我想 "歐洲債務危機" 最影響香港樓市的切入點是失業率, 即工作的穩定性, 沒有穩定的工作, 我們不願意買樓...

石鏡泉先生在經濟日報也這樣提過: 美國即使有更多的數據, 最簡單的仍然只看美國人的失業率...

I EXTRACT THE VIEWPOINT OF 曾淵滄 ON Jan 4, 2012 in iMoney. So viewers can compare two different thoughts.

"歐債危機與香港樓市並沒有直接的關係，但是歐債危機導致全球銀行體系不穩定，導致多家國際銀行有破產的可能，其結果是銀行不願隨意借錢出去，深怕借出去收不回來。

銀行主動減少貸款

銀行寧可將收到的存款用來購買美國國債收取可憐的利息，但收緊銀根的結果就是樓市按揭生意萎縮，有多少人買樓有本事一次過付清樓價而不必貸款？銀行削減按揭貸款，置業者去哪裏找錢來買樓？

目前香港的買樓者在向銀行借款時經常面對銀行估價不足的問題。所謂估價不足，實際上就是銀行不肯借出太多的錢供投資者買樓，香港的銀行是在全球金融危機的壓力之下主動減少按揭貸款，中國內地的銀行更是奉中央政府的命令大幅收緊銀根，這也導致來自內地的買家資金出了問題。

簡單的說，2011年下半年樓價下跌的最主要因素是市場缺錢，投資者對2012年負面展望所致。如果市場繼續缺錢，2012年的樓市不容樂觀。"

Here is my view.

Where is the smart money going? It's not easy to tell. We only knew after the facts.

Take a typical private equity firm, Blackstone.

From 2005 to 2007, they put their money in the US, Spain and India recognized that residential real estate prices were exploding in all three countries, far outpacing growth in the income. Later they concluded that real estate bubble was about to burst and began selling. What happened? They sold all real estate assets in the sum of US$60billion.

Now, they spent US$40.7 billion (1/4 of their capital) on real estate investment as at Sept 2011. What does it mean?

Did we hear any news about selling real estate assets from any equity firms or Hedge Funds in Hong Kong Property Market? Not an individual investor, compared with the scale of that kind of Funds, it's nothing.

Did you remember I use the illustration of Newton First Law to explain the market mechanism?

I believe that the consolidation phase of HK property price will be nearly completed before March 2012.

After March, I expect to see a moderate rally. But don't expect to have a new highs, most likely range trading.

P.S. There is no best answer such thing, the worst is no one answers.

Have fun in coming Holidays and healthy life & fruitful year coming ahead.

昨日看到有關金管局與英國人合作的消息, 真的要慨嘆英國人是多麼的心謀遠慮, 當法德每天都在為歐洲債務 "震過貓王"之際, 英國人只須隔岸觀火...

問題是法德的人是否願意勤勞工作到70歲, 去養活一班45歲就想退休的南歐人

正等於一眾勤勞一生的香港小業主, 是否願意去養活一班連儲蓄習慣都沒有的無殼蝸牛一樣

不願意是理所當然, 但 Game Theory 教我們願意對社會好一點....

It is a PARADOX...

各位早晨，

回應站又回復以往熱鬧，如「少林足球」裡的情節，二師兄回來了，三師兄回來了。大師兄雲在青天水在瓶將不日回來。昨日，無奈兄一句「民望基於福利，不能長久的」，可圈可點。

To: Join

你對，是周瑜，不是諸葛亮。

If Europe's debt crisis worsen and induce a credit crunch, Hong Kong's property market will experience a sharp slump in price due to the impossible mortgage with banks. (Just like what happened with the property price in 2008)

But under crisis situation, how will those govn'ts react??  Inject huge amount of liquidity into the market...hot money will come into HK and HK property will experience a V-shaped rebound....

Most analysts fail to predict the action of govn'ts and how it will affect the market....

别人笑我太瘋癲

我笑他人看不穿

不見一城穿三千

繼續享樂醉天天

帶隊遊行軍營潻

工屋居屋每月建

見車公及黃大仙

不勞而獲等食鮮

再看他人看不穿

一城漸已過八千

施永青早前透露，個人首選投資商舖及商廈物業，但卻在過去 3個月先後出貨，除上址外，亦沽出大圍富嘉花園地舖、尖沙嘴新港中心及中環歐陸貿易中心商廈單位，共變現約 2.6億元。

湯Sir，最大好友都出貨，你又有何想法

紀惠集團的湯文亮在我的心中是一個高手，那天看他的一個訪問標題﹕「購買力凝聚，今年樓市先跌後升」。我的心裏納罕﹕為什麼他竟會說出這麼沒水準的評論呢？細看內文，才知我給標題誤導了。

他的說法是，很多人預測樓市下跌10%至15%，但這只能說是調整，不能說是下跌。他說現在的購買力綑綁了很久，當政府決定放寬按揭時，把購買力釋放了，所以會突然出現大批買家，這叫做「呃你落搭」現象。

