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海外投資篇之平買貴用

湯文亮

紀惠集團行政總裁

  昨天寫完日本投資,反應唔錯,網友所說的事情中,有一些我亦未想過,這又並不是很奇怪,因為投資在日本並非我的強項,就算投資香港地產,我亦只懂皮毛,我見過不少前輩,對香港地產睇通睇透,不過,他們不想將知道知識公諸於世,但是他們有時興之所致,就會很詳細將香港地產行業剖析一番,老實說,我亦有得著,在我以往寫的文章,有很多都是演繹他們以往的說話,就好似諸葛亮在出師表中所說,此則數十年之精銳,非一州之所有,而網友之間的討論,沒有一個肯定答案,接受對方,最後得著,仍然是願意接受對方的人。

  我記得有一位前輩怎樣形容投資海外,他只是以「平買貴用」就已經可以將真相說出來,其實,貴買平用是很高深的學問,如果唔用,幾平都冇用,投資海外的人要細心思考這句話,這並不是叫投資者不要投資海外,如果用得著,甚至租得出去的話,投資亦無妨,否則,應三思而後行。

  我在紐約曼克頓,北京,星加坡,台北等地有物業,除了紐約曼克頓的舖位有穩定收入外,其它全部都空置,每月交的費用亦不少,但那些物業全部在優質地段,相比我以往購買的時候已升值不少,我唔捨得賣,因為我知道賣咗買唔返,但的確又用唔著,又唔想,或者唔敢租出去,好彩我全部海外物業都沒有借錢,所以,心理上都叫做投資升值,但現在的人投資在國內與我的想法不同,最大原因單以價值而言,國內的確比香港平很多,但回報亦是按比例減少,如果他們不是用作收租,只不過是作度假之用,最初的三,幾個月還會興致勃勃,每月有兩,三次到他們的國內物業度假,但是他們的興致會隨時日而遞減,如果你問一些在國內有物業的人,如果超過五年,他們一年最多去三,四次,計起嚟是非常貴,這是一些典型的貴買平用例子。

 
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1. 上海星河湾 2014-04-21 08:17:13

如果你問一些在國內有物業的人,如果超過五年,他們一年最多去三,四次,計起嚟是非常貴,這是一些典型的貴買平用例子。.......

網友私人資訊供參閱:剛剛收到上海來的房價......

???先生您好 ,我是刚才和您通话的上海星河湾 销售?????。地址:闵行区都会路。户型:245平3房,278平和300平4房。我们现在这个项目是以“梦幻豪宅”为主题打造的。外景是以西瓦斜坡尖屋顶的设计,雕花外立面。小区是以园林的概念打造,融合江南和岭南园林的精髓,打造的一个两万方的中心水景园林,同时还精心设有高差8米下沉式的结构。营造出一种景中有景,园中有园的高档小区。中心区域设有2300米的梦幻灯光泳湖,周边种植珍稀植物,精心打造具有热带风情的景致。
我们户型一梯一户,全明大气户型,客厅面宽6米,还有台湾首席设计大师邱德光室内设计。原单价5.8,现在开盘优惠活动仅需3.5万,还附送10000元/平标准的豪华装修和德国一线品牌厨具Gaggenau。同纬度最美的小区,本周折扣阶段,您一定不要错过,您看安排什么时间过来看一下?182218?????? 是我???的的号码!随时为您服务!收到请回复!谢谢!

西瓦斜坡尖屋顶...

豪宅不“豪” 撕开“中国式豪宅”的假面具

闵行上海星河湾初探

上海星河湾....

2. 只不過是傻仔 2014-04-21 08:44:57

實話實說: 回中國買樓是一件賞心樂事!!!

在香港有很多住公屋領取綜援人士一家四代,共分化為十餘個綜援家庭...

他們採用把妻兒女送給政府養,再婚三四次之苦肉計,政府要為他們供養單親家庭之妻兒女,按排上樓,樣樣服侍周到,.....

2005年至1994年間,中國的房價5萬至20萬間任由香港領取綜援人士在內地偷偷置產......我見好多認識的香港領取綜援人士是這樣前往大陸買樓,他們在香港領取綜援/住公屋,同時他們在內地有樓有舖收租,快活過神仙.....

現在香港社福開支500億以上,你哋呢班買樓供樓人士只不過是傻仔???未來世界是在香港領取綜援/住公屋,的社群世界!!!

 

3. 爭取連任的好事 2014-04-21 09:12:26

我希望我們的行政長官為我哋香港市民做一件減輕未來稅收支付社福開支,支出的好事提高民望,爭取連任的好事!!!

與中央政府商討優化經濟互通關係???特別商議事項,把香港領取綜援人士/家庭成員在中國境內資產/股票/房屋/大量存款充公/判處行騙罪收監.....

