多謝各位昨夜連番激勵，但發覺其中有人誤會我指一位女士是歷史上最不孝的人。其實我所指的是昨天專欄歷史人物 – 吳起。上善若水兄亦早已導破，經過一晚思考，有感市況反覆不定，更加要不偏不倚道出真正情況，待各位自己分析，所以我會繼續寫，請多多支持。現送上白居易之《慈鳥夜啼》，請感受一下。

慈烏失其母，啞啞吐哀音，

畫夜不飛去，經年守故林。

夜夜夜半啼，聞者為沾襟；

聲中如告訴，未盡反哺心。

百鳥豈無母，爾獨哀怨深？

應是母慈重，使爾悲不任。

昔有吳起者，母歿喪不臨，

嗟哉斯徒輩，其心不如禽！

慈烏復慈烏，鳥中之曾參。

能繼續看到湯生的文章，是我輩之福。在此股市風雨飄搖之際，心中仍有些少慰藉。

所謂百行考為先。父母縱使如何的不合吾心，養大我等也殊非易事。前天自已女兒發燒，我也徹夜難眠。此之為天下父母心。人生最大的悲哀無過於「樹欲靜而風不息，子欲養而親不在。」

湯生只要你細心看看支持你者的文彩，對比一下攻擊你者的文筆，便一切盡在不言中。我非夜郎自大，只是家父常言道:「沒錢你裝不來，不識字你也扮不來」並以此鼓勵我眾兄弟姊妹勤勉向上。

各位綱友，「慎言」重要，但「自重」更重要。需知「人與禽獸也者幾希」。

美國信用評級遭下調, 投資市場懮慮經濟再次衰退, 引發全球股市大跌多日, 香港也不能幸免. 股市大跌會影響樓市也大跌嗎? 這是不少人關心的問題.

要判斷樓市會否下跌, 首先要搞清楚之前樓價上升的主要原因, 一是低利率; 二是量化寬鬆; 三是租金水平上升.

其實, 低利率和量化寬鬆是同一個問題.  “評級” 事件之後, 我們看到短債利率有波動, 但10年期長債息率繼續向下, 最新報2.34%(8月9日11:00am). 這說明投資市場對QE3的推行是有預期的. 近日油價等大宗商品的價格下跌, 預示美國通脹率短期有機會受控, 維持在較低水平; 金融市場的大幅波動, 表明市場對經濟衰退的擔憂. 從陰謀論角度來說, 或許這都是美國為推行QE3而刻意制造出來的環境效果. 有了這樣的條件, 推行QE3就順理成章了.

香港的租金水平仍在繼續上升, 2010年租金升幅22%, 2011年上半年, 美聯租金指數又上升12.6%. 今日公布的7月份中國通脹率, 達6.5%, 再創近年新高. 香港在輸入型通脹影響下, 租金水平只會高不會低.

在經過2008年金融海嘯之後, 不少人已對金融投資產品失卻信心. 大眾對股市等高風險投資的參與程度下降. 所以, 這一次股災的傷害程度, 相對也較低. 傷害不大, 實力尤存, 對實物資產價格的支持仍強.

因此, 環球股市下跌, 並未改變樓市的基本面, 對樓市的影響多數是心理上的, 當消化了持貨力不足和定力不夠的物業投資者的放盘後, 樓市無疑會更上一層樓.

Over 20 years, Alan G already told the world that they had a money printing machine which is still working there !   See Japan and Europe, more machines are running now ! Not only for that, more rating machines and high frequency machines are fighting with hugh debts !

Mom said we should put our money in houses and gold ! Right now, that is true.

Fear is good !

要解決現時美國失業率高企,財政赤字嚴重,負債過高,不外乎兩種主流方案.一.削減開支,增加稅收.二.利用財技購買美債,例如聯"豬焗",購買美債,在若干年後"註銷"所持有的欠債.但其他國家會願意與"狼"共舞嗎?失去信心的"菊花與劍國"日本是會的,中國和俄羅斯卻會拒絕同美帝癲!歐洲則自身難保,東南亞各有難言之隱,巴西要應付高通賬及奧運世界盃...

因此,未來的情況是充滿變數的...沒有人能作出準確的預測...因為美國已有多年未失去AAA主權信貸評級,而其財赤亦是空前嚴重的..即使是超前經濟學研究者,亦未必能準確預測,或短期作出方向性的預測.