就我所知，照所有有關房地產的實證研究，樓市一旦下跌，至少就是三至五年。這應該是不會錯的理論了。

近日多名投資者先後沽貨，其中紀惠集團副主席廖偉麟，新近就以2272萬元，連租約沽出灣仔天樂廣場33樓全層，涉及面積約3496方呎，呎價6500元

上年沽價錢仲靚，為何遲了？

歐債危機與三年前美國次按危機一樣，標誌着歐美長期以來靠過度借貸而消費的模式，已經走到盡頭。

悲觀的推論如下：

歐美消費減少，對經濟依靠出口的國家和地區，例如東亞諸國，包括中國、香港等影響負面。

由此也可推論東亞各國經濟放緩，對原材料的需求也會下降，也就是對澳洲、巴西等原材料出口國家的經濟有負面影響。

也可推論，世界經濟會因歐美消費減少而放緩，對能源的需求會降低，即是對中東、俄羅斯等產油大國有負面影響。

還有就是現今世界資金收放的週期縮短、幅度加大，短期內大量資金的流出都會倍增上述的負面效應。

上述推論合乎邏輯，也自圓其說。但是政經事件絕不是像自然科學那樣可準確量度，一個偶然的事件，足以打破整個方向。

世事無常，穩健投資、分散風險，只有小心才能駛得萬年船！

200亿应该是市值，我想回报率应该用公司的投资金来计算，不知对不对？

各位早晨，

大家對物業投資者沽售一些物業，例如施生沽舖，非常敏感。其實亦毋需大驚小怪，物業投資者一樣是生意人，進攻退守因人而異。我只能說物業投資者沽售物業並不是財政緊絀，不同於海嘯期間的情況，只是儲足彈藥迎接下一個升浪，請參閱「逃出海嘯篇之張巡殺妄饗三軍」。

仲達、王先生是否太忙？很少回應。DT，我們需要你的國際視野，請多發言，多謝。

歐債危機與三年前美國次按危機一樣，標誌着歐美長期以來靠過度借貸而消費的模式，已經走到盡頭。

What is subprime?

Banks have a guideline for borrowers. We call this prime lending.

If your credit status doesn’t meet the requirement, Banks will not lend you the money.

Subprime lending is making loans to borrowers who do not qualify for the best market interest rates because of their deficient credit history. Self-employed person may apply for subprime lending at the expense of higher interest rate. Or borrowers may have previous debt or financial problems for large purchase of property. Subprime lending takes higher risk due to late payments or failure to pay and even foreclosures may result. The subprime lending was 9% in 1996 and flew to 21% in 2004. The story started!

How the subprime crisis started?

The money game, namely mortgage-backed securities (MBS) kicked off. They sold this package to investors because of high interest rate return appetite. No one noticed the high risk or neglected it because of window dressing rating.

Property owners were greedy for success! Property owners increased their assets value in the housing bubble. Then they refinance their properties with lower interest rates and take out second mortgages against the added value to use the funds for consumer spending. Between 1997 and 2006, American home prices increased by 124%.

No problem forever? Easy credit plus housing prices kept going to the sky. More borrowers jumped the subprime lending boat.

The play has a very complicated plot.

The Wall Street Financial Guru played money game. Sub-prime debts were repackaged by banks and trading houses into attractive-looking investment securities that were snapped up by banks, traders and hedge funds on the US, European and Asian markets.

It was the morning time. Bubbles burst!

The market suddenly found their investments become a white paper, near-valueless. Banks immediately kept tight control their credit line to each other.  As a result, ordinary healthy businesses across the world with no direct connection to US sub-prime suddenly started facing difficulties for their credit lines due to the banks’ unwillingness to lend them money.

No money No talk, companies folded up. As you knew, Lehman Brothers story began.

What a lesson learnt!

Do you think it is a different story?

DT：好简单的总结，民主福利国家的税制福利的对应是：福利开支==中产交税支出。当福利不断上升，中产交税的burden会越来越重，最终令经济崩溃。欧美好像跑不出这条死路。日本老人家叹世界，年轻人不是失业，就是做到死死下。迷失了数十年。

那些福利棍，从来都不敢面对这个问题。

BY the way, 香港基层福利肯定不会比民主台湾的福利差。

How you define 中产?

被排除在福利之外的人，其实就是从家庭收入从2万到8万左右的香港人。你一定会说他们在怎样说也是基层啊，问题是为什么基层却被福利排除在外。所以应该叫穷中产。

低过2万，一般会有各种名目的福利支持。

What is the middle class?

The middle class is the broad group of people between work class and upper class.

The middle class is any class of people neither the poor nor the rich.

The middle class is any class of people in the middle of a societal hierarchy.

How to measure?

The middle class has an owner-occupied property.

The middle class has a professional occupation.

The middle class has a tertiary education.

