今日同03年到98年不同的是：

当时业主补贴租客。每个月业主都在消耗购买量。

今日是租客补贴业主，每个月业主购买力在增加。

係 97年嗰陣啲發展商真係好勇，持貨過多、負債又重！   
拒地被銀行迫倉又好、真係資金乾塘又好，一手樓出貨價重低過 2手！  
加上做地產發展商幾拾年都未見過啲啲大場面，有啲實力唔夠嘅 中小型地產商真係爭啲執！
        
但現在啲地產商醒目曬，劃完則就部儲點散貨，隨時起到一半已經無貨賣！ 
        
長實同新鴻基盤數靚仔到負債比率20多%，貨尾得幾千個…點同 97年比？

香港地产股沽空比例越来越大, 这里的确有很多真理, 但是只要对冲基金要吃大茶饭, 他们能够启动中外传媒, 把你们的真理推翻, 楼市跌落3成, 有可难?

果班大叫政府打击高楼价的高贵议员，现在才知道是益了地产霸权，害了一班想上车但因银行减按而不能上车的中惨。

之前一班在大叫楼价太贵，大跌30%或以上的小朋友，今年有什么计划 ？等或是再请求高贵的议员帮倒忙，叫政府再多加一把劲，推倒楼价 ？

Good Morning Everyone,

This year we have an extra day to live and 24 hours to think. Count more1,440 minutes a day and enjoy your life.

I share this idea as a gift of token. Hope you will find it practical.

Using the Newton first law to illustrate Market Mechanism

Newton Law of Motion – First Law

The velocity of a body remains constant unless the body is acted upon by an external force.

By applying the first law on the Gold price, the range trading (Constant) between the symmetrical triangle of Gold Chart (range trading 1800 to 1670 in 6 months gold chart) was broken by an external force (Capital). We can view that the normal transactions based on the daily demand and supply during the range trading. All of a sudden, an enormous amount of Capital (An external force) is strong enough to break the supportive line of the symmetrical triangle at level 1675 along with a follow up selling (Hot Money by speculators) adding the fuel to break 1600 key support level and hit the temporary bottom 1530.

Where Capital comes from?

1. The long term players in the structural bull cycle of Gold square their position. An

external force (primary cause) is released within.

2. The speculators observe this significant movement. They jump in the market and add the fuel to accelerate the momentum.  We call this Hot Money (secondary cause). This money flows in and out for profit taking by speculation.

 Likewise, how can we forecast the HK property price in 2012?

1. Do we observe any external force (Capital outflow)?
2. Do we observe any speculators (Hot Money outflow)?

No enormous capital outflow is occured in the secondary market. Instead, new Capital flows in the primary market. SSD is the market punishment for those speculators lacking of money in the secondary market. This is their price!

As said before, HK Property Price hits the peak in June, 2011 and consolidation is being carried out till March 2012. What's next?

I expect that HK Property Price is going to touch the bottom before March 2012. Then it will have a rally and range trading in next couples of months.

Have a nice day.

See you all after the Lunar New Year.

其實我很不明白，為何只有老外來我們的地方評這評那？又不見我們到他們的地方去做做評級？走來用一些似是而非的口術把市場舞高弄低，從而賺取龐大金錢。最奇怪的是我們很多人又會對那些評估推崇備至，深信是準確無誤的大預言。

對一般普羅大眾來說，我只見很多人長線投資物業成為小富，但就沒多見過投資股票能令人生活舒暢，很多時只會寢食難安，想著補倉。賣物業所套到的錢用來投資股票其實是很很很不智，當然從事股票工作的人一定不會同意我。

1. As one of world class Financial Centre, we need to have third party Real Estate Professional to have an assessment otherwise Capital will not flow in the market without global benchmarking and national label.

2. The high commission is the source of life for Real Estate practitioners from the primary market.  Like Centraline, they reduce or consolidate their branch offices in the districts. Contrary to expectation, they make money in the primary market in terms of commission and revenue. So branch offices reduce but RE practioners increase. Simply speaking, more seats in the class!

