The fourth quarter is coming in a flash, and the transaction prices of the first and second-hand properties continue to decline due to the stop-go situation. At present, the public hopes that the FED (Federation Reserve Broad) will reduce interest rate after September and Hong Kong follow suit. Consequently, the sluggish property market will rebound from the rock bottom. In the best scenario, the optimistic sentiment will return to the market as it was after the withdrawal of the cooling measures in March. The property market has a short-term surge period. At this moment, it is hard to predict whether the market will rebound again in September after the interest rate cut.
If interest rate cuts are a positive factor for the property market, the unemployment rate is a great threat to the downturn market. A recent survey conducted by a local organization revealed the unemployment rate of retailing and catering industries was as high as twenty percent, followed by the construction industry with a rate of sixteen percent. The unemployment rate of these industries was significantly higher than the average unemployment rate of three percent announced by the government.
If we took a close look at the current business environment, the unemployment rate data of the private institutions was more 
obviously credible. For the first time in forty years, there are more than ten vacant street shops in the bustling intersection of Argyle Street and Nathan Road in Mong Kok. These hard trues make no one will believes that this generation is a heyday of Hong Kong.
Through the top talent pass scheme, there were about fifty- six thousand applicants arriving in Hong Kong. A survey conducted by media organization disclosed half of these professionals are still unemployed. These hard data clearly indicated that the employment situation in Hong Kong is far from satisfactory.
At the time of the Asian financial crisis in 2003, the unemployment rate was 8.6 percent. Nowadays, it maintains at approximately 3 percent for a period of time. According to the current trend, it is estimated that for every one percent additional unemployment rate, property prices will fall by five percent, and if the current unemployment rate raises to 8 percent, property prices will fall by another twenty-five percent.
Unless Hong Kong's interest rate cut after September can reverse the upward trend in the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate hike will eventually drag down property prices. If the unemployment rate rises by 1.5 to 2 percent per year from next year, it will raise to 8 per cent within two to three years.
Even if the interest rate is really cut after September, it will be difficult for the property market to rebound significantly for two months as it was in March. If there is a small rebound, it is highly probable that it will end within a month. So, if anyone wants to take a chance to enter the market to catch the rebound, please take seriously second thought before acting.
