated up first in smaller flats, then turn on the upgrading demand, so medium priced flats will be heated. Luxury market will be another story, it should wait until the mainland further easing of money, then it will start to pick up in price.  Without further adminstrative interference, property market should continue to bull and starts to slow in end 2013....my guess, from now till then, should have 20% appreciation....

To reply no. 1. :

To share my view, I think it has already been a common view that fluctuation of property market will be within interval +/-10% in 2012 where there will be no drastic dropping or soaring.  Taking the worst, rental income mostly compensates the lost in capital value under current favourable low interest environment. Plus poor performance in stock market, people tend to invest on property. 

However, the fact is that whether profit is made also depends on the holding period/maturity.  Especially, under SSD, purchasers usually set their holding period 2 years above where the economy and people's expectation will be substantially different. 

Any factors in your opinions will keep the market for 2 more years ?

iBond 2 is a good option but insufficient in term of size.

To No. 3,

Guess I cannot agree with you.  The fall of Mr. Tung was surely because of the strike of over a million HK people. 

Putting yourself into our leaders' shoes, what you would concern most regarding HK or even Mainland China....STABILITY. Over a million HK people going out on strike told our leaders that it was a very unstable and they need to do something to calm the crowd down and that led to the fall of Mr. Tung.

The key to calm HK down is a good economy.  Property sector as a key pillar for HK economy, it cannot fall.  It can stay flat in price but cannot have sharp fall as it will have a negative wealth effect and affect private consumption and hence reduce employment of retail sectors which absorb lots of low skill workers.  Mr. Tung and CY advocating 85,000, was like digging a grave for themselves and HK.  That's why Mr. Tung had to step down.  That's also the reason why CY cannot be the Chief Executive.  If CY really heads HK, sooner or later, there will be another million of HK people on strike. 

There bound to be 利益集團 in a society, whether, they are the general undeprivileged or middle classes or those corporate owners.  I think in your context, you are referring to developers or corporate owners.  But, why are you so against developers or corporate owners if their benefits coincide with a good economy??  With a good economy, everybody can be 利益集團.

Please don't blindly support CY, use your brain to think through. In which part of his policies indicates a promising good economy??  The most prominent point in his policies is welfare....can you give me a light how can a welfare policy can spur a good economy?? If just giving out welfare can be a Chief Executive, I promise you that I can be a better one than.  I can go to the extreme that distributing all the HK Reserve to every HKgers. 

So, don't be naive. Purely against 利益集團 is not going to help you and every HKgers.

Agree with no. 6 that people would set the holding period more that 2 years.  For those buyers who are finally released from the SSD, except there is a dramatic change of economic foundation, they would not easily sell the flats to take insignificant short-term profits in the existing environment as every trade would push them jumping into another painful SSD period.  As regards, apart from the speculators who require immediate liquidity, there should be no large increase in supply after completion of SSD.  The recent warming atmosphere has further provided confidence, if not illusion, to owners to stay even longer in the market.  If the improvement of market sentiment could last for a quarter or at least 1/2 months more (though I’m not so optimistic), I believe more and more people, especially those who hunger for buying signals, would rush into the market and sustain the “El Nino” effect as predicted by Dr. TONG.

07/08年樓市很抉回升, 當時的樓價是多少? 只要看看樓市成交中的 "上次成交記錄" 就知. 

但現時很多30多年樓齡的樓價是300多萬. 如果計樓宇有60年使用值, 現時的300多萬樓價, 剛好是預付業主 30年租金.

買樓相比租樓更要承擔交易支出(佣金,樓契及政府印花稅),管理月費,差餉等, 又要另加10年一次的大裝修及樓宇保養支出及15-20年的按揭利息支出.  但是30層高樓的重建值比 3-10層樓宇低很多.

