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The middle class returns to poverty leading to the collapsed property market

Damon Ho

In the second half of this year, the rebound of property market has been completed. Until now, the average property price has fallen by 25%, and if you take a typical residential unit in Hong Kong with an average market value of HK$ six million in record high, the present value of this unit has decreased by 1.5 million to 4.5 million from the peak. There are about 1.65 million homeowners in Hong Kong, and the total market value of residential properties has decreased HK$2,475 billion based on this average decline.

Apart from the property, a typical middle-class family in Hong Kong usually owned two million MPF and one million Hong Kong stocks. Unfortunately, the stock's value in MPF and stock market has been declining half from its recent year high, which is about 1.5 million. If a middle-class family has a total asset of nine million, considering of the declining property prices, and the loss of MPF and stock investment, the total loss is about three million, so the asset value of the above-mentioned middle class will own only six million at present.

The total investment loss on MPF and equities was 2,475 billion for the 1.65 million private households. Hong Kong's total asset loss was $4.95 trillion, including the loss of the market value of properties.

Hong Kong's total asset value has decreased swiftly, and it inflicts a significant impact to the middle class, which is the main consumer power. Therefore, the double blow of the declining property market and the falling stocks prices has caused a rapid decline in purchasing power, which has directly dragged down the turnover massively in retailing and catering industries.

The swift decline in the number of local customers, the deep drop in rents and transaction prices of shops have been pushing up the vacancy rate, and most of the investors who had purchased the shops at soaring prices in recent years will be eliminated in this downturn. Soon, the number of bankruptcies of shops owners will increase significantly.

When the value of assets falls deeply, the number of bankruptcies will naturally increase. As a result, the foreclosed properties and the bad debts of banks will also rise rapidly. This destructive force of the declining market has begun to impose heavy pressure on banks' cash flows, so banks are more prudent in approving mortgage applications. Considering the difficulty in obtaining mortgages, it brings a further blow to the already exhausted property market.

 
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