4. 引刀一快 2014-04-21 09:56:31
我以前識得一個老叔父,隻腳微跛,攞過萬綜援,成日喺我親戚間晒相舖晒相,點止買屋呀,包條東北妹靚到陳寶蓮咁,晒相嘅哥哥仔都流口水,仲幾乎個個月旅游!
5. 引刀一快 2014-04-21 10:02:10
湯生

大陸買樓收租冇價值嘅,得1-2厘回報,越係大件就越係唔值租,摞囄放雜物就一流,好過租迷你倉。
6. 引刀一快 2014-04-21 10:16:57
深圳、廣州、番禺、南沙...................
呢幾個地方交通好方便,去一次就相等于以前入一次屯門,平買平用,特別適合香港間屋得500呎,好想有個地方放嘢同埋放鬆嘅人,不過.............
早就已經限購,香港人好難買喇。
7. Alan Pepper 2014-04-21 13:25:14
I would like to ask those who have invested overseas. How much of their portfolio is overseas assets? I'm not experienced but I really cannot justify putting 30% or more  overseas, because it is too risky in my opinion. but to put 5% of portfolio takes too much time and effort for so little gain. (I. E. Even if the property is 100% gain it's only 5% of entire portfolio. My time is better spent in doing business.) This has put me off investing overseas until now. 

Can someone enlighten me in this area? 
8. yoyo 2014-04-21 15:01:45
I bought a condo. flat in Chicago's super prime location with an existing lease with all cash early last year. so far the tenant is good with no delay in paying rent and we renewed the lease contract once with 7% increase in rent.  Net return after tax and other costs is  around 3.5%.  The property appreciated around 10% in a year.

Alan, hope this will give you some idea in investing overseas.
9. yoyo 2014-04-21 15:03:34
alan, 

forgot to tell, my ovesea's investment is around 20% of my total portfolio.
10. Alan Pepper 2014-04-21 17:33:27
Hi yoyo. 

Thanks for your response. 

May I ask why Chicago? Also you bought all in cash right? Would you suggest buy all in cash? Or would you take up some mortgage so can off set some taxes? 


11. Oscar Lam 2014-04-21 18:53:56
如果資金充足,將部份資金投資到其他海外市場也是理所當然的事情。但除非我們對於某個地方的環境很熟悉,不然的話,將資金投資到全世界最好的地方也錯不了哪裡去,例如:美國的紐約,英國的倫敦,中國的上海。在那裡買物業,有買貴,但不會買錯。雖然目前我還沒有在海外買物業,但最喜歡倫敦和上海。倫敦和香港有相似的法律和稅務系統。上海更不用說了,中國政府集全國之力,力求將之打造成全球金融中心。

以下是本人之前去上海時,對於上海物業市場的一些了解,供大家參考。
9. Oscar Lam 2013-12-15 09:47:19
由於政府在一段較長時間內均會維持辣招,加上銀行按揭困難,相信香港物業這二年的升價空間十分有限。相反,隨著中國經濟持續快速增長,將部份資金轉投中國物業市場也是投資者的一項不錯的選擇。其中上海更是本人的首選,原因我就不多說了。

最近我特別去了二次上海,了解當地的住宅和商業寫字樓的投資機會。上海給我的印象是,政府積極有為,當地基建規劃得很好,政府在不同地區設立新的商業中心(CBD),到處都在大興土木。相反,香港這幾年發展緩慢,本人有點擔心!

言歸正傳。普遍來說,上海的物業價格比香港同級數的物業便宜許多,租金回報和香港差不多,地產代理告訴我當地投資者較注重物業的升值潛力。上海政府對於海外投資者有相當嚴格的限制,其中住宅相對寬鬆,商業寫字樓的投資則嚴格很多。有意投資上海的投資者要努力了解當地的法規和稅務,以免犯錯。以下是本人的一些了解,供各位作為參考:

海外人士投資住宅:
1. 每人限購一套,以個人名義購買。
2. 政府雖有規定購買者需於上海工作滿一年,但地產代理有方法解決這一問題,不用擔心。
3. 銀行按揭可經過代理介紹當地的外資銀行,如:匯豐、恆生等借入美金。利率大約在3.8%-4%,可借6-7成。
4. 建議持有物業超過5年后才出售,這樣稅金會少很多。

海外人士投資商業寫字樓:
1. 嚴格很多!只能以公司名義購買,即投資者需於上海設立一家外資獨資公司。
2. 不能按揭,需要full payment!
3. 理論上該寫字樓只能是公司自用,不能出租。但實際上許多海外投資者均將物業出租。當中涉及法律灰色地帶,這裡我就不多說了。
4. 所交的稅金比住宅為高。
12. 引刀一快 2014-04-21 19:04:22
個人愚見,海外投資同本地投資都係一樣,唔熟唔做,如果你喺芝加哥留過學、生活過,知道風土人情地理熟架步,投資咪有多D保障囉,若果人地話芝加哥你又學人芝加哥,自己唔熟路又冇心腹親信帶路,要靠晒當地地産中介帶路嘅話,係豪賭。
13. Or sir 2014-04-21 19:41:55

I bought an acre land in Calgary, Canada in 1994 through Walton agent in Hong Kong. It was worth C$20000. I sold it in 2006. It was worth C$80000. However, I was taxed more than 40%. I got net profit C$45000. However, If I sold the land in 2008, the world economic crisis, the land was worth C$150000. I invest lands again this year. I hope I can get profit 20% per year again. This is my real story.

