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Property price will rise five percent in second quarter

Damon Ho

Since the border reopening , local economic and property market have gradually recovered, private property index rose about 7.3% in the first quarter. Ranking and Valuation Department also declared the property index gained 3.3% in the first two months of this year. As expected, the index would rise 1.5% more in March. In consequence, the acuminated gain of this index would increase about 4.8% in total. Based on this trend, the experts estimated the property prices will add another 5 to 7% in the second quarter.

If the experts' estimation are accurate, property prices will rebound by 10 to 15% in the first two quarters, and the total gain of the property prices are expected to recover from the cumulative loss in the last year. At present, the positive news is gradually emerging, and the pace of interest rate hike in the United States has slowed down, which will have a constructive effect on the Hong Kong property market. In addition, the newly protection law of guaranteeing the handover unfurnished first-hand residential projects has stabilized China property market.  Moreover, it also has an incidentally stabilized effect on the Hong Kong property market.

After the border reopening of Macau, Hong Kong's neighboring city, gambling revenues have returned to 70% of the pre-lockdown level, of which about 40% of its revenues are from Hong Kong visitors, which prove that Hong Kong people still have strong spending power, if there is an appropriate policy, Hong Kong people will gradually strengthen their consumption in Hong Kong.

The pace of recovery in Hong Kong is relatively slow compared to that of Macau, it is mainly because  Hong Kong government still has no special policies to attract China and foreign tourists, so business and pure tourism activities have not fully resumed.  If so, the relevant departments should re-examine the relevant policies.

In the second half of this year, the global economy is still full of uncertainties, and if there is no massive political and economic turmoil, Hong Kong's economy and property market will continue to recover, so the experts estimated that property prices will rise by 3 to 5% in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the estimate of the peak of immigration tide will gradually slowdown from next year, and coupled with the government's continuous efforts to increase the import of talents, it is anticipated that the Hong Kong government's fiscal revenue will gradually stabilize starting from next year.

 
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1. Singaporeans' keenness to travel to HK rose 2023-04-16 11:20:22

Singaporeans' keenness to travel to Hong Kong recently rose, thanks to the city’s “Hello Hong Kong” campaign.

Data from YouGov showed that during the campaign period, consideration of Hong Kong as a travel destination started on an upward trend.

During the start of the campaign on 2 March, travel consideration rose to 14.3%. 

“By 20 March, when the campaign winners were revealed, consideration of Hong Kong as a travel destination gained another 1.2 percentage points to reach 15.5%,” YouGov reported.

Based on the survey, almost half (41%) of Singaporeans want to visit Hong Kong due to its “overall value for money.”

2. Flats for elderly provide in rental and 2023-04-16 11:23:29

Flats designated for elderly will be provided in both rental and sale flat projects, chairman of Hong Kong Housing Society (HKHS) Walter Chan Kar-lol said.

In a media gathering, Chan said lands in Hong Kong are precious, so it would be difficult for the Housing Society to develop a project purely for elderly units in future.

Hence, the HKHS will develop projects in mixed purposes, including housing estates required redevelopment, which elderly flats will be included in both rental and sale flat projects.

Projects under mixed development model include Pak Wo Road project in Fanling which is in construction, and planned redevelopment projects in Garden Estate in Kwun Tong and Ming Wah Dai Ha in Shau Kei Wan.

3. Morgan Stanley has raised property price forecast 2023-04-16 12:08:50

Morgan Stanley has raised the property price forecast for Hong Kong this year to a 10 percent rise from 5 percent earlier.

The number of transactions in the primary market will rebound by 28 percent and the secondary market by 15 percent in 2023 from a low base in 2022, as interest rate peaks and the border with the mainland reopened, the investment bank said.

Rents of street shops will also rise by 5 percent this year after a 7 percent drop in 2022 and retail sales growth projection is revised up by 6 percentage points to 15 percent as mainland tourists return to the city, it estimates.

Hong Kong Property Services is even more upbeat, expecting local home prices to rise up to 15 percent this year.

4. Secondary home sales dived to nine months low 2023-04-17 11:26:30

Secondary home sales at the ten major housing estates slumped to a nine-month low over the weekend amid the booming primary market, according to data from Centaline Property Agency.

Only three deals were recorded at two of the blue-chip estates - down 72.7 percent from last week's 11 deals.

Two transactions were at Taikoo Shing, Quarry Bay, which broke the zero-deal record of the previous weekend. The latest transaction was a two-bedroom flat sold at HK$11.95 million, with a book gain of HK$4.52 million as it jumped 61 percent from the original price of HK$7.43 million 12 years ago. The owner had cut the price by HK$550,000 before successfully selling the 592-square-foot flat.

5. INTEREST RATES EXPECTED TO FALL 2023-04-17 18:47:54

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says increases in borrowing costs are likely to be "temporary" once high inflation is brought under control.

The Bank of England has been raising interest rates since December 2021, taking them from 0.1% to 4.25%.

This has raised mortgage payments for many homeowners.

Central banks in the UK, the US, Europe and other nations have been lifting interest rates to combat the rate of price rises, otherwise known as inflation.

6. SMEs expect sales growth in 2023 2023-04-18 10:39:12

Three out of four small businesses in Hong Kong (74%) are expecting growth in their sales this year, data from CPA Australia's Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey showed.

CPA Australia said border reopening and improved economy boosted businesses' confidence. Six in 10 businesses expect economic growth in 2023.

“This optimistic sentiment can be partly attributed to the recovery from the low base of the past three years,” added Cliff Ip, Deputy Divisional President of CPA Aus

7. GBA com gained confident after border reopening 2023-04-19 12:41:52

Companies in the GBAhave become more confident with their business following the resumption of travel between the Mainland and Hong Kong, data from the GBA Business Confidence Index (GBAI) showed.

According to the GBAI, the business confidence of GBA companies jumped 11.8 points to 51.3, marking the first adobe-50 print since Q421.

Business expectations of GBA companies likewise rose, leaping 16.4 points to 61.5.

8. Hong Kong’s high-end hotels rebound soon 2023-04-20 09:59:40

Hong Kong’s high-end hotels will likely rebound and achieve faster growth this year, according to JLL.

Based on the report, hotel transaction activity will pick up in Q4 and will likely reach US$1b. 

JLL also expects the Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) of high-end hotels to rebound to pre-Covid levels in 2024.

In February 2023, the RevPAR of High Tariff A hotels jumped 161% YoY to $1,257, which JLL said is the strongest growth amongst all hotel segments. 

9. House 12 Mount Nicholson on The Peak sold 2023-04-20 23:10:18

House 12 at the Mount Nicholson project on The Peak was sold for $577.4m or $82,000 per square foot (sq ft).

According to data from Savills, House 12 spans 7,042 square feet (sq ft) with a 2,751 sq ft garden and a 1,970 sq ft terrace.

Publicly available data showed that the unnamed buyer of the property paid 5% of the purchase price on the signing of the Preliminary Agreement for Sale and Purchase (PASP).

The buyer will further deposit 5% of the purchase price upon the signing of the ASP.