業主多會繼續看好樓市罷...但作為投資者..則要控制風險,管理風險..

因此.本人希望全面看好之投資者,要懂得持續生存的投資之道。

大師之分柝,是以為樓股會背馳,看多年情況,股樓也是相依而行,今日的股市,明日的樓市,樓市未來一定會調整,而且會由一手樓帶起,美國,歐洲也要節省開支,美元下跌,將來資金也會留亞洲,對樓市有支持,香港樓價不會大跌15%又15%以下.

湯博士及各網友好,

本人將自置物業放租, 租金为$16,000 (每月供樓为$10,000左右) 

現租住8,000村屋. 請问這短期抗通脹方法好嗎?

或者應什麼時候放賣自置物業或長楂?

請教教在下 (因看不清後市)

萬分感激

Now Gold is trading around $1700 USD/oz which is  higher than $35USD per oz !

According to low economy growths in Japan, USA, and Europe, with low inflation rates, near to zero interest rates, and high unemployment rates, continuous tax rebates & benefits to people, non-stop printing money & borrowing, houses should be valuable in life.

Teachers are right!  Prices are subject to Supply & Demand !

好好地的一個地產網，用是用來交流對樓市的看法，寫者與看者皆有不同的意見，大家互相交流資訊，互相討論，本來是各不相干，只要不涉及人身攻擊，只要是發表對樓市的看法本是無可妥。

但，可惜卻將本意歪曲成只有寫者喜歡的就全單接收，稍一有不同意見者，只是輕微的不同意見，卻即時要大吵大鬧？

要大起封殺之門，勢要殺過片甲不留，將異者掃於戰場？

這是我們作為閱者想要看到的嗎？

這是一個和平氣氛的討論平台嗎？

這是寫者想要看到的畫面嗎？

是我們作者閱者敢言的地方嗎？

只管要奉承的話，稍一逆意就大開中門發炮大罵一場，即時找來支持者與異見者去併過您死我活，這是現今作為資訊流通的網上平台要預見到的嗎？

這是一個良好氛圍的平台可以讓不擔驚受怕去說出真話嗎？

要只得人追捧卻不得人說自己的意見，那麼比起四人幫時代是否更可怕！

最近不幸諸死者已經諸得沒點空間可活，她的痛苦這是我們作為成熟的人可要見到的場口嗎？

就算是寫樓市的普遍一個作者"對讀者在未了解太深他的說話前，太過武斷的負話"，也對網友不負責任，"公信力全失，也可以將一夜間突然間消失得無影無蹤，絕對可以說引以為鑒。"

誰在妖言惑眾？誰在煽風點火，誰有弄人與人間的分化，

我亦有多少不滿意。

不同人、不同學歷、不同見解、不同經歷，只要持著正面或負面去理解文章，得出的結論可以是完全的不一樣，就好似:"所以有網友反而欣賞大師，說是明燈。"

在解讀網友說的"明燈"這詞是，究竟是指讚或彈？

難怪有人會因人寫了什麼而激昂萬分，勢要劈死他人非不可！

可悲、可悲！

一朝剷除異已

樂透心靈

懶理人家是活還是哭

自己無良

卻說別人更無良

自求多福

最好不要進言

非巴不得將逆耳者一朝剷除

他人就心樂透

20樓21樓:

我才是真正的ABC君，請不要盜用我的綱名。否則我只能改名稱。我只能改成ABC君。

欲知者，欲知的，問他。卻反指您對人不好，指您無需要關懷及無需要知道該知的事？這種一竹嵩打死一蟻窩，將自己無料到卻能收藏得瘋瘋癲癲，絕頂！

何需著緊您的"綱名"？您連字都打錯，是"網名"而不是"大綱""威而綱"。簡單一個網上虛疑的名，何需如此著急，您有拿去註冊嗎？人人都可以叫ABC，是您的專利嗎？一笑置之啦！朋友，您這樣好快會死呀...不要正中人懷，這兒早已經失去了一個良好的探討有關樓市的平台了。人已經變得您喻我咋，非得您一朝亡，網上名字是身外物，何需如此介懷呢！朋友，放開點啦！

A wise man and a stupid woman passed away and they met in the heaven.

The stupid woman tells the wise man, “Looking back, I don’t have much to regret but only a thing.” The wise man asked her, “What is it?” In reply, she said to him, “I talk too much and even I ask my enemy to kill me. So I am here.”