14. jon 2014-04-21 21:15:56
因為工作,我在上海和广州station了九年,在兩地有置業經驗。個人感覺未來發展比广州,深圳要好。但建議只選中環以内的房子。。
15. jon 2014-04-21 22:03:20
sorry 漏咗兩個字:個人感覺上海未來發展比广州,深圳要好。但建議只選中環以内的房子。。
16. yoyo 2014-04-21 22:25:53
hi alan,

chicago is the third largest city in US with a centralized downtown. so, it will be very easy for you to pick which neighbourhood to buy, i.e. area near their CBD and major shopping spot.  another reason i picked chicago because it is one of the largest commercial hub of US. and, there are a lot of top ranked universities i.e. U of Chicago, Northwestern U, and many more. so, surely you can guarantee a nonstop stream of middle class are there and they are your potential tenants and they are quality tenants. that's my rationale of choosing chicago.

yes, it was a cash buy. actually, it will be difficult to secure a mortgage in US. after the financial tsunami, US banks are very tight to approve any mortgage even for locals. for us as foreigners, you need to first establish your credit with a US bank with at least a year before they consider your mortgage. but mortgage rate is not attracting at all in US, normally, it will be between 3.5% to 4%p.a.. and you are required to buy home insurance if you have mortgage.

if you are interested, we can share more ....


17. yoyo 2014-04-21 23:06:14
hi alan, 

i took 6 months to research different cities before i acted upon.  my fundamental principle is to buy where with low downside risk and potential stable income, may not necessary with highest upside potential, but with moderate upside.

i ruled out London and New York with 2 reasons, firstly, the pick up price for a quality condo will be too high with my total asset size, secondly, both of the places are pretty expensive even in the backdrop of financial tsunami, i.e. London was in it's historical high and New York was only 15% below its peak.

i ruled out Beijing and Shanghai also mainly because they are very expensive for those high end properties and the rental return is pretty low and tenant quality is also a big concern.  my belief is that, their potential if not fully, have also be largely reflected on the prices.  i am not very sure if i judged them wrongly.  they maybe further shoot rocket high, but i am just not comfortable to make this bet.

i also evaluated vancouver and sydney, but obviously they are not good choices for the time being. high in their currencies and record high property prices.

it left with europe and US. and i deeply believed that US economy will rebound much faster than that of europe. and we will have no language barrier with US.  so, it left with only which US cities to choose from. And I chose chicago, apart from reasons i gave you earlier, chicago actually is very affordable given the quality of the city.

hope you find it make sense for you.
18. yoyo 2014-04-21 23:30:40
引刀一快兄:

而家網上資訊咁多,做足功課,邊到嗰邊地產牽住走,從來力不到不為財,我去芝加哥買樓時都係第一次去,但我用咗幾個月時間做功課,但要坦白承認,第一次填報稅表都好頭痛。
19. 买基金 2014-04-21 23:47:14

买楼的回报比买股票高,是因为买楼,可以平借钱。又唔会被call loan。

如果要full pay 买楼不如买基金。90年代某只美国基金的净值都系1元左右,今日这只基金的净值是7元,升了7倍。其实普遍美国基金在这段时间,都差不多。

不过买基金好容易就会卖出去。这其实都是风险。

20. 順民 2014-04-22 00:18:08

To 16 Or sir :

As I know there're many many land in Canada, how can the land value of this country

has greatly increased fourfold in within ten years . It make me got a little surprise !

21. 順民 2014-04-22 00:20:28

Sorry

to 13 Or sir .

22. 離婚真與假 2014-04-22 00:46:07
回2:
(先此聲明反對任何造假或犯法東西)應該是個無奈但"不錯"的選擇。單親媽媽帶住幾個小朋友,福利應尚可。假結婚是犯法,亦有客觀証據查証。至於假離婚:先不說是否犯法;怎查證?我同老婆鬧交,因此雙方同意離婚,一年後完成,但之後發現還很愛對方,所以一齊住一齊瞓,但不再結婚,因為怕瘀,所以維持雙方單身狀態。如果有聯名物業以致相關DSD問題,更可能透過離婚過程的court order免稅轉名(to be verified)。本人再一次聲明反對任何造假或犯法東西,但我聽過類似情況。
23. yoyo 2014-04-22 00:46:23
買基金兄:

你或者講得對,買樓做按揭有margin up effect, 可以嬴得多D,但我係退休人士,比較保守.

