一泒胡言,顛倒是非

8 月 27 日 湯博士篇「星期六故事 - 李小龍遺物拍賣會(2)，我話過南昌站幅地如果唔係「割家」投倒！  
我會捐壹仟銀俾公益金，好彩牙較我贏左，不過我估地產商只係佔政府 20 多億「着數」就真係睇少拒地！ 
           
不過政府呢次係死有餘辜，南昌站地處市區、海景、地鐵上蓋，一兩個站之內大把新樓賣成萬銀！重要係縮水樓！！
           
南昌站幅地好大，就算一波三折、七除八扣，都講緊 260 萬呎樓面，如果唔攪限尺限量，任得地產商自由發揮， 
拒地都會因應市埸胃納，開五 - 七種唔同大細嘅則出來，即係 1、2、3、4 房、復式、特式---------  
           
向南、向海嘅單位當然劃千幾呎 3 - 4 房大單位賺大錢；但向北、向天橋嘅單位都劃埋大則？想個盤賣足拾年？？？
           
可能政府有關房地產嘅官員被反對派迫埋牆角，藥石亂投，唔知上述地區起嘅樓 ，2 房向天橋同 4 房向海嘅單位，
每方呎隨時差幾千銀，就係啲啲差別，令到政府庫房 / 納稅人唔見左再少幾拾億！！！   
           
依家醫得頭來腳反跟，質素好嘅地方都劃來做細單位，咁第時果啲揸住 2 房新界樓嘅業主唔俾多一倍價錢， 
都唔好稔換市區三房或四房，重要係 2 手，因為新盤斷曬層！！！！     
           
政棍依家求仁得仁，但唔知邊個攞走左舊芝士！！！

各位早晨，

我回來了。

離港數天，感覺在個人修為及投資方法亦有所得著，亦暫時將新書訂名為「物業投資A,B,C,D」。

恭祝小業主會成立，不過，似乎有多少暗湧，在網上有人質疑小業主會成立的目的，大家不要氣餒。

我在網上寫文章，亦給人質疑我是大炒家一名，各位回應者是我的馬仔。這點是我對不起大家。其實網上的朋友，我一個也不認識，而紀惠是一個以收租為主的企業，資產總值超過200億，負債不足40億，如何能夠說是炒家？ 就算樓價下跌50%，集團的負債比率亦不足40%，亦非常安全。

我以前說過，不涉及私隱，不人身攻擊，不污言穢語，決不刪除，而網主亦知道這些事，最近有些回應被刪除是因為涉及上述其中之一項，請見諒。網主說，留言雖被刪除，但仍然有記錄。閒話說過，香港近日有太多話題，我盡快寫一些文章，希望各位多作回應。

经历过97的物业投资者都知道政府政策的风险, 如果你们这类炒家早一点投降止赚, 不天天鼓吹散户在高位接你们的火棒, 不把地产霸权的利益和散户捆绑, 政府就不会出重招打压搂市, 钟摆理论是投资市场的金科玉律, 楼价越高, 回调的压力越大, 这才是人间真理.

Total Argee I born in 1977 but i have two 物業 buy my self .

Ps i am not born in a rick family

不是炒家，是收租為主的企業，為何如此著緊樓市下跌？

你的文章漸漸不客觀了。

我係業主，自己住，升跌都無問題，因為唔會賣。

湯博士：

人間正道是滄桑；人間滄桑也是正道啊…

掃把頭----如果湯生無老點壹週刊，拒公司好似揸左唔少寫字樓、舖位、超級豪宅同車位！ 
揾一件中下價住宅都有難度，而上述投資係政府角度黎睇，只係你嗰班有錢人塘水滾塘魚對賭！
同民生關係唔係咁大，所以湯博士好多項目甚致連 SSD 都唔關拒事，你叫拒出貨？出風溼？？

一直有看湯士博文章,對內容亦有同感,亦相信樓價不會大跌,但會調整,我覺得健康調整是必須的,我正期待調整快些來臨,才可入市呢!

正常人希望你公平一點。樓價上升是很多外來因素所致。

購買物業用作收租只是種商業行為。這是用現有金錢換來長期穩定之收入。銀行也是由借貸現金換來短期或長期之利息收入，難道閣下就叫所有銀行做大耳窿嗎？

需明白物價上升有其因素所致。樓價飛升只發生在香港嗎？政府做足應對措施增加供應，只是滿足不斷通漲下之要求。當一個循環來到，太多的供應又會做成更大幅度的 "冧檔"。到時候又有不斷咒罵政府之聲音。

Like other cities in the Globe, there are various people with various potentials.