1 樓---「 加葱」話樓價貴就要跌？？真係可圈可點！！
邊個決定樓價高低？-----係租緊樓嘅人？係揾一兩萬樓下嘅人？係坐係冷氣房嘅高官？或係啲政棍？？
普通人買樓，可能係一生人最大嘅決定，但原來唔少人決定入唔入市，可能只係今晚去同邊個食晚飯咁簡單！！
第處唔敢講，係中原嗰網查吓，中西半山嗰度，一半業主原來層樓已經無爭銀行錢，就算有爭都係講緊 3 成左右！
有幾個物業收租，自己連家人揾幾拾萬一個月，如江河之鰂，都唔敢大大聲！！
決定入唔入貨？-----對呢班人黎講，係睇後市有無得升？會升幾多？租金夠唔夠供銀行？做唔做倒一半按揭？？
而唔係有無首期呀加葱！因為拒哋係咁依就可以班倒成千萬首期，嗰市旺落去，呢班人只會更加下定決心加注！！
 
香港樓市越升，成交越多，這會令到有首期嘅人加快入市，萬多個年供應，只係九牛一毛！我真係替新特首頭痛！

Refer to recent land sales, take an average land price at HK$4000 per square foot, and use an average construction cost at HK$2000 per square foot, then add up to the unit cost that is HK$6000 per square foot in whole Hong Kong !

As money is everywhere, any call for lending is anytime, and near to zero interest rates were made from central banks, if someone sold their properties less than HK$6000 per square foot, they were underestimated their selling prices in the long term., or other reasons...

Don't expect the huge debts & debt crisis can be fixed within one decade, particularly when people from western countries are getting order and order...

Remember the real estate market in HK does not belong to 7 million of population since 2003.

Whether you like it or not, the properties demand really needs to cover the whole country  !

有少少補充，中西半山地區上中原網查，無爭銀行按揭平均係 3 成，但拒無計埋啲弍叁拾年以上嘅單幢樓， 
呢啲樓嘅業主唔少係一手買入，或者買左超過弍拾年，全無按揭嘅十之八九，呢啲業主雷打不放，自住放租两條腿走路！
幾年無成交嘅單幢樓，比比皆是，拒哋可以坐貨等收租，再唔係就等收購，越舊越值租、越值錢！ 
 
因為外國人喜歡住舊樓，而田生又四處揾舊樓重建！ 

講利益輸送, 點及得TT+商家佬!

D人一口咬定CYge西九問題+爆料, 雖然佢一再否認。

生果報先利用CY打沉TT(只因要與星島對抗), 而家開始打CY, 因為最終要攪到烏烟瘴氣, 何俊仁漁人得利。

邊個最毒? 成哥一定無運行, 生果報會啄住佢係共產黨員。其實唔接受共產黨員ge選舉, 算不算民主選舉?

The latest government figures show us that the Jan Inflation Rate climbed up to 6.1% in HK ! 

This year we need to raise the rents to cover the loss due to rising inflation... 

From the local media reports, TT has finished his application for election. It means he gets back to good conditions As Leaders, Be Bright, Brave and Innovative.

TT is a tough man who accepted his poor management of FACTS that local & overseas media created tremendous stresses on him and his family.

