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Bottom-fishing is frequent whereas a rebound is still a long way to go

Damon Ho

With no new negative news emerging in the property market recently, transaction volume has seen a slight recovery. Several industry KOLs were eager to deliver a message that the property market will be going to rebound, and they emphasized that anyone would miss a chance if he or she does not purchase property at this moment. Indeed, investors buy dips in various kinds of property including shops, commercial buildings, luxury homes etc. These properties, which prices dropped between 50% to 60%, had an average yield over 5%. Even if prices do not rebound, those investors are still enjoying high yields over a long term ahead. 

 

Real estate agents are victims of the current property market downturn. With transaction volumes plummeting, their survival space has dwindled significantly. In reality, full-time agents earn basic salary only around $6,500 per month. Recent surveys showed that the number of licensed agents has decreased by about 10%, and those big agency firms have been quietly cutting off staff. If the property market truly rebounds, those firms should have already been recruiting staff and opening more branches. 

 

The price valuation of commercial buildings and shops might have truly bottomed out, but a true rebound will take an extra three to four years. Therefore, investors or self-users buying the dips do not signal property price rebounding soon. Regarding the latest first-hand property, The Headland Residences Phase 1 in Chai Wan launched at HK$15,000 per square foot (psf.), similar to the prices of Island Resort with building age of 25 years in the same district. Indeed, it recorded the lowest first-hand property opening price in the past eleven years in the same district. This low price suggested that the developer took a bleak view of the property market outlook.

 

For Grade A residential properties, prices have fallen to HK$16,000 to HK$18,000 psf., which have prompted investors to buy the dips. Prices for Grade B commercial buildings have reduced HK$4,000 to HK$7,000 psf, it has also stimulated investors to buy in the market. For shop market, those premises with yields over 5% had also attracted long-term investors to purchase at low prices. Since luxury property prices plummeted by 50% to 60%, transactions began to increase. Even though small and medium-sized residential properties only had a 30% drop, self-users began to buy in the market. While self-users and investors are buying the dips across all property types, transactions prices recorded at their new low, but until recently, there is no unambiguous evidence that the property prices are going to rebound.

 

 
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1. SHK POSTED PROFIT 19.9 b 2025-09-07 09:26:53

Sun Hung Kai Properties posted a net profit of $19.89b for the year ending June 2025.

Profit attributable to shareholders came in at $19.28b, or $6.65 per share.

Its revenue rose 8% year on year (YoY) to $90.12b, driven by a 26% increase in property development revenue to $34.56b.

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