Market Sentiment Recap

Bearish

Dec 7, 2011

德銀的報告亦引述中原大股東兼怡居地產董事總經理王文彥稱，本港樓市已由跌市第一階段轉入第二階段，即由量跌價穩，轉為量跌價跌，而且價錢跌幅較成交量跌幅更急。

施永青：料較高位跌15%

理大建築及房地產學系教授許智文亦認為，按息回升，加上市場預期明年本港GDP增長將有所放緩，近日無論一、二市場氣氛均見冷淡，估計明年樓價將輕微下跌約5%。

仲量聯行料中小型住宅樓價明年將跌10%至15%，供應較多的地區如將軍澳更會跌兩成。

Dec 14, 2011

世邦魏理仕（香港）預期本港房地產市場的周期性調整明年將於加劇，樓價及寫字樓租金整體會下調約 10%

萊坊對明年住宅市道亦不抱樂觀態度，料中小型住宅樓價跌10至15%，而豪宅跌幅在10%以內。

美林預期，明年本港樓價下滑一至兩成，主要因為供應增加，需求減少。

Bullish

Dec 13, 2011

嘉華陳玉成﹕明年豪宅樓價將升2成

Dec 14, 2011

長實(0001)副主席兼董事總經理李澤鉅指，本港建築成本於這兩年來上升三至四成，是樓價上升因素之一，但在通脹高企下，市民較傾向買樓保值。

野村亞洲地產研究部兼股票研究主管及董事總經理雷國怡則估計，明年本港樓價上升一成。

Dec 15, 2011

林奮強唱反調 料明年樓價升15％。樓市存在不少負面因素，市場普遍睇淡明年樓價走勢。不過，著名地產股份析員林奮強卻預期，明年本港樓價仍會上漲15%。

P.S. I am very upset to hear Mr. Sze's comments from early last year up till this moment, from very bullish to very bearish. His glory and reputation is dminishing. Today's Sze is not like Yesterday's Sze.

I reiterate my forecast of Dow in 2012 and post it last Nov 2011. Also, US economy is the morning star.

Wave 5             Mar 2, 2009                    6,627

                        Aug 24, 2012                 14,033               7,406         (1.618:1 ratio)

                        (1,271 days)

Advice for stock players :

1. Don't play the buy and hold strategy. It doesn't work for this year.

2. Buy and take profit if you get 15-20% and stop loss at 5% sharp.

施生這麼認為樓市跌15%, 我與地產界朋友分析, 原因有二:

1) 施生自從患中風後, 分析力不及以前, 面對如此複雜的國際形勢亦難以看透前景;

2) 希望藉個人影響力向政府施壓, 希望盡早取消打壓樓市措施, 為代理謀點生路.

儘管如此, 施生的識見仍是十分值得我們後輩學習. C觀點我也一直在追看.

Dec 8, 2011 Spot Gold 1715, AUD/USD 1.026

Recap

那就等買黃金(~1600左右入市)和澳元(~0.97左右入市)"

黃金明年可以上望2200-2500，澳元上望1.05-1.08

若保守一些，黃金+澳元持倉最好不超過現金，而且要等壞消息出現，現價空間不大

Gold stop loss if touched 10% below purchase price (i.e. ~1450), AUD 3% (i.e. ~0.94).

Do you still hold this view or need to make some adjustment?

Below is my views towards property market, which was published in HK Economic Times by 唐榮.

雖然依家樓市成交大跌，但我真係睇唔到有什麼原因導致一手、二手樓價大跌；同埋，由於已達1年期限，SSD 稅率由15% 降至5%，會令到供應大增、價格下跌。這個論點實在有一點保留。
 
利息層面
 
由於於SSD宣佈實施時，在那時候，業主按揭息率大多為 H+0.65% ~ H+0.7%，利息支出低，一般來說，厘班業主持貨力強，唔會大幅劈價，除非坐左好多貨、或者過度借貸； 第二，過去1年租金升幅可觀，現時租金回報十分吸引，相對 0.8 – 0.9% 按揭息率及零息存款利率，厘班業主實無必要賣樓；假若賣樓後，係現今超波動的投資市場及零存款利息的環境下，如何安置資金都係一個十分頭痛的問題。收租可能係一條唔錯嘅出路； 第三，今天新造按揭息率為2.5 – 2.6%，厘班業主當佢地考慮賣樓時，佢地便要放棄H+0.65% ~ H+0.7%按揭計畫，再買另一層樓就係2.5 – 2.6%的按揭息率，如果您係厘班業主，考慮賣樓個時都會想多一想賣唔賣好呢，係唔係??
 