Hope to read his policies in the coming days

各位,
拜讀湯博士論文已經有一段時間,一直是只看不寫。
今天突然也想發表一下自己對樓市的感受。
本人在09年前一直只有自住物業，並沒有持有投資物業。
直到前兩年，一口氣買入了3 項物業作爲投資用途。
中間發生了什麽事情驅使我作出這個決定呢？
由於工作的關係，從09年開始我就幾乎是常駐北京或上海工作，在異地工作，當然要找房子住。
以下是我在2010年在北京找房子的遭遇。爲了方便工作，我要在北京二環附近找房子（二環是最市中心的地方）。
我鎖定了一個屋苑以後（大陸叫小區）就開始看房，過程中我看中了一套約130平米的，裝修得十分漂亮，幾乎接近酒店的裝潢。
本來打算租下，但我只能簽半年租約，業主不同意，結果拉倒。
離開的時候我多口問了那位業主一句: 你的房子裝修得那麽漂亮，為甚麽不自己住？他漫不經意的回答我：我對面還有一套是自己住的。
當時那套房子的市場价大約是600万人民幣，那就是説這個業主起碼有過千萬的身家（假設沒太多的貸款）。
本欄的讀者可能會說，沒什麽大不了，我的身家遠遠不止這個數。好，繼續看房。
我又看中了另外一套，裝修沒有先前的漂亮，但還可以。最重要是業主同意我短租6個月。爲什麽他會願意短租呢？
他告訴我：
這套房子我是給我爸爸媽媽住的，現在是夏天，他們去了別墅住，過完夏天他們就會回來這裡住。我就住在對面（同一個屋苑），你有事可以隨時找我。
這個經歷確確實實的説明了 (1) 大陸的購買力已經到了一個驚人的地步.(2)大陸人好像有一個習慣,買房子不只是買一套的,他們有可能買2,3 套.
當時我想,北京上海那麽大的地方他們也可以把房價炒起(可能不是炒,是實際需求,他們叫剛性需求),有一天他們湧到香港買房的話,香港的房價會怎麽樣.
.............結果就是我趕快跑囘香港多買兩套!
其實我已經是后之后覺,但我發現好多香港人比我還要后之后覺! 任总已經一語道破,香港的樓市已經不單是香港人的市場.
還有一點我的感受特別是深,一般的香港人不會感受到,那就是人民幣的匯率,我每兩周囘香港一次,每次囘大陸都會換人民幣,我發現每一次等值港幣換到的人民幣越來越少!
那就是説,香港的東西對大陸人來説是越來越便宜,包括房價!

剛剛看到 YL 好像出戰了,看來 CY 得如意算盤打不響了! 

We have repeatedly mentioned that in accordance with chinese traditions, chinese love buying real estates. So, one person keeps at least 2 houses living in Hong Kong to balance the side effects of inflation in the long term.

Take a moderate of 2.5% for next 30 years, the current unit cost @HK$6000 for HK properties will be over HK$12,000 per square foot...

Obviously, the home prices are subject to the policies prepared by next leader..

To No. 13)  Actually your query raised up is also my recent concerns, I've searching apartments in some traditional luxurious area(can be up to 14K to 23K per sq ft) but the problem is: I'm thinking the conditions of the apartments(they're mostly 37-45yrs old).  Very spacious inside & utility rate super high & location perfect.  Since they're kinda old, I'm also thinking about if there's a potential for redevelopment???  In those areas, I think it's abit diff. to gather 80/90% landlords to sell(original price is already high)??  Within same budget, maybe newer/better furnished apartments have better potentials??

But if you talk about the rental Vs buying, I'm afraid I agree with most of the readers here.  If you don't have one, it still worths to get one.  For your example of 3M old apartments,  if you sell it anytime between the next 30 yrs(at least you get back your capital & property appreciation, look it's 30 yrs you're talking man!)  After 30 yrs of rent, you'll end up with paying more than 3M rent, that's it.  No need for difficult calculus. 

My old apartment in Tai Hang Rd has benefited from redevelopment project, buildt from 22 floors into 50 something 60 floors I think.  Smaller sizes are actually easier to be talked into redevelopment......One chicken, two favours!!!

YL, 成哥 或 TT, 我都沒有反感, 但如果只揀一個, 仍是揀 TT。(P.S. 三個都不是完人, 要爆鑊的話, 選前或選後都有可能, 不一定選後不會。)

哈哈，既然系上海幫，講多兩句。

09 年我住陸家嘴世茂滨江园，当时月租8000，而家应该要超过10000。

当时房价大约38000 一平米，现在要50000。

唉, 苏州过后......

不过以世贸甘既质数,就算50000 ( 即系5000 一尺),如果吾系限购令,我都会考虑

想請問一下 : 

成哥選上的話是不是全家要放棄加拿大籍?  話說參選人是不是都要申報國籍?會不會哪天我們忽然發現香港特首是外國人?

