我係一名業主, 當物業價格下跌時, 我會少啲消費, 晚飯少啲出街食, 買少啲名牌, 但我唔會賣樓, 因為自住(賣咗樓都要交租) , 無著數.

但當樓價平穩時我會消費多啲.

但樓價升太多, 會好多人叫我賣樓吐現, 但我堅持不賣, 因我相信貨幣只有貶值一條路......而我又未必咁好彩可以高賣低買!

"淡友已經很可憐，我不想再贏牙較" 

一句贏哂!

有個朋友, 佢2010年因為自住樓升不少, 於是想高賣低買, 所以便賣樓賺錢. 跟住租屋住, 現在過了2年.

佢月租9000*24=216000. 2年來駛費用咗21萬多(地產租屋佣,搬屋傢俱等費用)

現在樓價仲比當時起碼多50萬, 所以同意"淡友已經很可憐，我不想再贏牙較"

個朋友就係信+葱和那些末日博士, 所以搞成咁 !

全球股票市場跌跌跌，大家都聚精會神係歐洲度，睇下拒哋呢次點收科！

逆向思考可唔可以發揮出作用？

大家有無想過，如果你係希臘居民、大型企業主腦人、資產階級---你係現時咁嘅環境之下，你會點做？

再擴大少少，大家又有無想過，如果你係歐豬各國嘅居民、大型企業主腦人、資產階級---你係現時咁嘅環境之下，你會點做？

再擴大到整個歐元區，大家又有無想過，如果你係歐洲各國嘅居民、大型企業主腦人、資產階級---你係現時咁嘅環境之下，你又會點做？

再擴大到整個資本主義世界，大家又有無想過，如果你係歐、美、澳、加各國嘅居民、大型企業主腦人、資產階級---你係現時咁嘅環境之下，你又會點做？

最後再擴大到整個世界，大家又有無想過如果你係一個活生生嘅人類，作為地球邨嘅一份子、或大型企業主腦人、或薄有資產嘅中產階級---你係現時咁嘅環境之下，你又會點做？

動物係有自私心嘅，為左生存、異性、及權力，老豆同仔都會打生打死，人類仲要加埋金錢！

唔增加貨幣供應，會係短時間內釘蓋！！

增加貨幣供應，會引發通貨膨脹，最終都要釘蓋，不過係在十年八年後發生！！

咁現在有投票權嘅選民就可以選擇他們嘅未來，即死？或是十年八年死？

泛福利利益主義扭曲人性，已走到窮途末路，但係拒壽終正寢前，必掀天動地，財富大轉移定必發生！！！

我個人推斷，希臘及歐豬各國嘅居民、大型企業主腦人、資產階級，必定想方設法將個人及企業的資產，轉到「安全啲」嘅地方，例如亞洲、德國、美國等！！

之後連德國及美國都唔掂，資金集中湧向亞洲，泛亞洲嚴重水浸，引發超級泡沫經濟可期，C老板估 CCL「只係」 200點原來係最大嘅淡友！！！

博士言“淡友已經很可憐，我不想再贏牙較”?  是否過了火一點

世事無絕對嘅 。。。。。“置業” 與“不置業” 確實是兩種取態，不能說選擇A 就是對；選擇B 就是錯。要懂得尊重別人的選擇。退一步海闊天空。不必冷嘲熱諷咄咄逼人。

忍一時風平浪靜。每人走的路都不盡相同，目前稍為忍耐一下，機會永遠會留給準備充足的人的。。。。。

Because of the fears from the negative assets in 2003, our friends have given up their properties and handed back to banks. They also said that they will not buy houses in the remaining life ! But they would like to pay a monthly rent of HK$22,000 by using some dividends from the blue chip stocks,  while others are paying their rents through their companies.

So, the Last Dr. and Big C still prefer to pay rents to homeowners. It means that they have already found some ways to pass their bills/expenses to their companies. It may be their companies allowances. Who knows ?

Note.  Atomic Bombs are still the most powerful tools which are regarded as Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD. There will be no World War III. As everyone should know what WMD happend in Japan in 1945. Fears can let everybody stop for a while before taking any action.  Greece will become Vampire in Europe, Spain is still crying for help from Mom, ECB.

