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Cheung Kong’s The Cost Line successfully tested the bottom line of property market

Damon Ho

After a quiet season for new developments, Cheung Kong’s The Cost Line II successfully broke the stalemate. The whole projects’ units  were oversubscribed by 31 times and broke this year’s record. This Saturday, The Cost Line I were scheduled to sell following the same  previous subscription arrangement. The over subscription stood firm at 21 times. If nothing special happens, The phase I ‘s units will surely be sold out within days. These two excellent sales record proved the market had been bottomed out. It also confirmed that the property market still has sufficient purchasing power.

Hong Kong government recently announced the local population is 7.49 million. Although the accuracy of the figure has raised suspicion, but it is undeniable that 50,000 approved applications of the Talent Program, plus 150 one-way entry visa per day, have successfully replenished part of the emigrant’s population.

 In recent months, the U.S. Federal Reserve persistently raised the interest rates, plus there have been a lot of bankruptcy incidents in domestic real estate companies, coupled with the underpriced emigration listings flooding the market, scared off almost all property market buyers. Cheung Kong’s supreme pricing strategy detonated the purchasing power that had been suppressed for several months. Having Cheung Kong’s successful example , other developers will follow the suit, and more buyers will naturally return to the market.

In fact, the small and medium-sized residential leasing market has started to rebound recently. As domestic students are looking for rental properties in preparation for the new school term, newly arrival of approved applicants of talent program also joined the leasing market, these factors drove the overall market has gradually flourished.  The weakness of the stock market also squeezed out the capital which has entering the residential market. Finally, the return of leasing  residential units has risen to above 3%.

However, the current investors are still very reluctant, they are only interested in small units, so it is still difficult to find buyers for larger units and luxury houses, so the property market will not fully recover for the time being.

 If the government cooperates with measures to cancel the outdated limitation which have hindered the development of property market, the recovery of the property market will return to normal step by step. The property market returns to normal, and the government's revenue from land sales will naturally increase, and the fiscal deficit problem will naturally be solved. Otherwise, if there is a systematic collapse, Hong Kong will fall into the abyss in the coming decades.

 
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1. Hk is fourth in the rankings for FX traders., 2023-08-19 13:45:14

Hong Kong posted $694b in the net-gross turnover of OTC foreign exchange instruments, making it the fourth in the rankings for the best market for FX traders, a City Index study showed.

The market’s broadband speed is 145.32 mbps and it ranked 12 for cost of living.

Its economic rival Singapore , was at the top with a $929b turnover of OTC FX instruments. Next is China ($153b) and Japan ($433b). 

According to City Index, China enjoys a high market overlap score of 9.02/10 for how its time zone aligns with four key markets. 

2. Property giant Evergrande filed bankruptcy in US 2023-08-19 19:45:46

Property giant Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US as the real estate crisis in China deepens.

It will allow the heavily-indebted company to protect its assets in the US as it works on a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.

Evergrande defaulted on its huge debts in 2021, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets.

The move comes as problems in China's property market add to concerns about the world's second largest economy.

China Evergrande Group made the Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing in a New York court on Thursday.

3. Asian markets concerns about China's economy 2023-08-20 23:15:31

Asian markets were trying to find a firmer footing on Friday after a rough week, hammered by concerns about China's ailing economy and fears of U.S. rates staying higher for longer as long-term bond yields surged. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were up 0.1 percent after hitting a nine-month low the session before. It was, however, headed for a weekly loss of 2.8 percent, the third straight week of declines. 

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.4 percent and was down 3 percent on the week. 

Data early on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in July, a result that is likely to support market wagers that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to phase out monetary easing anytime soon. 

4. Asian markets concerns about China's economy 2023-08-20 23:15:33

Asian markets were trying to find a firmer footing on Friday after a rough week, hammered by concerns about China's ailing economy and fears of U.S. rates staying higher for longer as long-term bond yields surged. 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were up 0.1 percent after hitting a nine-month low the session before. It was, however, headed for a weekly loss of 2.8 percent, the third straight week of declines. 

Japan's Nikkei lost 0.4 percent and was down 3 percent on the week. 

Data early on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed in July, a result that is likely to support market wagers that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to phase out monetary easing anytime soon. 

5. China economy is in trouble 2023-08-21 20:38:10

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid into a bear market on Friday, having fallen more than 20% from its recent peak in January. Last week, the Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in 16 years, prompting the central bank to make its biggest defense of the currency on record by setting a much higher rate to the dollar than the estimated market value.

The issue is thatafter a rapid spurt of activity earlier this year following the lifting of Covid lockdowns, growth is stalling. Consumer prices are falling, a real estate crisis is deepening and exports are in a slump. Unemployment among youth has gotten so bad the government has stopped publishing the data.

6. Deals plunge in secondary market 2023-08-22 10:12:00

Transaction numbers in the 70 biggest residential estates near MTR lines slumped last month, with the number of those seeing zero sales doubling to 10 amid weak market sentiment.

Sale volumes dropped by 17.9 percent to 326 last month from June as more than half of the estates saw declines in transaction numbers, data from the Land Registry showed.

Analyzed by lines, transaction numbers for estates along the South Island strip halved, while those along the Tung Chung and Tuen Ma lines both plunged by more than 36 percent, according to Buggle Lau, chief analyst at Midland Realty.

By contrast, sales in developments along the Island line jumped approximately 27.8 percent, while estates adjacent to the East Rail Line also experienced a rise of around 11.4 percent, both defying the market trend, Lau noted.

7. Mainland students drivie up rental market 2023-08-23 12:30:01

Mainland students and professionals coming in through Hong Kong's talent scheme are driving up the city's rental market, with Novo Land in Tuen Mun seeing over 100 deals last month.

Novo Land, a project of Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016), recorded 105 rental transactions last month at an average rent of HK$33 per square foot, according to Centaline Property Agency.

Of course, this is coming as mainland students race to lock in their accommodation arrangements with just three more weeks to go before the academic semester begins.

A 297-square-foot one-bedroom flat in phase 1B of Novo Land was rented by a mainland student studying at Lingnan University for HK$12,500 per month, or HK$42.10 per sq ft, without any haggling whatsoever.

8. Projects only 55% units were sold 2023-08-24 12:59:32

Out of all the total projects accomplished in the January to June period, only 55% of the residential units were sold, according to JLL’s Residential Market Monitor. The slowdown in activity reflects the cautious approach of potential buyers. 

Especially when it is predicted that demand in the primary real estate market will continue to face challenges in the latter half of the year. 

Compared to the performance in the last five years, this was lower than the average sell-through rate of 78%.