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There is a silver lining in the property market

Damon Ho

On 28 February, the financial secretary announced that the long-awaited removal of the spicy measures. The real estate industry cheered and received what they wanted. As per the public's expectation, they are pleased to welcome that the property prices will increase again. On the day when the news released, the real estate stocks only rebounded slightly, which just reflected that the financial industry was not fully recognize that the effectiveness of the withdrawal of spicy measures. The next day of this announcement. Some of the landlords who raised their asking prices of their sales listings. Whether property prices can eventually stop falling and rebound again, there will be a clear answer in the second quarter of this year.

On the second day after the full withdrawal of spicy measures, a media had conducted an online survey to gather the public's opinion on this issue. In this survey, more than 3,000 participants expressed their preference. Fifteen percent of them believed that it is the right time to enter the market. The other sixty percent expressed that the downward trend of property prices will not be changed. The remaining twenty percent said they still are not sure whether the property prices will continue to fall or bounce back in near future. 

The above-mentioned survey on the property market showed that the citizens remain cautious about the withdrawal of spicy measures. According to this research, it can anticipate that the property transaction volume will increase soon due to the withdrawal of spicy measures, but the rising level of property prices will still be moderate.

If the property market transactions continue to rebound one month later, the twenty-five percent participants of above survey who still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the property market are expected to turn to be more positive to the property market, and they may join the crowd of the new home buyers. Eventually, the property price will increase from the lowest level.

As sixty percent of the people are still unsatisfied with the new policies, the property market will be difficult to recover quickly. In fact, the current U.S. dollar interest rate provides depositors with a return of 5.5%, which is 2% higher than the current rental return that is approximately 3.5% now. Therefore, the wealthy class will be cautious to increase their rental portfolio in response to the withdrawal of spicy measures.

If we examine this issue from a different perspective, the new supply of first-hand housing units in the next four years will reach 110,000 units, and there are still another 20,000 units in the sales listings. Therefore, developers are under intense pressure to clear these premises, so a low-priced strategy is always preferable. Many low-priced first-hand properties are for sale, and the rising price of second-hand properties will be restricted. Thus, second-hand owners who want to sell their properties should not raise their asking prices too much to avoid missing the opportunity to sell their units. 

 
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1. Property reset 2024-03-02 18:14:34

Now, homebuyers do not need to pay the special stamp duty against short-term home speculation, the buyer's stamp duty against nonlocal buyers, and the new residential stamp duty against second-time buyers, which had been in place to cool the property market since 2010.

Only the basic ad valorem stamp duty is left.

With the duties gone, an insider said they do not believe speculation cases will surge in the short term. But authorities received an average of HK$9.4 billion annually in the past three years from the levies.

Companies and overseas buyers are expected to save as much as HK$1 million in stamp duty payment when purchasing a home valued at HK$8 million.

At the same time, the cap on the loan-to-value ratio for properties worth up to HK$30 million for self-use homebuyers is lifted to 70 percent. That allows buyers to pay a downpayment of as low as 30 percent of the property value, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said yesterday.

The maximum LTV ratio for homes valued at HK$35 million or more is increased to 60 percent as well. For non-self-use residential properties the cap is raised to 60 percent from 50 percent.

2. Gov anticipates a $48.1b deficit in 24-25 2024-03-03 00:10:11

The government anticipates a $48.1b deficit for the fiscal year 2024-25.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan said the projection, coupled with a decline in fiscal reserves to $685.1b due to a $120b bond issuance, reflects ongoing challenges in Hong Kong's external environment and the gradual recovery of asset markets.

For FY23-24, the government expects the deficit to clock in at $101.6 and fiscal reserves to reach $733.2b by 31 March.

3. Gov introduced a slew of tax-related measures 2024-03-04 10:43:50

The government has introduced a slew of tax-related measures in the 2024-25 budget, including the reduction of salaries and profits taxes.

In his budget speech, Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced that the government will reduce salaries tax and tax under personal assessment for the 2023-24 tax year by 100%, subject to a ceiling of $3,000.

The reduction will be reflected in the final tax payable for the year of assessment. 

The government will apply the same reduction, also subject to a ceiling of $3,000, to profits tax for the 2023-24 year of assessment.

4. CK CHEUNG 2024-03-05 17:24:58
Do not trust the survey. It's always the opposite especially Chinese people. 

In my view, I agreed that in long term the property downturn will continue because the global economy of China is clearly under strong stress and pressure and this downturn is never meant to be affected by the removal of SSD, DSD and BSD. But it is clear that the transaction cost has reduced a lot which really could support the property market price for a short term due to this removal measures. 
5. 27,000 units will be put on the market 2024-03-06 12:56:46

Major developers are preparing to put nearly 27,000 new residential units on the market this year now that the government has seen fit to scrap all the cooling measures put in place at the height of the market boom to curb speculation.

The stress testing requirement for mortgagor has also now been suspended.

Henderson Land (0012)'s highly-anticipated Belgravia Place in Cheung Sha Wan is expcted to be a major focus for buyers with 714 units, with the first round of sales set to be early next month, potentially making it the first new development to hit the market in the Year of the Dragon.

6. HK Land posted lost in 23 2024-03-08 13:06:59

Hongkong Land Holdings posted a loss attributable to shareholders of US$582m in FY23, following a year of profit in FY22.

In a bourse filing, the company said it recorded a net non-cash loss of US$1.3b in FY23, "arising primarily from the revaluation" of its Investment Properties portfolio. 

In FY22 and FY23, the company said, "negative revaluation movements principally arose in Hong Kong, where there was a gradual decrease in valuations of the group’s prime office portfolio."

In FY23, the underlying profit of Hongkong Land Holdings Limited also dropped 5% to US$734m.