There were a number of market comments to suggest that the property market had bottomed out and rebounded, but most of these comments were common paradox and plausible conjectures, lacking the data to prove it. One of these comments mentioned four factors such as dollar depreciation, interest rate cuts, Hong Kong's new repositioning, and a long-term supply shortage as strong supports to trigger the robust rebound in the sluggish property market. How do these assumptions truly boost the property price to rebound?
In fact, the dollar depreciation is hard to prove which is correlated to the property market downturn. At the beginning of this year, the dollar depreciation against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Canadian Dollar, resulting in many investors shifting to invest in Euros and Yen. Those investors who bought Euros to appreciate by 10% six months later. Indeed, the case of recent Dollar depreciation triggering investors to buy property was extremely rare.
Does the falling interest rates can boost property prices？In short, lower interest rates will accelerate the flow of funds back to the 
market. However, whether the US will cut interest rates next year and by how much remains unknown. Furthermore, the US has previously raised interest rates several times, but Hong Kong did not emulate. Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates next year, Hong Kong banks may not imitate. If the Fed cuts interest rates next year, the stock market will benefit directly, not the property market. Therefore, there is little likelihood that investors will rush into the property market due to the rates cut.
Furthermore, Hong Kong is still exploring its new positioning under the integration between Hong Kong and mainland China. This economic transformation involves a wide range of aspects, so it will take another three to five years to complete smoothly. The large-scale closures of restaurants and the declining construction industry have recently led to the rising unemployment rate. This economic transformation is more difficult than the public thought. Without successful economic transformation, it will be complex to have new force to raise property prices.
The above-mentioned microeconomics factors only caused minor effects on the property market. The major macroeconomics factors that truly determine property price fluctuations include the new supply of nine hundred thousand residential units under the Northern Metropolitan Area Plan, the gradual decline in Hong Kong property prices under the integration between Hong Kong and mainland China, and the Hong Kong government reshaped its economic policy to high tech related industries. These macroeconomics factors have now changed, making it difficult for the property market to regain its former glory. On the other hand, minor improvements in microeconomics factors will only slightly stimulate the property price to have a short-lived fluctuation.