借貸情況
 
香港目前按揭 loan / Value ratio 為53% - 54%，要跌超過4成多，先開始有負資產壓力； 根據在今年3月份的最新銀行按揭數據，原來港人現時買樓，新做按揭只佔樓價的55.8％。如果計及那些港人買樓一次過付清樓款，以及內地人「現兜兜」來港買樓的交易，則平均新做按揭成數將會進一步被扯低。即是，依家D人拎到一大舊錢出嚟、好有錢，宏觀去睇，業主冇好似 97 – 2003 劈價出貨嘅壓力； 截至2010年12月，香港銀行體系總存款(港元 + 外幣)為HK$8萬億，總貸款為4萬3 – 5千億，淨存款為3萬幾億，係2010年GDP的2倍(2010年GDP為HK$18000億)；1997年，香港銀行體系總貸款/總存款比率為160%；當日資不抵債，今日實力非凡。(註: HKMA 成日講HK$ 貸存比率由70%升到 82%，借貸增長好似好厲害，係有D 誤導，因為HK$ 存款利息為零，好多人將HK$ 轉為AUD、CAD、RMB、Singapore $等)
 
買家負担比率情況
 
依加D人、甚至政府成日用家庭入息中位數去睇樓市，話D樓太貴，負擔唔起，根本就有問題，用埋D得個睇、冇$$買樓嘅塘邊鵝的收入去計算負擔比率，起錯。今日貧富懸殊，窮人越來越多，經濟個大餅越來越大，即係D錢去咗D 上層、中產手裹。但係邊個先去買樓?? 林奮強及林一鳴分別做咗2个超水準嘅分析去解釋買家負担比率
 
林一鳴 http://blog.yahoo.com/drlam/articles/56707/
category/%E6%A8%93%E5%B8%82%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90
 
林奮強 http://www.hkgolden50.org/
report/HKEJ.pdf
 
 
需求方面，上面林奮強黃金50條 link，有佢嘅論點，我覺得寫得好好，有興趣 click 入去睇睇。
 
供應方面，我真係冇禁多分析資料。近幾年，保育意識抬頭，效野公園(占地 > 香港面積 30 – 40%) 不能動、海不能填、有DD特色嘅舊樓不能拆、唔起得屏風樓、新界鄉霸丁權問題、舊樓難收等等，我會覺得政府透過上述方法、岩洞、填海諮詢增大供應，口號大個實際。
 
同埋，香港地產商每個都飽歷風傷，千錘百鍊，佢地個個好疊水，近乎零負債，長實钜少話佢地公司係零負債，新地都係差唔多，信置、恒隆去年高位配完股，儲備充足、唔會好似大陸地產商要劈價出貨、還債。
 
過去1年，政府出SSD，以為可以迫業主長揸、租多D樓出去，壓低租金云云。加埋HKMA 收緊按揭、停加新造按息 (注意係新造按息，唔係原有舊按揭利息，有好大分別)， 使到 D 人冇信心買樓 (唔係冇$$ 買)，個個湧曬去租樓。理論上，如果樓宇供應充足，租盤需求上升租金唔會大幅上升。實際上，因為香港樓宇供應真係十分不足，市民唔買就要租，租金尤其係6月政府收緊樓按後，升得好急。好似沙田第一城尺租由$17升到$21-$22、太古城$27 升到$32-$33等等，亦都反映依加D人真係有$$涯貴租
 
