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Highly leveraged lending strategies finally come to end

Damon Ho

Since first quarter of this year, the border reopening between China and Hong Kong boosts the recovery of the economy, Hong Kong people have also begun to return to neighboring city Shenzhen to enjoy the leisure travelling. They pursuit high price-performance ratio’s consumption, and spend on body massage, local cuisine & special drinks. Unlike the past mode of consumption, they showed less interests to inspect the showrooms of the newly residential projects.

In fact, the investors who are optimistic about the domestic property market have already entered the market, and those who have not yet entered the market will not enter the market in near future. Smart investors who stick to the national policy of residential premises not for speculating, will not re-enter the domestic property market in next few years. In this scenario, the border reopening policy had no positive effect to the property market.

Currently, many domestic private residential enterprises have been suffering the shortage of cash flow and face the defaults of corporate debts. The on-going projects are also lacking working capital to complete the construction work on schedule. Consequently, these residential premises may turn into uncompleted building and cannot be handed over to their clients on the target completion date. Those facts tell that highly leveraged lending strategies finally come to end. 

The fall in domestic property prices has produced a negative wealth effect, coupled with high unemployment rate, China's middle class have suddenly decreased, and overall consumption power has not been as strong as before. At present, those who come to Hong Kong are neither able to buy properties nor buy high-priced consumer goods. These kinds of consumption power have limited effect on boosting the local retail industry. 

Hong Kong developers have always been conservative, with borrowing ratios below 50% of net asset value, so even in today's inactive market, there will still be no disruption in capital flows. 

The current challenge of the property market is that Fed rate hike cycle is still not over, which has driven the potential buyers to become overly cautious, and they have repeatedly delayed the decision to enter the market, resulting in a significant reduction in transactions. 

Following the government relaxed the property mortgage policy earlier, it can take advantage of the situation to take back the real estate market’s spicy measures that have lost their practical function. This will strengthen the confidence of the public to re-enter the market. With the unemployment rate as low as 2.9%, wages rising steadily, high demands for home ownership, and a consistently high savings rate among Hong Kong people, the property market is expected to gradually return to normal with appropriate policy support from the government.

 
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