【大公報訊】天水圍天耀邨一個「公屋富戶」前日遭爆竊，歹徒疑撬毀大門入內搜掠，並搬走一個小夾萬「滿載而逃」，盜走現金及首飾值逾四十萬元。戶主深夜返家揭發事件，痛失巨款欲哭無淚；警員已翻看大廈閉路電視，希望掌握賊人資料及早破案。

現場為天耀邨耀澤樓一個高層單位，男住客姓張（六十歲），經點算損失財物共達四十二萬元，包括有大筆現金，計有十二萬元人民幣、一千七百美元、五千港元，另外一批名表和首飾亦遭盜去。

前晚深夜十一時五十分，住客從外返家，赫見單位大門半開，心感不妙立即衝入屋查看，內裡一片混亂，衣櫃、抽屜等皆被賊人拉出搜掠，門窗也被打開，連屋內一個收藏貴重物品的小型夾萬，也被賊人抬走。警員接報到場調查，得悉損失數目也大感訝異，已翻看大廈的閉路電視畫面，希望有助掌握賊人衣著外貌，以及進入大廈及逃走路線。

根據房屋署現行「富戶政策」，規定住滿十年的公屋租戶，每兩年要申報家庭入息及資產。資料顯示，該類住戶目前約有三十八萬個，即佔公屋租戶逾五成半；而在上個年度，約有二萬四千個公屋租戶，因入息或資產超額，須繳交額外租金。

住戶如果入息達輪候冊限額兩至三倍，須繳交倍半租金，逾三倍者須繳交雙倍租；如果資產淨值超過入息限額八十四倍的超級富戶，須繳交市值租金，且要在一年內遷出。現時一人家庭住戶，可擁有資產淨值限額七十四萬元，四人家庭住戶則為一百七十四萬元

小明問幾點:

小明問:財爺先生幾多點?

財爺答:樓指升穿100點!

小明問:慧儀姐姐幾多點?

慧儀答:恒指跌左3千點!

小明問:長毛叔叔幾多點?

長毛答:拉布到半夜四點!

三個大人同時問:小明小明你想點?

小明好很大聲答:錶你地都無!!成日只識得老點!!

got so much time to write rubbish.

近來真係多左爆竊案, 朋友住錦繡, 無左十幾萬ge錶和鑽石...。

而家俾D賊仔知道公屋咁多「筍盤」, 有排玩啦, Amen! 呢D係咪叫報應呢? 生人霸死掟, 最後可能要擺D錢在 cookie 餅罐啦!

I love this crazy world!

博士應邀而作此文，未對樓市議論太多。但以 "淡友已經很可憐，我不想再贏牙骹"，表現出勝者的寬容，莫追窮寇。被憐憫者總是弱者，看淡多年就是可憐多年，可憐多年等於弱勢多年。弱者，你的名字未必是女人。

毛澤東的詩詞很大氣、很勵志，又可以與現實聯係起來，令你總會有新的體會和意境。

不少人以機械的思維，認為中原指數97的103是大泡沫，現在的103也必定是大泡沫。其實數字相同，意境卻完全不一樣。當年的樓市意境是 "鞭打喘牛莫能前" ，現在的意境是 "而今邁步從頭越"。當年是 "強駑之末"，如今是 "重整旗鼓"。

認清形勢是非常重要的，對趨勢判斷錯誤，會令人付出很大代價。

住在私楼的业主们要检讨一下, 自己家中有没有这么多现金和财物可以给偷的.  如果没有也不用惭愧, 因为我觉得很正常.

究竟谁比较富有? 住私楼的? 还是住天水围公屋(政府支助)的? 又或者这只是个别事件?

公屋富户何其多...

Whenever people (normally the younger generation) ask me for advise on whether they should buy their own flat, I would ask them 1 question:

Be very honest to yourself, do you consider having a property is (A): you LONG a property <you believe buying a property is like holding a "highly leveraged' financial asset, which gives you P/L when property price going up and down> or (B): you are market neutral <you beleive you deserve to have you own apartment. The fluctuation in propery price don't give you any financial gain/loss AFTER you have you own apartment. And before you have one, rise in property price is working against you>.

This is somthing previously been raised by MR. Yum, the HKMA ex-chief, who opined that having your own property is market neutral.

If the answer to my question is "B", I will say: Just do it. Do the homework; find a affortable one NOW and swap all the way to your dream house when opportunities araise. Don't forget until you are living in your dream house, you are unfortunately short the market. i.e. you will be happier when price go down than up. 

