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The recovery of second-hand of property is confined by the low-priced stocks of new flats

Damon Ho

Since the government's full withdrawal of spicy measures, the market sentiment has changed quickly, buyers' confidence has been increasing, and the number of new buyers has also rebounded significantly. Although the atmosphere has been warming up, but the developers must clear the pile-up of the inventories in near future, so they inevitably set the new flats’ selling price, which are competitive in the second -hand property market in same district, to attract the potential buyers. Obviously, the immediate effect of scraping the spicy measures is only to raise the sales volume but not the price.

On the day of the announcement of the withdrawal of the spicy measures, the stock prices of property development and agency firm rebounded immediately, but its rising had narrowed before the trading hours ended. In the past few days, the Hang Seng Index had risen above 16000 points, and yet it was unable to reach 17000 points. The stocks’ prices of leading real estate stocks rose slightly, and they did not last long. The stock market's performance reflected the financial industry's lack of confidence to the effect of new policy on the property stocks. It also doubted that the property stocks’ profits will not be significantly changed due the increase in transaction volume.

The Hang Seng Index surged from a recent low of 14,900 points on January 22, to the highest level of 16,600 points on February 28. Until now, the index is in a state of stagnation. If the index does not pass through the 17000 points, it is overly confident to predict that the property price will return to the upward trend.

In response to the developers' low-priced approach, the landlords of second-hand properties are forced to reduce their asking prices or even to the prices that are lowered to the costing. To pessimistic owners, it may be the last chance for them to sell their properties. For optimistic investors, the positive outcome of the withdrawal of spicy measures is emerging, they are cautious to return to the property investment market. 

Will the property market rise again? It must examine the fundamental local economy. Hong Kong fiscal deficit will last for years. Furthermore, the new trend of consumption pattern in northern China has a negative impact on the local retailing and food & Beverage industries. Indeed, the prolonged weakness of the stock market and the fading foreign direct investment have also caused damage to the economy. It is no doubt that the local business environment is in dire situation. Even if you are optimistic about the market outlook, the investment focus should also be focused on small and medium-sized of residential units. Most importantly, it is better to ignore the industrial, commercial, and shops properties.

 
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1. Scrap cooling measures attract foreign buyers 2024-03-10 10:01:15

Hong Kong’s move to scrap all cooling measures on housing could help boost the city’s appeal to wealthy foreign homebuyers, according to Knight Frank.

To support the lacklustre residential market, the government in its budget speech on 28 February cancelled all the demand-side tightening measures for residential properties, which meant non-permanent residents would pay the same stamp duty rate as resident buyers of up to 4.25%. Sellers are also now free to sell assets at any time without incurring an extra 10% stamp duty.

“The recent budget announcement is particularly beneficial for international buyers, as they will no longer face additional financial burdens when purchasing residential properties, potentially enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong,” said Knight Frank Asia-Pacific managing director Kevin Coppel at the consultancy.

2. Hong Kong's reserve will "remain under pressure 2024-03-10 21:09:06

With Hong Kong's fiscal reserve remaining a key credit strength of the region, experts suggested that the government conduct a comprehensive review of its tax system.

According to Fitch, Hong Kong's reserve will "remain under pressure in the next few years amidst modest deficit reduction."

"The reserve has declined from its pre-pandemic peak of 41% of GDP, as the government used it to cushion the economic fallout from the 2019-2020 protests and Covid-19 pandemic," Fitch reported.

3. British housebuilders need to build more 2024-03-12 23:17:04

British housebuilders need to build more, better quality homes and the government needs to streamline a complex planning system to fix a chronic shortage that drives up prices, the competition regulator said following a year-long study.

"Housebuilding in Great Britain needs significant intervention so that enough good quality homes are delivered in the places that people need them," Competition and Markets Authority Chief Executive Sarah Cardell said.

4. The commercial market is poised for growth 2024-03-12 23:20:05

The commercial real estate (CRE) market is poised for growth in 2024, fueled by an estimated US$761b in global closed-ended funds ready for deployment into real estate. Key targets for regional capital investment in 2024 include Singapore and Hong Kong’s retail sector.

“Having spoken recently to many institutional investors, it is evident that some markets and some asset "box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1rem; font-size: 18px; font-family: "PT Serif", serif;">Although capital inflows from outside the Asia Pacific region fell in 2023 to a 13-year low, intra-regional cross-border investment remains robust, particularly from investors in Japan, Singapore, and mainland China. Japan is expected to lead the recovery, followed by markets where interest rate pressures have been significant, with China expected to lag behind. 

5. Secondary market has seen a surge in demand 2024-03-14 21:22:05

The secondary market has seen a surge in demand for flats in the lower price range following the easing of measures imposed at the height of the property boom to curb speculation.

Many home buyers and investors are actively searching for properties, leading to situations where vendors are looking for higher bids even with an offer in hand and some buyers are resorting to confirmor sales.