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Property price will be slashed in half without a doubt

Damon Ho

Since August, the property market has been deteriorating. Indeed, the transaction volumes of first and second-hand properties had decreased simultaneously. Furthermore, property prices are also reduced to the low level.

The latest figures revealed that most of sellers of second-hand properties transactions were old landlords who had held the properties for more than 20 years. They sold their properties even the prices were low. This trend showed that these properties-lovers were no longer optimistic to the property market. Their beliefs had been fundamentally changed, and it will give a strong impact on the property market.

Recently, some speculators, who bought premises quickly after withdrawal of the cooling measures, have sold their properties under their purchasing prices three months later. Their decisive actions showed that they were not confident in the positive development of the property market.

When the government announced the scrapping of cooling measures at the end of February, the market sentiment did have a slight improvement, but the effect could not fulfill the expectations of the most property commentators. Finally, the transaction volumes and property prices rebounded marginally about two months and the property market fell again as it was before the withdrawal of cooling measures. The transaction volumes of the top ten housing estates fell back to single digit figures on Saturday and Sunday. The prices of many housing estates have been decreasing from 25 % to 30%.

Until now, the experts predict that the property market will bounce back again after The Federal Reserve System cut the interest rate in in September. Their predictions completely ignore the cause of the decline property market is the recession and the oversupply of new premises. Obviously, the interest rate is not the key factor to trigger the fluctuations of the property market.

When the removal of cooling measures earlier, the experts expected that the property market would rebound modestly. The market did not perform well as expected. Thus, the experts are expected that the market will rebound again after September is just another unrealistic sweet dream.

According to the current trend, it is estimated that there is a significant chance of a further five percent decline before the end of the year, but what would it be next year? 

At present, there is no incentive to change the downward trend, and the public should psychologically prepare that a worse scenario is coming. The next year is still a gloomy year, and the property price will fall a further 10%, and the cumulative decline of these years will push down the property price in half from the record high.

 
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1. June's s&p fell 28% 2024-08-10 18:33:41

A total of 5,245 sale and purchase agreements for all building units were logged by the Land Registry in June.

This figure represents a 28.7% decline from May but a 9.8% increase year-on-year (YoY).

The total consideration for these agreements dropped 34% from May to $41.1b, although it saw a 3.6% rise compared to last year.

For residential units, the registry logged 3,856 agreements in June. This is a 30.5% decrease from May but a 6.7% increase compared to June of the previous year. 

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