無計,因TT,CY都話要討好基层,廣建房屋.

無奈兄：

你說：「人和：（振英）哥哥身為城大及星島領導層，皆反之」

我說：「連這點小事亦辦不好，何來能力管理香港？？？」

城大的事應該是指他一意孤行要辦的獸醫學院到現在還無疾而終，（可能已胎死腹中）自己卻又辭去主持人之職。責任何在？？？何有承擔之德？？？

星島領導層之事指的可能是自己身為非執行董事，卻對屬下記者指手劃腳，毫無風度可言。最後要勞動大老闆何先生出面善後。要不是大老闆出面澄清，此事傳到國外，真怕老外誤會香港新聞言論自由已死。滋事體大，處理不當，可以好嚴重。

不知無奈兄指的是否這兩件事？

其實，連舊伙計都在網上揭露其瘡疤，為人處事如何？你說呢？？？

To (5)

Good Question: 唔知cy有否在97樓價高峰期时沽清手上物業?八萬五跟住來....

To all and 湯博士

你們知道答案嗎?

鬼佬真系无耻，这里话捐身家，哪里就“巴菲特选定“务农儿子”霍华德作为接班人”。

To 5&6:

我認為,公道地講CY彼時還是持有物業的.每個人的background不一樣. 我們升斗小民很緊張辛苦半世換來這一兩層身家,而CY若是主力不在自置物業上, 可能不太計較這方面的得失. 就好像古代有錢人買官, 有些非為斂財,而是為了有權力做一些讓自己過癮的事.

基本上行政會的成員都有豐厚家底, 不是為薪水打那份工, 是為名譽和理想吧?!反過來看, 這很可怕! 因為他認定自己出發點是不謀私利, 是高尚的, 所作所為必造福群眾. 不願接受批評指教. 這種態度做領導人, 整個被領導的人地物都是他的實驗品. CY一定要做強勢領導, 他認為他能力一流!在他英明領導之下, 必可達烏托邦目標! 自己在香港共產史上千古留名!!

想起就過癮啦!!!

To an individual residential self-use property owners, the risk of being compelled to sell their property at loss is liquidity risk where bank demands further payment of security under the Mortgage.  Given persistently low interest rate, such risk is low. 

First, as long as rental income covers burden of monthly loan repayment in full, owners are well safeguarded from default.  

Secondly, bank demands for further security based on the loan to valuation ratio (LTV).  Lower LTV, lower possibility (risk). (i.e. the suggested valuation of the property under the Valuation Report need to be lower more 90% vs 50%).

Individual owners may maintain sufficient cash/cash equivalent for avoidance liquidity risk.

Thinking of the ideas relating to Dr. Tong’s forthcoming article “愛在深秋”, I would like to share views (regarding residential estates only) below:-

1.      Location:

(+) HK island & KLN areas with development concepts e.g.  港島西沿線，觀塘沿線.

(-) NT without MTR access.

2.      Size:

(+) in view of the latest Gov’s housing policy, medium bigger size (up from (3房1套)) in HK island and KLN

(-) old small property in NT

3.   Scale:

(+) high liquidity, leading estate in the district

(-) low liquidity, single building

P.S:(a) above elements are considered as a while instead of separately; (b) referring the areas of KLN according to the legal definition whereby TKO, Kowloon Bay, Meifoo do not fall within KLN area.

Another interesting idea, a CPA friend of mine happened to tell me one of his approaches to pick property is based on the depreciation of the estate whereby he prefers new development.  I am of different view as new developments nowadays are sold at maximum premium.  Unless the market goes up dramatically after sale (like Hermitage, Latitude, Peak One), the secondary market sold at considerable profit is very unlikely (like Palazzo, Celestial Heights).

Looking forward to Dr. Tong's forthcoming article.

Global Outlook 2012

European

1. Enforceable fiscal rules are a significant step forward. The new treaty has teeth.
2. Some countries such as Greece and Italy will suffer recession due to an excessive embrace of short-term budgetary austerity.
3. Embattled banks curtail their lending.
4. Euro zone : GDP -0.3%
5. UK: uncertainty due to detachment of the new treaty

US

1. No double dip recession but weak recovery
2. Long term weak dollar fosters the US investment starting 2009
3. Normal recovery depends on the housing problem to be fixed.
4. Stock market becomes Safe Haven compared with other countries
5. GDP : 1.3%

BCIR + Japan

1. Keep story short, economy remains in a good shape.
2. Brazil :3.5%, Russia : 3.7%, India :7.8%, China : 8.2% and Japan : 2.2%

Conclusion :

Global Outlook 2012 = Stagnation Year

1. US dollar is in a cyclical bull trend but it cannot be sustainable.
2. US Stock market outperforms other countries. Dow’s upward trend remains unchanged and is going to 14,000 in Aug 2012.
3. Gold will test its key supportive level 1400 once it breaks the supportive level (1675 & 1600) of symmetrical triangle.

HK Property Market

1. The peak hit in Jun 2011. Moment of truth prevails.
2. A tipping point of upwards trend?  Not yet confirmed by the Market.
3. Correction is still in consolidation phase till March 2012.

Some advice to the first-hand property owners

1. It’s a good time for tenants market
2. Check your affordability ratio whether it is below 30% before you jump in the market
3. A property is the tool for hedging the inflation

See you all next year.

P.S. Mr. Shum, The One and AT : thank you for your warming signal