If the answer to my question is "A", I will say: Beware! Its a highly leveraged trade. And I will leave the decision with them. [anyway this bunch of prople normally don't make a fortune out of property 'investment', just like most people don't make much in equities market. ]

人人三間為目標, 起多多都唔够賣, 超人至LIKE

IQ題: 賣樓後, 交租抵過自置

能够做到擁有三间屋的, 我相信只会是一小撮人而已. 为自己的退休安排没有什么不对. 有人选股票, 有人选基金, 也有人选房子, 用有平常心看就是. 

"賣樓後, 交租抵過自置"

这也是你自己的选择. 也没有什么对不对, 你喜欢就可以.

沒有中國嘅黑錢流入以下行業即時死亡:

零售業 -- 海港城、時代廣場、成條廣東道屍環遍野。

舖位業主 --即時坐艇等死。

西九半山豪宅全部跳樓貨等您執!!

香港進入動亂時代!!

ICAC 只会變成C.Y.清除異己嘅政治武器!!

回 雲兄 :

婁山關戰役之前，毛慘敗湘江 (損失一半人馬) 。在此取得第一個大勝仗後，當然氣勢如虹，希望再接再厲，雄心萬丈地爭取連勝，所以說“而今邁步從頭越” 。毛站在高處眺望，小弟感受到他悲壯的氣概 :  蒼山如海，殘陽如血。

但博士的“淡友已經很可憐，我不想再贏牙骹”並無任何境界可言。也看不出博士表現出勝者的寬容，莫追窮寇的量度。更多的是冷嘲熱諷，幾近驕矜自恃。

如果雲兄認為目前香港樓市的形勢是“而今邁步從頭越” 或“重整旗鼓”；小弟尊重雲兄的看法，但如果第三季無力再上，而且“偃旗息鼓”的話；相信雲兄也聽過“一鼓作氣，再而衰，三而竭”這個故事。。。。

有能力置業而說等跌兩三成後會置業的人，不但在真的跌了兩三成時不會置業、還會在泡沫開始形成時才終於沉不住氣去跟大隊置業。不多久暴跌後只怕比以往更加沒膽色置業、更堅持對想置業的人潑冷水吧？

不過，既然這些人害怕投資物業的風險，那他們不參與也是對的，他麼只是選擇讓自己安心生活的方式而已，或許在經濟財務上被比下去了，但也沒必要比什麼輸贏。可每個人都想證明自己是對的。

The World is now facing the Risks of Deflation !! World economy is going down !!

All PMI index, China, Europe, US, India - All going down ! , that means the global demands are on the process of contracting instead of expanding

US unempolyment rates rises up again, breaking the downward trends , the risk of deflation is affecting US, Euro Spain is on another Bankia crisis while Greece will definitely need further cash to stay in Euro Zone, China 7% target economic growth seems to be in danger & RMB is starting to depreciate

=> All of these suggest the World needs Cash, CASH, and still CASHHHH !!!

=>Further QE3/OT2, Euro Printing money to fill up debts, China reduces interest expectation/ release money from central government becomes necessary 

=> Results similar to  previous guess :

1) All World Stocks further going down;

2) Oil Going down, gold going down ;

3) Euro is going down, RMB is going down

4) US Bonds / US$ going up - HK property market may be affected , but it will then further go up (safest asset against currency depreciation)

5) Either US , Europe refuse to print money, or all the people in the world reduces spending to pay debts - should be less likely, the fact is that the more they reduce their spending, the less they will earn => cause another vicious cycle and deflation / deleverage will make people painful for tens of years !

6) US not afraid of Mild Inflation, they are even more concerned about DEflation - as it is even more damaging /destructive

The God is asking the Earth what we are going to do for the World Economy going down ?

Multiple choice :

1) U.S / Europe people or developed countries people started to reduce spendings, all people over the world is keeping their purse tight, and altogether to pay debts !

or

2) You print more paper money to pay debts

Ans: if you choose 1, the result could be deflation and all people in the World suffered for many years - HK property will go down significantly..  

Or if you choose 2, which is much more preferred, currency / paper money value drops, more cash flow, more liquidity - HK property will further go up finally, though in short terms, it may drop due to the stock or economic effect...

For myself, I think option 2 is more likely.