完成為孩子們的日常烹飪工作後, 落街做街頭市場調查. 看房子的人是多了,但多數的成交價格不是太好. 樓市「小陽春」的小陽是看見了, 但春還沒感覺到, 反而感到有一點小陽萎的味道!

肥師奶的建議是『等待』, 『第一卦: 初九,潜龙勿用』.

半山區有一個現像係層樓越舊，全部清還按揭嘅比例越高，咁代表乜嘢呢，我解譯吓！ 
係 2009 年初，因為銀行水浸，按揭貸款利息係 H + 0.7厘，而當時Ｈ係 0.0幾厘，實際供款利息係 0.8 厘都無！ 
我都慢人幾個月啦，年中走去各間銀行格價，想攞盡着數，真係間間銀行都驚你唔幫襯咁，條件好都你唔信！！ 
因為我只係借層樓嘅市價 2 成，而還款佔家庭收入只係 2 成樓下，唔止一間銀行嘅貸款部職員教我兩公婆， 
玩「細胞分裂」，借轉按之機，同拒哋銀行借大啲，然後買間細少少或遠少少嘅樓收租！ 
拒哋仲整埋個收支表黎俾我睇，收租真係夠還息有凸，而自住嗰間只係供多幾千銀，真係心都郁埋！！ 
但因為我層樓係 1997 年中買嘅，試過負資產的味道，所以我同老婆商量過之後都無借多啲錢做收租佬！！ 
睇翻轉頭，嗰幾位銀行職員真係講得無錯，我唔聽拒哋講真係「揼」，但借問聲其他有我相同背境嘅人會點決定呢？
有層無按揭嘅樓，在現時就代表你可以走入任何一間銀行度玩「細胞分裂」，而呢啲人係講緊數拾萬呀！ 
 
我仲未計埋果班比我哋富貴嘅同胞，新特首真係要祝你好運先得，呢個燙手山芋真係唔知點攪！！ 

回王先生 : 我08年最低潮已經想細胞分裂，可惜銀行唔放水。而我最終响去年中正值樓市高位分裂左，2房分裂成2房 + 3房。理由是再唔分裂就沒有能力分裂了，之前一直在等機會，眼見心水單位一個又一個由買得起變買唔起，唔好話分裂，就連2房換3房自住都快頂唔住，樓價再升入息已經撐唔住，我覺得樓價長期會穩步上揚而人工卻停滯，今日唔搏一舖，可能一世都hold唔到兩層樓。本來鍾情西九龍港鐵沿線至現在唯有新界區。自己因需要住3房(新界)，2房(九龍)出租，寧願住平D，留番D錢分裂。我唔係抄樓，只係為20年後退休做準備。但我唔係港島個D，而係公屋出身，又買唔到居屋，政府唔會養個D之前重輸過股票，跟住節衣宿食，一蚊一蚊咁捱，現正在挑戰極限。

To reply no. 42.

There is no definite answer to your question while the decisions shall be concluded upon the individual's financial status and confidence to risk taking.   However, couple of elements below you may take into consideration:-

1. Liquidity risk, in other words, your cash flow...when there is sufficient cash or cash equivalent paying off the outstanding debt,  risk of leveraging your real estate asset is low; and

2. Holding period, if the maturity of holding is fixed, you have to comparing the expected gain/loss of capital vs. rental income.

Generally speaking, currently, for a mid ago with considerable cash in hand, investment of real property with reasonable leveraging is still a good option...IN MY OPINION. 

To reply 44:

Frankly speaking, risk of your property holding portfolio would have been lower if you had taken reference of the method of rental income covering repayment obligation.  In simple words, rental income should preferrably cover the repayments of both property.  Retenal of NT lagges behind Kowloon side and Hk island. In other words, your will not be able to benefit yourself from mortgage payment no matter which flat rented.