Or all of above.

Does it make sense?

福利开支==中产交税支出。当福利不断上升，中产交税的burden会越来越重，最终令经济崩溃。

Now, how you define the middle class? It can affect the above statement.

Do you agree?

中产这个definition一直都有不同的看法，比如，政府认为家庭over 2 万就是中产，我都偏向政府的definition，因为月人over 2万的，基本被排除在福利意外。而事实上月入2万的家庭，基本上就是位置在月入中位数上。

既然月入2万的家庭，生活那么清苦，为什么还叫中产，其实就是中产下流化的现象。

Compared 5 & 10 years.

What do you see the trend? What is your conclusion 中产下流化的现象?

中產難定義

DT兄及向泛民說不兄，兩位都學識淵博，與雲兄、無奈兄、上善兄、仲達兄、王先生等一眾高手並列，先說聲佩服。

30樓DT兄對中產的定義，上半段正確，下半段則有保留：

The middle class has an owner-occupied property.

The middle class has a professional occupation.

The middle class has a tertiary education.

此三句為西方人對中產的定義，在香港並不完全適用，例如沈大師社會地位不凡，收入也應頗高，卻從不買樓---印象中，80後銀行從業員兄也曾說身邊有不少這類人。可以說，他們肯定是中產，卻無自置(owner-occupied)居所。

至於professional occupation也很難判斷，眾所周知很多公務員也月入超過2萬，符合政府對中產的定義，但職位卻不一定高，更難以形容為專業，尤其是港英前朝遺臣(絕無貶意)。

關於tertiary education，現在很多大學生入職月薪只有8000元(更少我都聽過)，反而肯博肯捱的話，中五畢業做SALES月入隨時仲高！

因此，中產應以月薪加投資收入計算，其他準則難以比較和作準。

When we talk about an subject, we need to define it well otherwise we have no common ground for discussion.

How to measure?

1. The middle class has an owner-occupied property.

We can modify this by the middle class has the financial ability to have an owner-occupied property. How to quantify it? By generalization , majority of middle class has an owner-occupied property.

2. The middle class has a professional occupation.

中產應以月薪加投資收入計算，其他準則難以比較和作準

Tell me how much, please?

There is no 高手 such thing.

Everyone is a teacher. Everyone is a learner.

Please don't label it. I am an ordinary person.

得到高手DT即時回應，受寵若驚！

我無詳細數據定義中產的月薪加投資收入，只可引用政府的定義：每月2至8萬。

至於中產有否下流的問題，還望DT兄及向泛民說不兄指教。

If we plot the line chart based on data from 1996 to 2006, we do not see any incremental change in the shape or any shift to other sides. No middle class downstreams to the poor side. You can also see the proportion between less $20k and above 20k almost the same 55% vs 45%. However, the poor more poor and the rich more rich phenomenon occurs. More serious on the poor side, it become an upward trend.

Less than $8,000 are 16.5% in 1996, 18.2% in 2001, 21.3% in 2006 respectively.

Conclusion : 中产下流化的现象 No validation yet as at 2006.

What is your current view of HSI?

Going to 12,000? Any adjustment or remain unchanged?

DT:  To really tell whether there is 中产下流化的现象, we should adjust the census salary data with to inflation and then compare the % distribution (but we will not have the data).  I think the adjusted data would yield a much more serious phenomena of increased 贫富差距 in HK.   Also, salary ranges such as 60-80K, 80K-100K, and >100K household income would also be very revealing.

To : 70後銀行從業員

I concur your saying. As you say, we don't have this data at hand. If this phenomena occurs, we can feel and taste it around our friends. 

What is your observation? Because I don't have such feeling. But I do feel the poor more poor, hard to earn a living! Sigh!

To: 雲在青天水在瓶

樓市與股市背馳

Please explain in details. Property up and HSI down or vice versa.

Do you still hold HSI going to 12,000? View remains unchanged or needs to make adjustment?

金融危機和債務危機, 通常對股市的影響較大, 對樓市的影響較小, 這是由各自不同的交易系統所決定的. 交易系統的不同, 令成交量和流動性產生很大差異, 也就會使股市和樓市在價格上的反映出現反差. 如08年金融風暴, 股市低位較07年的高位下跌了6成6, 而樓市所受的影響就低得多, 只跌了2成3.  

圖表所見, 恆指12000的可能性仍然存在, 只有當指數上破自07年以來的下降軌阻力線(現約為22800), 才可排除這一可能, 這是按圖索驥得出來的推測. 至於是否成立, 下面的支持位看16500.

To : 無奈

I share your point of view to maintain the standard of living is harder than in the old days.

Can we define the middle class in this way?

People do not live from hand to mouth as the poor do. And they have a reasonable amount of discretionary income to buy consumer goods for improving their quality of life.

In this sense, 中产下流化的现象 occurs here. Also it happens in the Mainland China but in the opposite direction.