It is very pleased to find a place to write somethings in the past and about the current issues for cross-sharing & cross-learning. We Don't Know Each Other, including Dr.Tong.

We are severely worried about the continuous developments, non-work benefits & orientations of HKSAR, sources of problems/turbulences, bottlenecks, loopholes and lack of co-ordination in the departments, shouting/fighting/playing in the Legco...

For quick reference, see Benefits Countries in Europe, Wrong Decisions made in the USA !

We believe 1 million homeowners/households who are not jealous of the New HOS & 15000 ~35000 units of Public Housing. It seems to us that they want to clarify/ask what are the Principles, the Master Plans for 15000~35000 units to be built /fitted into the 18 Districts in HK in 2 years period. Are they technically & financially viable ? Are there any sideffects/impacts to the existing residents ?

Solve one problem, Create another / more problem(s)...

Hope to see more for improving HK...

讚同樓上述11, 香港班政棍何止沒有市場觸角,他們連經濟分析力都沒有數據,他們最叻是跟風, 其他各家有咩福利就跟, 結果就唔提, 一味死跟. 我們香港市民唔死都唔得.

為什麼這麼多人載有色眼鏡去看業主? 我們是辛辛苦苦打工儲錢去買自己的物業的.

我們只不過說政黨盲目為選票而帶領基層市民去索取更多福利, 而不是提出方法去助基層市民向上流!

給貧窮人食物只可幫他一時，這是解決不了問題的.　

樓價升跌不會因為我們提提意見而改變, 反而是因為經濟環境決定的!

物極必反, 上帝要你滅亡, 必先領你瘋狂

2008年金融海嘯前, 大家醉在一片香檳聲中, 更多的人更預期恆指上40,000點, 結果不用我多說

今時今日, 一切平靜, 沒有那種要你滅亡的瘋狂, 樓市沒有太大下趺的理由

振英哥上台後會令香港成為全世界最好嘅

「振英福利主義」城市!!!

「振英福利主義」萬歲~~ 振英哥萬歲~~

I LOVE HK!! I LOVE 振英哥~~

湯博士：

說對不起的應該是小弟，是小弟未經你同意，就用你的Blog發起搞業主會，以致你被人罵，萬望博士見諒！當時小弟只是覺得與湯博士理念接近，而且相信博士的氣量，故大膽一試，不料得到多人響應，如今業主會已呼之欲出。

這幾天的籌建過程中，一些支持者認為定位“業主會”有不妥，會給人一種鼓勵炒樓的感覺，應該改為“中產會”，因中產在現時政策下是受害的一群。小弟也曾考慮，但最終認為還是要定位為業主組織，因“中產”並無一個客觀定義，而且“中產”內部利益各異，難以團結。而“業主”的定義相當明確，而且大多數業主都希望“樓市穩定”，目標也明確。所以小弟倡議業主會對外是用一切合法手段維護“樓市穩定”，對內則提供平台實現業主互助。

各位的擔心小弟明白，因為在目前的政治環境下，“業主”形象負面，其實我們何須害怕？湯博士本文已有詳細說明。我們要做的就是重拾業主應有的正面形象！

針唔吉到肉唔知痛，我提議以後所有政府賣地、補地價、厘印、印花、差餉、地稅-----嘅收入， 
           
统一入曬去一個土地基金，以後所有公屋、綜援、醫療及教育----係呢個基金拿錢！土地收入多，就豪啲，
           
否則就睇餸食飯，咁喲人先知啲錢唔係天跌落來，係地下生嘅！！！！！

針唔吉到肉唔知痛，我提議以後所有政府賣地、補地價、厘印、印花、差餉、地稅-----嘅收入，  
           
统一入曬去一個土地基金，以後所有公屋、綜援、醫療及教育----係呢個基金拿錢！土地收入多，就豪啲，
           
否則就睇餸食飯，咁喲人先知啲錢唔係天跌落來，係地下生嘅！！！！！

同意6樓說湯生開始不中立了.

本人極不同意施政報告有關居屋補地價, 年青人岩出來社會工作就想做業主/申請公屋.... 現象.  但

請問樓價在過去一年 (9/2010-8/2011) 間上升20-30%是否正常?