買基金我就真係唔係會,老實講D基金佬嘅performance 有時都跑唔贏大市,仲要每年收管理費,真想叫佢哋慳D; 美國基金就更唔敢買,而家美國股票日日創新高,你睇佢經濟復甦都唔係咁強,泡沫化得好緊要, 而家美國嘅富國銀行係全世界market cap 最大嘅銀行,但係賺雞碎咁多,足証美國股票有太多水份,唔值買,但呢個世界髙高未為髙,好難講,但呢D錢我就唔賺啦!
24. 順民 2014-04-22 00:55:31

各位:

在下晚上剛回港﹐很倦很倦﹐容後再談。

25. Learning Gor 2014-04-22 01:24:47
To 13/F Or Sir, 

May I know which project are you referring to!  They only claim doubling your investment in 7 years.
May I also know under what circumstance you sold your share of the land before exit and where did you get the buyer?
26. 引刀一快 2014-04-22 08:46:22
覺得上海比廣深發展好係唔奇怪,九十年代就已經政策嚴重傾斜于長三角,但係廣深對香港人有文化親和同路程優勢,對于香港人置業係重要因素。
27. Or sir 2014-04-22 08:47:14
The lands were finally bought by Manulife to develop a big estate in Calgary. I go to Macau today. Talk to you later.
28. 引刀一快 2014-04-22 09:21:48
To 18樓 yoyo

唔好意思,我應該稱呼閣下yoyo“兄”嗎?
“力不到不為財”我絕對同意,我亦重視“唔熟唔買”,我覺得同一城市中不同區域但同一價位嘅貨,其實千差萬別,就以廣州爲例,大量對廣州唔熟悉嘅外來人口,將廣州各地區物業不合理并且不均勻地推高,將來出現樓價不均勻地回落亦係自然而然。可能我比較保守,認爲退一萬步,自己或許用得上嘅物業優先考慮。
29. PN 2014-04-22 09:31:26
US Major City change in house price 1984-2013* CPI adjusted
ATLANTA 2.03 -0.15
BALTIMORE 3.29 1.11
BIRMINGHAM 2.29 0.11
BOSTON 3.88 1.70
BUFFALO 2.57 0.39
CHARLOTTE 2.24 0.06
CHICAGO 2.74 0.56
CINCINNATI 2.11 -0.07
CLEVELAND 2.22 0.04
COLUMBUS 2.31 0.13
DALLAS 1.58 -0.60
DENVER 2.95 0.77
DETROIT 2.52 0.34
FORTWORTH 1.69 -0.49
HARTFORD 2.46 0.28
HOUSTON 2.05 -0.13
INDIANAPOLIS 2.14 -0.04
KANSASCITY 2.09 -0.09
LOSANGELES 4.14 1.96
MEMPHIS 1.86 -0.32
MIAMI 2.57 0.39
MILWAUKEE 2.65 0.47
MINNEAPOLISSTPAUL 2.50 0.32
NEWORLEANS 2.06 -0.12
NEWYORK 3.60 1.42
NORFOLK 2.66 0.48
OAKLAND 4.54 2.36
OKLAHOMACITY 1.66 -0.52
PHILADELPHIA 3.15 0.97
PHOENIX 2.18 0.00
PITTSBURGH 2.61 0.43
PORTLAND 3.76 1.58
PROVIDENCE 3.42 1.24
ROCHESTER 1.87 -0.31
SACRAMENTO 3.07 0.89
SALTLAKECITY 3.10 0.92
SANANTONIO 1.82 -0.36
SANBERNADINO 2.76 0.58
SANDIEGO 3.97 1.79
SANFRANCISCO 4.56 2.38
SANJOSE 5.22 3.04
SANTAANA 4.04 1.86
SEATTLE 4.23 2.05
STLOUIS 2.16 -0.02
TAMPA 2.15 -0.03
WASHINGTONDC 3.75 1.57
*1 = unchange in price; 2 = doubled in price
Source: http://www.lincolninst.edu/subcenters/land-values/metro-area-land-prices.asp

30. PN 2014-04-22 09:58:55
Change in HK property price from 1981 to 2013 before and after inflation adjustments


House price index
from RVD
CPI
1981 24 27
2013 242.4 118
CPI adjusted
change 10.1 5.72962963
source: http://www.rvd.gov.hk/en/property_market_statistics/index.html
used 1981 as starting point; price dropped 30% between 81-84
31. 窮人 2015-11-01 22:09:30
我想買英國樓,回報好似唔錯。