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The zombie investors are waiting for the judgment day

Damon Ho

August is ending; the market sentiment is still deteriorating. The sales volumes of first-hand property keep on slipping. Moreover, the transactions of the top ten housing estate are also exceptionally low. The second-hand property index falls consecutively for six weeks. The public is eager to anticipate the FED's (Federal Reserve Broad) rate-cutting after September. Then, Hong Kong will follow to reduce the rate, and it stimulates the property market to rebound. In March, the Government abolished all the cooling measures and pushed up the transactions and prices a little bit for a while. Will this public wish come true? If not, the property prices will fall again as it was in March.

The market has been falling for three years, the transactions prices of shops and commercial buildings have plummeted more than sixty percent, which is far higher than the decline of twenty-seven percent of the residential properties. The cherished properties of billionaires declined significantly. Their painful experiences are much more than the middle-class to suffer.

In the last three years’ downturn market, a general middle-class would suffer two to three million HK dollars losses in his own property, plus another one million losses in security market. The total loss would be between three to four million. It owned thirty to thirty-five percent of their total assets.

The typical middle-class is not very concerned with the price fluctuation of property. They usually think that the lower valuation of their property does not affect their daily life. Moreover, the unemployment rate is only three percent, and it enhances their confidence to have jobs to pay back the property mortgage. 

Although the property price has been declining to thirty percent. They do not feel pain as their counterparts who suffered seventy percent loss in their properties in 2003. In those days, the unemployment rate was 8.6 percent. The jobless middle-classes had to eat the leftover foods in restaurants. A small portion of them chose a radical method to terminate themselves.

The investors, who hold a large number of shops and commercial premises, have a diverse perspective on the future. They used to utilize high leveraged lending to purchase the investment properties. Until now, the valuation of their premises has decreased by half from the original value. They lose all of their initial funding. Furthermore, their balance sheet accounts become red. These zombie investors have nothing to do to save them from this turmoil.

There are no buyers who are interested in purchasing what these riches hold. They cannot even lease out these premises. Their monthly payment is beyond their capability to repay. The banks realize these powerful turbulence and call loan quickly.

Seventy percent of these billionaires have been calling loans by banks. It may be that half of these billionaires will eventually become zombie investors. Those who can survive may suffer sixty percent loss of their total assets. Strictly speaking, they are lining up to go bankrupt.

 

 
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