「中立」-----或者可以叫「騎牆」；或者可以叫「無立場」； 
       
咁就再無人睇呢個專欄，手持重貨睇好，沽曬啲貨睇淡，好正路！！！
       
最不該係口不對心，猛唱淡、密密入貨咪重黑人憎！！

As everyone has heard " What goes up must come down " in markets.

The rising prices of real estates actually involve a lot of factors. At least, it indicated that there was no contingency plan monitoring the housing market in Hong  Kong. On the other hand, many citizens/families, did not want to purchase a property for many reasons, even in the attractive/affordable prices between 2003 ~ 2011.

Some still look the local housing market as the local stocks market, by doing profit taking, such as Selling Out & Waiting for the Best Time to Buy Back between 2007 and 2010. Now, they haven't got a house in hand and may need to apply an unit of New HOS/ a new unit of of 15000~35000 units of public house, using each member of the family for each application !!!

Real Estate is a Pillar Industry which involve every sector and every person/family in HK. Refer back to the past in HK, we really don't want to see anyone/any family who have to lose their lives, properties, marriages, and bankruptcy again. Many households had experience in their mortgages/houses under Water. Why ? They legally did Purchasing/Businesses as usual, You did your Operation Twists/ Frequent Switches in markets !!!

Severely speaking, who was the indirect killer ??? 

多謝王先生提醒. 之前睇湯生的文章希望可以學到野, 依家睇到業主同無樓人士兩方對罵, 真係有趣.

睇咗呢篇文章先知道業主(買樓自主)的都屬於是"霸權".

請問湯博士有沒有數據支持你的論點：“這批人很多是2009年初因測量師的言論，估計樓價會大幅下調，有高達50%，而該批人士則急不及待將他們自住的物業出售，計劃在兩、三年後購回，期間賺取30%至40%樓價利潤，這叫甚麼？”

TO: 上善若水兄、仲達兄、王先生

希望你們為小業會出力，我全力支持你們。明天我將會出一篇新文章，「小業主，究竟你們怕甚麼？」。

有部份情節將會反映未來會有小業主向小業主會求救，請準備。

南昌站中標價$4500不到, 僅較將軍澳66A高12%....又一限呎限量地的弊政結果. 附近奧運長沙灣二手即時要減價

中小型單位想再升值近乎不可能.....雖然亦未必要跌得多, 我覺得住宅投資的價值在減退, 而這情況短期內不會改變

香港現在的反智現象源於英國人臨走之前所種下之禍根,如過分的福利政策,縱容的行政手段及言詞等. 還有培養和支持一群打手在97後繼續發揮亂港作用,逼迫特區政府在樓價上再自殺只是最新的一招,但卻是其毒無比!看看美國樓市崩潰帶來的後果便略知一二.

忠告大家這是國際政治的殺著,抓緊水泡吧.只有呀爺有功力反抗,但我們又不信,活該.......

To No. 13,

Agree with your point.  Keep it up! It's a good and logical discussion that may really help others reshaping their thinking.

To No. 15,

I always believe that those politicians are not that stupid.  They understand a lot of things and also clear about the consequences for what they are asking about.  The sole reason for asking all these wrong policies mainly because this will give them votes.  They are just IRRESPONSIBLE AND WITHOUT CONSCIENCE.

Sorry to say that the majority of voters are naive and selfish.  Those policies they asked are sugar coating policies that will really suit the appetite of majority of voters.  "Who cares about the future of HK, let's live it for today first".  That's what voters normally think.

For those politicians, some of them are really LOSERS in this competitive society.  Election gives a platform to prove themselves successful and at the same time a well paid job.  Of course, they will hold on to it and do whatever shit to state alive in election.  But their behaviour is really make us feel sick and the worst of all affecting the core value of HK i.e. hardworking.

To No. 25,

Agree with your point.

愚民兄:

世上是沒有公義和公平的社會,每個人都站在自己的利益本位上,保護自己。

如果你是業主,你以500萬買入一單位,你希望樓價下跌至400萬或300萬嗎?希望成為負資產嗎?