正如上集所述，香港係低負債地方，加埋大陸條水，即係D人有錢，樓價跌、租金升、零存款息率，最終D 錢都會因為租金回報吸引流入樓市，支持樓市唔會大跌。不過要升就需等一D因素引發需求，譬如，QE3大量資金流入香港、阿爺放水等D內企還$$俾香港銀行等等 好多人講歐債會令到港樓大跌云云，其實佢地都係俾股市嚇親，唔好忘記香港冇借大咗，不過歐債對香港一定有D影響，應該唔會係好似97金融風暴致命性的影響，君不見香港自由行成日都1袋2袋，2008年海嘯，過半年轉頭就彈番上去，香港人有阿爺射住唔使禁驚青 wor ，哈哈
 
Last but not least，就係想講利息，要調控樓市，好多人話加息咪得囉，講對一半。要加息，唔該係要加新造按揭，同埋舊按揭利息，即係加 HIBOR 、PRIME rates。今日只加新造按揭，對舊業主根本冇影響、冇出貨壓力，舊業主日咪可以再坐一會，所以地产代理今日食西北風。另一方面，香港本身係好有$$ (本地人好似note 唔到)，要引導資金從樓市撤出嚟，好簡單，加存款利息，試嚇3個月定期有3 – 4 厘息，揾阿水去買樓收租。不過，係偉大聯繫匯率制度下，香港冇咗自己匯率、利率政策 (唔似星架波，可以自己加息、貨幣升值)，HIBOR、PRIME及存款息率唔可以話加就加，要跟美國走，FEDERAL RESERVE 講明2013年中前唔會加息，香港要通過金融手段調控樓市，談何容易??
 
綜合上述因素，真係揾唔到楼价大跌的理由，不過，以目前情況，應該只会轾微调整 5 - 10%左右

這是經濟學「供求定律」的最基本概念，即是在分析需求與價格關係的時候，只應考慮真正會買貨的人，而並非全世界所有人；但很多專家卻容易犯上這基本的錯誤。(林一鳴)

The loan and value ration is much stronger than the impact of SSD and interest rate increment. The underlying reason of sluggish secondard market is the potential buyers who don't have enough capital to pay the down payment.

Loan and Value ratio effect! Not SSD and interest rate.

I expect the Banks will release the loan and value ratio before March 2012. At that time, we will see the quick recovery of secondary market. And the rally starts.

Don't expect that there is a high peak of property price in the first half year. But bottom fishing will be no more!

扑你個街﹐我就係信你班扑街死都唔賣﹐以為租出去都一樣唔錯﹐點知依家周圍d租都跌到扑街﹐比人噤價噤到暈低﹐唔憤氣諗一諗﹐點知仲衰一個禮拜又跌幾舊﹐就係你班諗樣死吹話d租只會升到飛天﹐我小你班扑街﹐唔該你地解釋下同幫我覺卵返掂d租金﹐一係你地搵人用返三個月前既價同我租!!!

其實樓價下跌比樓價上升是安全多於危險
因為當升到一個高位會容易形成泡沫
樓價在短短三年間暴升了七成，現在好多早期置業的市民已拿住了一舊賣樓賺到的錢，等待價跌時再買過
亦即係話，市場已積聚了一定的購買力
在高位入貨o既人佢地計算過晒所承受o既風險，亦即係話就算留價大跌3-5成亦應係屋企穩如泰山地食花生
如果唔係學咩人買樓？學咩人在高位中原指數100.幾 o個陣入貨咁on9？
所以而家樓市下跌1-3成，係好應該好合理好正常同好合符天理循環

而當你地以為樓市會跌到崩潰o既時候，早前賣樓o既購買力又會出黎托番起個市，換樓客可以以一個合理o既價錢細樓換大樓

所以結論係

樓市現階段再跌1-3成係好正常，好應該好合理
而當跌到3成時唔駛悲哀，立即入貨令樓市復甦，搞掂

代理其實只係百業o既其中一行，飲得糖水抵得甜，飲得西米露多間唔中都要飲下廿四味，你估真係個個代理都年薪過百萬咩，你估行行都可以打工打足一世唔駛比人炒唔駛比人凍薪裁員咩！

呢度d樓市好友炒家同湯渾水有樣野唔好，就成日話乜x野地產係百業之母，地產一林就成個香港林, 真係on9！！香港唔係只係靠地產，唔係凈係靠地產代理架！樓市跌少少係到瓜瓜嘈！升個陣你地又印印腳覺得好應份！輸打贏要！

樓市2012必跌！！！！！

Michel de Nostredame passed away on July 2, 1566 aged 62.

