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The failure of investment veterans is due to overconfidence
2025-5-10
The investment market has been changing significantly since Trump took office in United States this year. Profiting in the U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets is challenging due to their ongoing fluctuations, regardless of your stance. Due to the ongoing tariffs war, first-hand properties must be opened for sales at lower prices. Second-hand properties prices have experienced even steeper reductions. Additionally, landlords of retail and office spaces are facing declining rents and increasing vacancy rates.
Durning this market downturn, seasoned investors are under greater pressure than the general middle class.  These investors typically own shops and commercial spaces for rental income. Rent collection is a straightforward process, but experienced investors have frequently utilized property appreciation for refinancing purposes over the past three decades. Though property prices experienced a sharp drop during the financial crisis from 1997 to 2003, and the financial tsunami in 2008, but it quickly rebounded after these two crises. As a result, most investors believed a larger and uncontrollable market crash was unlikely to come.
Experienced investors recognized that the property market had reached its peak and began to decline three years ago. However, they were reluctant to lower prices in order to sell mortgaged shops and offices for de-leveraging purposes. Some investors even bought shops at lower prices, and they believed that the rental income of shops within housing estates should be stable. However, rents fell due to the expenditure pattern shifting to neighboring China cites, and shop prices dropped as rents fell.
If there were no tariffs war, the impact of this market crash does not cross tolerable level. But the tariffs war started in April, and the investment market collapsed. China' s domestic exports to the US fell sharply and factories reduced production, and it quickly damaged the investment sentiment. Banks increased pressure to call loans, forcing investors to sell properties at ultra-low prices. A lot of second-hand properties landlords also sold their assets, leading property price to plummet and resulting in 40,000 units into negative net worth.
JLL also indicated that the number of these negative equites is expected to increase to 80,000 by the end of this year. Given the current market conditions, the likelihood of this pessimistic scenario occurring is approximately fifty percent. Furthermore, the ongoing Sino-US tariffs war may extend for one quarter more, adding challenges to the already fragile property market.
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1. China and US kicked off a high-level meeting 2025-05-10 18:18:48 |
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China and the United States on Saturday kicked off a high-level meeting on economic and trade affairs in Geneva.
Xinhua news agency reported that Vice Premier He Lifeng had met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The talks come as both sides seek to de-escalate a trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff rollout.
Tariffs imposed on China since the start of the year currently total 145 percent, with cumulative duties on some goods reaching 245 percent. |
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2. Mainland exports rose last month 2025-05-11 21:54:52 |
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Mainland exports rose last month despite the trade war raging with the United States, official data showed on Friday ahead of talks between the world's top two economies towards easing the standoff.
Experts said that the forecast-smashing 8.1 percent rise indicated that Beijing was re-routing trade to Southeast Asia to mitigate US tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese imports imposed by US President Donald Trump.
Trade between the world's two largest economies has slumped since Trump imposed the tariffs and China responded with levies of 125 percent and other measures. |
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3. US consumer inflation cooled 2025-05-14 10:35:31 |
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US consumer inflation cooled slightly in April, according to government data published on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into force.
The data covers the introduction of the new levies against most countries – including steep duties on China – which spooked financial markets and raised fears of a spike in prices.
Despite these fears, the consumer price index (CPI) eased to 2.3 percent in April from a year ago, a tick below the 2.4 percent figure recorded in March, the Labour Department said in a statement. |
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4. CK CHEUNG 2025-05-14 14:47:03 |
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Very Short Sighted Essay.
Not a good reference that just restate the facts without any outlook or predictions.
From my point of view , the property market is near to the bottom and will rise very soon because :
* Trump has been playing games to cause chaos and confusion that he's known to take advantage under these kinds of circumstances, therefore, he quicky settles the trade dispute with China within just a couple of days ; * Trump wants low interest rates, he will achieve this not by forcing US federal, but through other measures such as intentionally damage the economy causing short term recession, while he immidately recalled all of his tariffs plan rapidly, this has successfully weakened the US dollars quite a lot in short time, thus creating a weak US dollar environment for lower rates ; * Trump actually wants interest down to zero, in order to reduce country's national debt, it's much faster and efficient way to reduce the expenditures ! currently only paying interest cost is even higher than National Security Cost, of course even better than reducing work forces or Govenment DOGE's ; * China is picking up the economy after compromising with US, and with the success of Pakistan's war, China economy will benefit from the strong image as a result of India VS Pakistan War ; * There're some funds silently parking at HK, they will react very soon once the wind direction changes , and in property market, there's still rising demand for housings and rental returns keep on rising up ;
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5. One Big local bank laid off staff 2025-05-15 11:37:19 |
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One Local Big Bank has rarely laid off employees, has to follow its parent company in streamlining its structure. In addition, the bank's asset quality has continued to deteriorate in recent years. Sources have revealed that Hang Seng is in the process of restructuring departments and re-hiring positions. For the time being, the scope involved is mainly mid- and back-end departments. Some departments have already had employees laid off due to structural integration. Even if employees have not received the "big envelope", it does not mean that they can stay safely. They still need to apply for new positions after the integration. The relevant actions will be completed before the end of June, and the restructuring is expected to involve a wide range of positions. |
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