Out of her curiosity, she asked the wise man, “How about you?” He told her that I didn’t have much to regret but only a thing. “What is it?” the stupid woman looked at him seriously.  In response, he says “Looking back, I have this to regret. I keep silent until my wife passes away that I do not tell her a thing.” “What is it?” the stupid woman keeps asking. In reply, the wise man said, “I never tell her that I love her. So I come here to find her and I tell her……I am sorry!”

The stupid woman laughed.  “What are you laughing?” the wise man asked her angrily. She replied to him wisely, “Until now and here, you don’t tell your wife that you love her!” 

我支持筆者的文章,很有深度, 亦相信筆者的為人不像泛民的if you are not with me, you are against me. 其實這裡不是駡戰的地方, 是分享意見的地方, 同意不同意也只是個人的想法, 而且, 也不是收錢的, 喜歡就來, 不喜歡就走, 完全不至於要對筆者人身攻擊, 網友又不是嫁了給筆者, 完全沒必要呀!

建議: 還是留點氣去面對梁家傑, 長毛之流的專業演員, 全香港人都在比錢他們做戲, 係時候要退票啦

哈哈!! 太好了. 股票向下, 要慶祝

明天樓市向下, 要大大大大慶祝

哈哈!! 太好了. 股票向下, 要慶祝

明天樓市向下, 要大大大大慶祝

回２５樓：

爾虞我詐。相信「您喻我咋」是手民之誤吧！若非那些無聊人在此糾纏不休，這裡是很好的溝通樓市信息平台。山就算那些無聊人繼續糾纏，明智人亦不肖一看。

試看黃金價格勁升，商品價格隨之，樓市就算不升，也應隨通脹而變。若有能力供樓，或租金足以供樓，我個人認為可以穩坐釣漁船，並非「您喻我咋」。

回抗通胀:美國這次債務上限危機,正好反映了美國削債的能力,很多人都認為美國短期內沒能力加息,由於前境前所未有的不明朗,低息環境的不正常,很多業主都很很"量力而為,加上額外印花稅,令人感覺到賣左買唔翻,所以有樓在身的你,不要有任何搞作好了."MONEY IS KING BUT MONEY IS USD"

Hi No.15),

In reply to your query, I think you made a good choice & approach to rent it out for 16K & less the mortgage 10K & rent for village house 8K, you just have to put in 2K.  Of couse if you are at a saving stage(means you don't have much cash, properties, fixed deposits, funds, stocks(oh, no.....)that could pay off your apartment.  That could be a good approach.

I always have a belief:if it's your own apartment(self-use), your target is not about the ups & downs but when you could pay it off early.  Our 1st apartment we target to pay back in 10 years but manage to do it in 7 years.  Then life is super easy & you can easily think about having another one.

Of course it has alot to do with your bullets at hand.  I tell you nowadays the landlords are taking more conservative approach, if you jump off the car, you don't know when you're getting the next?  I expect abit downside already in the properties market, since I have five apartments & I only live in one, so risk is well balanced(all others I got a reasonable return on rent I can pay back the mortgage)  Why do I have to sell then???

聯儲局話明2年內唔加息,樓市點會冧?

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Tuesday expressed much more concern about the economic outlook and said it would hold interest rates at ultra-low levels “at least” through mid-2013, the first time it’s put a timeframe on the duration.

The action brought strong dissent, as Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser objected to the specific time reference instead of the old language of holding rates low for “an extended period of time.”

The last time there were three dissents was in November 1992 under former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

The current chief, Ben Bernanke, led seven voters in favor of the decision, which came as the central bank said it expects a much slower pace of recovery than what it anticipated during the last meeting in late June.

THE FED | Expanded Fed coverage

Click to Play

Risks of recession rising
Three former top officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve, including Donald Kohn, tell WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath that the chances of a double-dip recession have risen to between 20% and 40%.

Low rates to stay through at least mid-2013
The Federal Reserve surprised markets -- and encountered three 'no' votes -- by saying it would stay on hold until mid-2013 at least. The move is designed to convince markets that it has no plans to exit its accommodative policy
• Text of FOMC statement

CALENDARS AND COLUMNS
• U.S. economic calendar | Global calendar
• Market Snapshot | Bond Report | Currencies
• Sign up for breaking-news alerts by email

/conga/story/misc/fed.html 161552

“The FOMC now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually” from the July level of 9.1%, the statement said.

“Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased,” the statement said.

The Fed also indicated that it “discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a strong economic outlook recovery in a context of price stability” and said it’s prepared to employ the tools as appropriate. That could mean buying more bonds, or lengthening the duration of the debt it holds, Bernanke told Congress in July.

Morning AIA and Anggie T,

Many Thx for your valuable advise.

BTW, what do you think/opinion the HK property market in 2013?  

Look forward to hearing from you. Thx Thx

36楼，来说是非者，必是是非人。谷女士和他的友人点知道你的电话，你又点知道骚扰你的电话就是谷女士和他的友人。如果你认为是他们，我建议你马上报警处理。

我们不怕讨论，因为相信群众的眼睛是雪亮的。在这个讨论区，除了支持泛民班废青，大部分人都是有知识的。但是不知道你为什么害怕。

Hi 無奈, thanks for your good advice.

Here is another story.

The Right guy, the Wrong guy and the Wise man.

The Wise man tells the Right guy and the Wrong guy that the door to the Heaven is left and the door to the Hell is right.

Both guys died and met in the Hell.

To his surprise the Wrong guy asked the Right guy, “How come you will be here?” In reply, he told the Wrong guy, “Because I listen to the Wise man.”  He stared at him dubiously, “What does he really say?”  Hanging off his shoulder the Right guy said, “If you don’t go to the Hell, who else?” In return, he asked him, “How about you? Why don’t you listen to the Wise man?” He looked at him sadly and said, “I do listen to the Wise man.” He smiled at him and said, “The door to the Heaven is left. Don’t you know what is left from right?”  In reply, he responded, “The Wise man tells me that if you don’t know left from right, just follow the Right guy.”

我地從來做事都是為香港好, 希望大家多D了解, 我們要:

1. 停止所有大型建設, 不要浪費大家的錢, 政府的錢都是用在福利上就最好啦.
2. 菲人住海景公屋, 到時我們會盡量把菲律賓人人吸引來香港, 到有1-2百萬菲人是, 本黨一定可以成為全港最大黨, 更大做福香港
3. 我們會為香港菲人拿28元的最低工資, 到時菲人每月收入12000, 才回到是正常人的收入, 我們要堅持人權, 不惜犧牲一切, 人權萬歲!
4. 下一步我們會為印人, 泰人, 全世界的人, 只要是有需要, 沒房住, 沒飯吃的, 都吸引來香港, 香港就可以成為全世界最人道的城市, 到時沒有人不知道有香港啦
5. 外來和本地投資都是霸權主義, 我們會用法律把他們踢走, 利用法律係我地強項, 叫佢地D市中心海景樓比我們不用工作D大學畢業生住
6. 加強在海景私樓前面公屋, 我們要所有人都公平, 有10萬收入和不用工作的都應該要有同一個海景樓住

而家先講咁多, 遲D再講多D本黨為香港好的方法比你地知, 等大家唔好誤會我地!
家傑

本人是一名小市民，為求退休後生活無憂，早於02年起便積極投資。本人的投資渠道無非兩種：物業與股票。本人屬於保守型，物業方面為長線收租，股票方面只選優質股。

總結多年投資心得，派成績表，物業方面，除了租金收益外，物業的資產價格已升值數以倍計。而股票方面，雖則本人從不買垃圾股，但總是呢只賺，果只蝕，一期贏，一期輸，此長彼消。多年來雖不至於賠本，但頂多只是打個平手，輸少當贏，真是嘥心機挨眼訓。尤其近年股災頻繁，更是令人驚心動魄，枕食不安。因此，本人是支持樓市的，因為它是比較穩陣的投資。雖說買金買銀同樣可以抗通漲，但在我眼中，金銀睇得唔食得。而物業就進可攻退可守，就算下跌，只要你撐得住，仍有租金收入，亦可以收回自用。至於股票更不用說，隨時渣都無。

以上愚見，純屬個人觀點，對與否，見仁見智，共勉之！

To 無奈

I share your viewpoint. Here is my favorite story. Hope everyone likes it.

The son tells his mother that I know more than you now. His mother draws two circles, one small one big. She replies to his son, “The small circle is what I know; the bigger one is what you know. Outside the small and big circle is what we don’t know!”