From what you write, you like someone use different codes or names here. Same tune same style but only one view of HK property  price, heading to south plus shouting  to the property monopoly and its fans.

In the market dictionary, employment is equivalent to real estate or vice versa.

Probably you don't like to listen any advice, you better go back to your work and focus on your continual improvement and development of career.

Good night fair lady!

Caution : Bullish for Gold in 2012

KPI : 30 US Treasury and US dollar Index

I extract the comments from 黃金研究員肖磊 dated Dec 16, 2011

黃金市場真正的利空因素，是信用貨幣信用價值的抬頭，美元指數的上升有助於提升美元的信用價值，短期內又出現了全球經濟增長速度放緩的預期，中國等國的CPI又出現下降，即是說全球通脹和增長預期雙雙放緩的時候，黃金抵禦通脹的功能將會被削弱，其需求量會受到影響。另一層面，當美國股市的回報率預期增加，債券市場安全係數上升的時候，資金進入這兩個市場的意願就會增強，其他包括黃金在內的資產在短期內受到的擠壓是不可避免的。

對於金價的走勢，肖磊稱，金價牛熊拐點尚未出現，但外匯市場一旦形成趨勢，趨勢延續一個季度是很正常的事情，即是說，黃金市場的階段性走弱行情也有可能維持一個季度。

P.S. 17% gain in US 10 year note, 10% in Gold and 7% in oil as at Dec 31, 2011. Once stop loss at 1,450, it is heading to 900-1000 level. 

只要相信，人點算得過個天, 成日問跌既理由, 其實要跌八成洗乜理由, 要跌時自然會有大把理由。

跌八成

只要相信，人點算得過個天, 成日問跌既理由, 其實要跌九成洗乜理由, 要跌時自然會有大把理由。

如果樓價不跌九成，地產商那有機會賤價買地，

如果樓價不跌九成，那些未上車的人仍然有很多理由指責政府，

跌九成

其實要跌三成洗乜理由, 要跌時自然會有大把理由 (陳小文)

It tells us an universal true that theory and explanation follows the facts, it may not fully explain the fact per se. Take an example; the Sun is Earth’s primary source of light. From ancient time to nowadays, we still try to explain it from physical theory to particle theory and wave theory and now electromagnetic theory.

What is the truth? They cannot be all right or all of them are wrong.

The question is that do you have the power to choose which theory is the best explanation at the right time in the right place.

Like HK property price.

Will you bow down to Markets when the property price will not be falling to 30% or more in the year of the Pig?

如果跌9成,我由100呎換層1000呎住ar

甘你快d跌la..

It can be range trading, most likely in the year of the PIG.

Do you understand?

今日去大X乐吃午饭，天啊，一个餐+1个饮品竟然要41元，97年的时候，是Under 30元啊。

可见大家乐的午餐指数跑赢中原指数成条街。点解火x滾等废材唔叫政府出招打压午餐价格呢？需知道，午餐快餐是平民百姓的必须品。无饭开，会死人，无屋住，最多好像欧美民主大国那些人睡街。

Understood.

Do you agree that a mortgage is a very good saving plan?

Can you save $80,000 this year? Another $80,000 next year and next 10 years?

This is not the perfect solution for retirement but much better than nothing at hand when we get old.

What do you think? My fair lady.

楼上系A货。

不过我加多句，泛民靠得住，豬乸會上樹！

I have other view on the topic of purchasing a flat.

People buy flats for living or investment or showy glory. On second thought, we buy a flat not only for us but for our children and their next generations, for HK and the World. This flat is our legacy for them. This gift provides them a more competitive edge and advantage for them and their next generations. We spend our life for a flat but they can enjoy this reward in exchange of their time and resource.

This flat can provide them a free hand to do what they really want to do things, to pursue their dreams and make the world better.

This flat provide them a better enviornment and nurture their next generations to make their dream hapen.

Property price Up or Down means nothing!