如果你是無樓一族,你當然希望樓價大跌,或政府提供房屋福利。業主和非業主的矛盾是必然的。

至於抄家,他們根本不在乎大升或大跌,他們怕的不升不跌,不能在賣買中賺得利益。升市可以買上,跌市可以沽空,看中賺大錢,看錯市就PK。

現今特首候選人振英哥,對樓市大吹淡風,可能是為民請命,也可能是淡友,從中得益。

申報利益我是業主一族,我不是抄家,只希望樓市平穩,安居安業。

政府協助市民是提供公屋,不是居屋,協助置業不是政府的責任,起公屋的同時,要趕走富户,資源是分配到有需要的人手中,肯定不是富户。

To No. 27,

I think you need to understand that majority of home owners treat their property with 2 perspectives i.e. for living in and as investment.

If the market adjusts slightly, it's only a psychological effect.  If the market slumps by close to 30%, that means all your downpayment vaporised.  The feeling is just like you buy with all your money in one stock and now it drops to HKD0.01per share.  How will you feel??

If the market slumps by more than 30%, it just likes you buy the stock on margin and you have lost all your principal and anytime, the bank or stock firm will call you for the margin.  How will you feel??

Don't blame them for treating their property for 2 purposes.  If you think clearly, you will know that for those angry non-home owners, they think no difference.  Why they are so angry is not because they don't have a home to live, is because they are not on the fast wealth growing track with a property. HK is a small place, it is inevitable that you will keep comparing with your peers, your relatives and someone nearby.  You will just feel bad if your peers are doing much better than you.  You will never think that they actually have a larger liability than you.  To sum up, RED EYE makes they angry and loses patience. 

Frankly speaking, I don't believe our govn't officials are that smart and have the ability to introduce just the right amount of intervention for only a slight adjustment to let those non-homeowners to enter the market. And then, massage the property price level with a healthy growth.  Given the uncertain macroenvironment, it's really dangerous if the govn't introduce a wrong policy. 

Market is like that.  If a trend is formed, it's difficult for any govn't to alter the trend.  Wrong policy in a wrong moment may change the trend. The downward movement trend is formed, it will be disastrous for not only the property price but also the overall economy of HK.  Again, there are no quick fix for the govn't to reengine the property market.  85,000 units was a wrong policy in the wrong moment (during the Asian Crisis) which created numerous negative assets and HK economy was also suffered during 1997 to 2003.

You may think that now what govn't introduced are milder intervention.  But you can never guarantee given poor US economy and debt issue of Europe will affect the economy and market.  Adding up the wrong policy, no one will know what the magnitude is the effect.  So, just let the market determines....

To No. 35,

Can't be more agree.  That's always the conspiracy when Bristish Govn't retreats from their colonies.  What to do! We have our own flesh and blood to execute their conspiracy and mess up our own home.  It is SAD to see all these.

湯博士,你有所不知,你要多了解一下業主會的籌備工作,香港有百萬個業主,業主會搞得好就可以凝聚一股強大力量,否則變成烏合之眾便出現反效果.

我們有一班小業主眼見此業主會即將成立,但擔心群龍無首,如所選領袖班底不夠力,那就前功盡廢,你看看,連"雲兄"如此高質素網友現在都不見了.

湯博士,你必須廣納民意,不可只看表面討好言語,業主會之所以能成立,全因這個網路平台發揮功能,網主居功厥偉,還有你和眾作者文章的回應所帶動,所以由你湯博士你來當會長,才有說服力,才會有更多人參加,而且不會有任何被質疑,這樣至可達到成功!

愚民兄

我同意樓跟股票這兩種東西不是我們的全部投資,我有朋友一生從不參與樓和股票,其實是否參與,是個人選擇。

若果有人在是高價買入,你說他的危機意識太低,但有人在低價不買入,你又可否說他眼光太差,與人無尤。

其實買賣樓宇與保護基層住屋是兩個不同事項,買賣必有風險(包括危機意識及眼光),上落由市場決定。保護基層住屋由公屋處理。

1997是樓市高峰,2003是樓市低谷,當2011是叧高峰,我相信經濟和市場是有周期的,政府是管理秩序和保護基層,不是干預市場。

97年好多人都好像你那样看法，结果楼价一直都跌到03年的时候，经济有无起色。楼价下跌的时候，除了有不少人要吃二手饭，有很多人烧炭，又出现了什么好结果。

楼价上升，最多系班poor guy上街游行，打到地产霸权，回到家有可以吃综援，住公屋，加上不同的补贴。有乜问题。

不要甘天真啦。傻仔。